Why Japan’s Government is on the Brink of Collapse (Again)

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Yet another Japanese Prime Minister has found themselves embroiled in a financial scandal, with Shigeru Ishiba seeing his approval hitting record lows. So in this video, we’ll explain what’s happened and whether we could see a fifth PM in as many years.

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Sources:

Gift voucher scandal & Ishiba’s response:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-pm-apologises-giving-out-gifts-clouding-budget-prospects-2025-03-14/
https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2025031700335/?cx_recs_click=true 
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/03/20/japan/politics/pm-kishida-gift-vouchers/ 
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250319/p2a/00m/0na/018000c 

Post-scandal polling:
https://observingjapan.substack.com/p/that-sinking-feeling
https://observingjapan.substack.com/p/tracking-the-japanese-governments-423 
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15671613
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/03/3e30892c96e2-urgent-ishiba-cabinet-support-rate-dives-to-27-lowest-since-taking-office.html 

Inflation and rice price:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/ishiba-plans-powerful-inflation-measures-ahead-of-election
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250325/p2g/00m/0bu/014000c 

Trump’s tariffs on foreign cars & Japan response:
https://www.ft.com/content/25d5bbfb-a567-4778-a15a-f3c8f56e2bea
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/03/27/economy/auto-tariff-reax/ 
https://www.jri.co.jp/MediaLibrary/file/report/research/pdf/15624.pdf 

Chances of ousting Ishiba:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/03/18/japan/politics/ishiba-replacement/
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/03/24/japan/politics/ishiba-support-rate-tanks/ 

Resignation polling:
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15671613 
https://observingjapan.substack.com/p/that-sinking-feeling

26 Comments

  1. Ishida's 'every option' considered needs to include the complete decoupling with US dependency. I was just watching a great video by Cyrus Janssen on the subject, and I've commented that Japan seriously needs reconsider its relationship with the US, while opening itself up to China and/or perhaps joining ASEAN as a periphery partner.

  2. Japan: give a few $660 dollar gift cards – calling for resignation
    USA: lose a trillion dollars in stock market value two times in the span of a month – no repercussions

  3. Blows the mind this makes the news in Japan. Such a unique culture. In my country there was a scandal when a local health board started giving out $100 gift vouchers to get people to take the Covid Vaccine. The scandal wasn’t in the gift cards themselves but in the leftovers being use by staff to go to a fancy restaurant. That was tax payers money. This is not.

  4. To be honest, I can kind of see Ishiba’s story to be true, because that’s exactly how I’d react in such a situation. It’s also such a minor amount of money that it doesn’t strike me as corruption. I’m not claiming to be familiar with Japanese politics, just claiming that I can sort of understand the situation Ishiba is in personally.

  5. Why do polls matter in Japan? They always vote for the same party anyway.
    £600 in gifts seems irrelevant.
    This PM seemed like he had genuinely decent policies.

  6. japan is a fail** state just as the us will be in less then 12y if they fail to adres there debt…and stop fueeling there econemy bye debt….if ur from usa next decade you will be downsizing you will live in a closet just as in ja**n…..

  7. Crazy as it gets. Blame to America's corruption for many years. The Japan's government has low expectations. In Ishiba-san's cases popularity went top to bottom. In a grain of saltiness.