💣 Japan Just PULLED THE TRIGGER—A $20T MELTDOWN is Imminent!

💣 Japan Just PULLED THE TRIGGER—A $20T MELTDOWN is Imminent!

I’m going to show you the scariest chart in the market today because there’s a near inverse relationship between the Japanese yen and the NASDAQ 100. As you’re about to see, we’re weeks away from tech stocks getting crushed. This morning, top Japanese officials pulled the triggers. They’re now fully backing a Bank of Japan rate hike at their December 19th meeting. And this announcement, it sent yields on 10ear JGB yields soaring right alongside the Japanese yen. And what this is threatening to do is unwind that $20 trillion widowmaker trade that we call the Japanese carry trade. And when this thing rolls over, tech stocks, they don’t just correct, they get crushed. And you can forget about all those liquidity issues I’ve warned about because this trade, it could lop off 15 to 25% off the indices overnight, just like it did back in August. The problem right now is the positioning is even more lopsided, threatening an even greater downside move. Now, stay tuned because I’m going to break down what’s happening in Japan. I’m going to go over those charts and more importantly, I’m going to show you how to profit on this generational move in the markets. And real quick, you may remember last week we gave our CTA timer pro subscribers a buy signal on silver at the perfect inflection point. That trade now less than a week old, it’s up 14%. And 90% of our open trades are up right now. So, if you’re tired of guessing when it comes to market and you want these signals to start making more money than you ever have before, grab those links in the description below. Use a coupon code for your free 30-day trial. Stay tuned to the end of the show for more information. Now, let’s be clear about what just happened in Japan because it’s not normal. Now, in Japan, central bank independence is treated like a sacred religion. Governments, they don’t really comment on rate decisions ever at all. And yet key members of Prime Minister Saiaki’s government wouldn’t try to stop the Bank of Japan if it decides to raise interest rates in December. So that’s the equivalent of the US Treasury Secretary and the Commerce Secretary publicly greenlining a Fed rate hike in the middle of a stock market meltup. This doesn’t happen unless the government wants higher rates, and they do. And these comments come heightened speculation that the BOJ will increase the benchmark rate to 3/4 of a percent at the end of its next policy meeting on December 19th following remarks from Governor Uea on Monday because Tokyo inflation right now is running at levels that the BOG has been dreaming about for decades. They’ve got sticky wagdriven inflation and it’s better. It’s above their target. So the BOG finally has the political cover to defend its 2% inflation target with actual rate hikes, not just job bon like they’ve done for decades. And the market, well, the reaction was violent and instant. 10ear JGB yields ripped to the highest since the yield curve control era ended. The yen exploded higher and the great 20 trillion yen carry trade unwind that everyone said was over in August and Ivorn is coming back just got its margin call noticed. We’re in the final two weeks before the BOJ potentially lights the fuse on the biggest 4C leverage event since co. But here’s the part that nobody’s talking about yet. When this thing rolls over, the opportunities to profit, they’re going to be generational. You’re going to be talking about this for decades. So stick with me. I want to walk you through every domino is about to fall in Japan. Show you the charts that are screaming warning signs that you need to act now. and more importantly tell you exactly how to position yourself so this crisis puts a ton of money in your pocket instead of taking it out like it’s going to do for everyone else. Now let’s walk through this step by step because a single 25 basis point hike on December 19th it sounds well pretty small and it is until you realize it’s the match that ignites the $20 trillion of borrowed yen rocket fuel that’s been propping up global assets for years now. First up, there is a strong justification for a rate hike that is now ironclad. Tokyo core CPI for November printed out at 2.8% year-over-year. It’s hotter than the 2.7% expected and it’s got the highest services inflation in decade. Now, this isn’t the transit energy-driven stuff that the Bank of Japan’s been dealing with for years and they can just ignore. This is wage back. It’s sticky. It’s domestic demand inflation. In spring 2026, wage talks are already shaping up for the biggest increases since the 1990s. Shunto predictions north of 5% at major firms. And wage inflation, it’s the most feared by central bankers because rising wages, well, they believe it leads to increased demand. Of course, as demand goes up, inflation goes right along with it. And let’s look for some validation here. Let’s check out this chart, some US data for some proof. Let’s look at the consumer price index in blue versus average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory employees in red. And you can see periods of rising wages. It leads to rising inflation as businesses frontr run that. Now, the BOJ has been waiting 30 years for this exact cocktail. And they’re not going to let it go cold. They want to raise rates. In fact, overnight interest rate swaps are now pricing in roughly 80% odds of a December 19 hike. And that was before today’s government greenlight headline hit the tape and validated by rising 2-year JGB yields. And with inflation again over the BOG’s 2% target and expected to rise due to wage hikes, a quarter point hike, now it’s baked in the cake. What happens next? Well, we have fiscal stimulus. Taichi unveiled an economic stimulus package last Friday with fresh spending tolling 17.7 trillion yen. and she’s focused on addressing rising costs of living with steps including expanded utility subsidies and a cut in gasoline taxes. Now, those cuts, well, some of the experts are already saying the inflation is going to cool off, but to a mere 2.5%. Guess what? It’s still over the BOJ’s 2% target. Meanwhile, national inflation, it remains close to 3% per year. So, that means the BOJ, they’re going to have to start raising rates to get ahead of the curve. And the problem is, well, the Japanese economy is starting to heat up, too. Industrial production rose 1.4% in October from September and rose 1 and a.5% from a year earlier. Car production rebounded as the US Japan trade deal cut auto tariffs down to 15% from 27 and a half while AI demand gave a boost to information and communications equipment. So as you can see in this next chart of the US data, we’re going to look at the consumer price index again in blue versus industrial production red. And what I want you to see is that rising industrial production, it pulls inflation higher. And tacking on that, the jobless rate held steady at 2.6% providing further validation for a December rate hike. What comes next? Well, the JGB market has gone allin. Today, 10-year JGB yields punched to 1.935%. That’s the highest since 2007. And the 30-year Treasury auction saw the strongest demand since 2019. Now, Ray Taro Kamura, a senior fixed income strategist at Ax Investment Manager, he nailed it. It’s likely that the unexpected strong results were driven by the fact that many investors considered acceptable to increase exposure to super long bonds when yields exceeded 3.4%. Now translation compared to alternatives say like US treasuries JGB yields are finally at a place where capital can come home where you’re going to see insurance companies want to buy bonds. What we’re seeing is demand here is real. Plus, on top of that, get this. Dealers have asked the government to cut the issuance of super long bonds, and market expectations for the next rate hike after this one, well, they’re not till much later. So, what this does is bode for demand at the long end of the curve. But the 2-year at the shorter end, demand is outright collapsing. So, what we’re seeing here is a classic steepener case. The bond vigilantes have officially taken the wheel from the BOJ. They’re driving rates up and this is going to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to continue to hike. And we know based on US data, two-year yields, they lead policy rates. Let’s check out this chart of the Federal Funds rate in blue versus two-year Treasury in red. And you can clearly see where yields go, the Fed follows. So when Japanese yields rise this fast, well, the math on borrowing yen to buy US assets stops working and big time. Now, let’s take a look at the next step here because the yen is ripping off faces of investors right now. In fact, the US dollar Japanese yen sliced straight through 155 this week on the headlines to low and close today right around 154.92. That’s a 6 to 7% move in less than a month. And Reuters, well, they literally ran this headline this morning. Weak Japanese yen is a ticking time bomb warning that these levels of carry trade becomes completely unstable. And here’s what I want you to understand. This is what you really need to know because every 1% the yen strengthen it forces somewhere between 200 to 400 billion dollars of notational unwinds. And that just depends on whose estimates you trust. And we’re already halfway through August move. And that hike, it hasn’t happened yet. We’re about two weeks away. And we know based on the relationship between the federal funds rate still shown in blue versus the nominal US dollar index in red that when central banks raise rates, it’s a bullish indicator for the currency. What you expect here is speculators, investors are all going to go long the yen. They’re going to drive it higher. And when the yen takes off, the carry trade unwind is going to accelerate. And here’s the final stage. This is the one that turns American wealth into the next destruction event. And you don’t want to get trapped in this. Now, once you see these charts, but first, let’s get this set up here. We’re going to look at a two-year chart. You’re going to see FXY. This is the Japanese yen ETF. This is something you can look at every day. It’s going to be in the green and red bars. And we’re going to compare this to the QQQ. This is the NASDAQ 100 ETF. That’s going to be in purple. And I want you to understand here, there’s a correlation. It’s negative0.88. Basically, it’s near perfect. Now, let’s take a look at these charts cuz they’re going to completely blow you away. We’re going to step through them pretty quick. Now, we’re going to go back two years. I want you to see the yen. It’s collapsing straight down. What happens? You see the NASDAQ 100, it’s shooting higher. Then, what happens? The yen bottoms. It takes straight off and goes up and next thing you know what happens? Tech stocks, they get crushed. But then next thing you know, it goes the other direction. The yen comes crumbling right back down to those lows. And what did you expect to see? That’s right. The NASDAQ 100, it takes off. That is of course until the yen rallies again. And there you have a massive correction in course tech. Now this last stage, everyone says, everyone is bullish on AI, but look at this. It was the yen. It went straight down validating this carry trade. It sent tech stocks shooting higher. Of course, the risk right now that we’re facing is a massive unwind of this trade because here’s what I want you to be thinking. If the BOJ hikes rates, and again, this is the base case now, and the US dollar Japanese yen breaks 160, which isn’t far off, the CTAs, the risk parity funds, the Japanese margin account, the bazillion dollars of structured products that are sitting on this trade, they’re all going to start to hit the sell button at the same time. And we’ve seen this before. And we’re not talking about a healthy correction. We’re talking about a 2022 style draw down that’s going to be compressed into weeks because the leverage has only gotten bigger since August. And that’s the spiral. There’s two weeks left on the clock and almost nobody is positioned for it. Now, the Bank of Japan is almost certainly hiking in December 19th. The government has given them the green light. The data is screaming for it and the bond market is forcing their hands. The yen, it’s the last key here and it’s doing its job. It’s starting to head higher. And this means sometimes between now and the end of January, things are going to get violent. We’re going to see an accelerated 2022 style riskoff event driven entirely by what’s coming out of Tokyo. We’re going to see tech stocks, growth stocks, crypto, small caps, anything bought with borrowed yen, it’s going to get off first and it’s going to get hit the hardest. History says the NASDAQ loses somewhere around 18 to 30% in weeks, not months. That becomes our base case. Now, what do you do right now today? Not waiting a couple weeks because I want you to get miles ahead of us. I want you to make a ton of money. You need to raise real cash. Remember Jeffrey Gunlock, the bond king, he said 20% minimum in your portfolio. Now you see why. Because when this unwind hits, cash is become king overnight. There’s two assets you want to load the boat on when this thing starts to hit. Long-term bonds, think back in August, they did really well, as did gold and silver mining stocks. And you want to look to either be long the Japanese yen. If you’re a long trader, that’s your trade. You can look at FXY. If you’re a tactical short trader, again, you got to have the stomach, the knowledge, and the tools. Don’t do this if you’re not sure what to do. Then you can take the short side of this. And this is exactly why we built products like CTA Retirement Pro, so you don’t have to guess on these trades. And here’s the last thing. When this move is over, even if the Fed doesn’t cut in December, they’re going to be forced to slash rates in Q1. And dip buyers, they’re going to make an absolute fortune, but only if you have the cash to take advantage of this generational buying opportunity. and think you want a position now, you’ll thank me later. Now, let’s dive into how we nailed that silver trade and how we’re going to nail this Japanese carry trade unwind. This has everything to do with CTA timer pro. And here you can see that silver trade. We had an expected win rate of 63% 7day return of over 14%. Now, how do we do this? Well, each and every day we take a look at the machine position across the broad equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets. And what we’re simply looking to do is position you ahead of a big wave of machine buying and get you out before they sell. Now, here’s what a lot of people don’t know. Machines, they trade based on threshold levels. I know exactly where they’re at. And even better, I fully optimize them. I know exactly which ones trigger put the most money and the biggest probabilities in your pocket. Now, that’s a huge advantage because when you have a fully optimized system, it makes trading easy. You have better results, better win rate, and a smaller draw down. And this is how easy it is. You’re going to sign up for your free 30-day trial. You scroll all the way down to the bottom, click on the latest date. And there you’re going to find an update on our existing trades, the new trades for that day, including risk control levels, and every trade generated on the long and the short side based on our fully optimized system. So, here’s what you get. You get the tradable signals. You get my opinions on the best trades. You get full risk control levels, tracking of all open trades, returns, the weekly update, and again, here’s the best part. You get a free 30-day trial. So, whether you’re brand new to trading or an experienced trader, you’re going to see why our system is the best. puts more money in your pocket than anyone else. All you have to do grab those links in the description below. Use a coupon code for your free 30-day trial. And with that, I’m Steve Van Meter. Thanks for watching. Thanks for being fans. Bye now.

Top Japanese officials just pulled the trigger on unwinding the $20 trillion Yen carry trade that could send tech stocks crashing 15-25% overnight and create a generational buying opportunity for those who are prepared.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-04/key-japan-officials-would-go-along-with-a-boj-december-rate-hike
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-27/tokyo-inflation-beats-forecast-keeping-boj-on-rate-hike-path
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-01/boj-s-ueda-sends-clear-hint-at-chance-of-december-rate-hike
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-04/japan-s-30-year-bond-sale-sees-strongest-demand-since-2019
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/widowmaker-awakens-jgb-panic-yen-surge-and-global-deleveraging-trap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-28/japan-s-two-year-bond-sale-demand-weaker-than-12-month-average

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