Why Bond Yields are Rising Everywhere.

Talking about US resscion, you keeping an eye on moodys resscion prediction model, I think next one week Thursday

So basically buy more Gold.

The central banks can always over-ride the bond markets.

We saw this after 2008.

It wasn’t so easy in the Euro-zone, but eventually Mario Draghi worked out how the ECB could intervene to stop the bond markets destroying the Euro-zone.

"if yields rise your tax could increase to pay for the increased debt" . Erm, the UK spends 350b on benefits and collects 320b in tax and NI. Tax rises arent paying off any debt, i can assure you. Not even the interest on the debt.

Rising bond yields aren't inherently a sign of economic trouble. In many cases, higher yields simply reflect improving economic conditions. When growth is strong and inflation expectations rise, yields on assets like U.S. Treasury bonds tend to increase as investors demand higher returns. Rather than signaling weakness, this can indicate confidence in the economy and expectations of continued expansion.

Another reason rising yields are not necessarily problematic is that they provide better returns for savers and investors. Higher yields translate into increased income from bonds, which can benefit retirees, pension funds, and other long-term investors. At the same time, rising yields often occur alongside actions by central banks such as the Federal Reserve, which may raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. In this context, higher yields help moderate inflation by making borrowing more expensive and encouraging more sustainable levels of spending.

It is also important to recognize that bond markets are constantly adjusting to new information. Changes in yields are a normal part of financial cycles, driven by shifts in growth expectations, inflation, and monetary policy. Moderate increases in yields are therefore a routine feature of a functioning market, not a sign of instability.

Bond yields often rise before an economic upturn because markets are forward-looking. Investors in government bonds anticipate stronger growth and higher inflation, so they demand higher yields ahead of time, pushing rates up before the real economy improves. Central banks like the Federal Reserve may also signal or begin tightening policy in expectation of recovery, reinforcing this move. Don't forget, Trump signed the OBBB less than a year ago, and it generally takes two years for tax cuts to produce measurable effects. Tax cuts often take time to show results because businesses need to be confident the higher after-tax profits are lasting before committing to hiring or expansion, and investment projects themselves take time to plan and complete. Consumers also tend to increase spending gradually, so demand builds slowly, delaying the full impact on growth and employment.

Tax cuts can incentivize hiring by increasing after-tax profits, giving businesses more cash to expand their workforce. Lower taxes reduce the cost of operating, making it easier for firms to afford additional employees. When companies expect to keep more of their earnings, they are more willing to invest in growth, including hiring and training workers. Tax cuts can also boost consumer demand by leaving households with more disposable income, which encourages businesses to hire to meet higher demand.

Reminds me of Liz Truzz's mini-budget, and the markets reaction to it. Liz did not last long.

Watch this space: We are going to see financial repression, whereby the Fed keeps rates lower than inflation to reduce debt levels. It's essentially what Japan is doing: Debase the Yen to make debt servicing easier. The UK cannot debase though because of its huge trade deficit, as you rightly alluded too. Japan runs a huge surplus. Bottom line here: the Fed's next move and rising debt/GDP ratio/debasement = a masive gold bull narrative.

It's when bond yield spreads expand a lot you start to worry, this is not happening yet.

Come on, do some research on the forced sale of bonds by pensionfunds because of their investment strategy. They were just over leveraged. This had more to do with bad investment strategy as with the Truss mini budget.

Wouldn't surprise me if japan collapses first

Interesting video, thanks