US Stocks End Mixed, Nvidia Shares Hit Record High; Asia Rangebound; Steady Start On D-Street?
every morning the countdown begins for the markets with meticulous research and analysis designed to help you capitalize on the trading day beaming live from the CNBC TV8 Motilal Oswald studio [Music] [Music] good morning you’re with us here on a fresh new edition of Bazar Morning Call Thursday morning we are coming to you live as always from the CNBC TV1818 Motal Studios uh in two good days can we see a repeat today build on the gains that’s the big question i am Prashant with me my colleagues Nigel and Suri guys good morning
hi uh good morning folks well you know yesterday we managed to break out of our uh long-standing trading range and this morning we’ve not woken up to you know any untoward incident or any you know out of the park kind of news so maybe who knows bulls keep marching on
well it feels a little weird right i mean no big news point overnight so but let’s see uh and today we have expiry as well so let’s see how it plays out
absolutely and last night was kind of from Wall Street not very much by way of cues it’s kind of flatterish actually but markets in the no missiles on social media either
on social media no actually there are a few actually there are a few but uh you know that’s the that that’s the times that we are in now uh just to take it from the top the uh US market and the S&P at least was largely unchanged S&P 500 that is largely unchanged from uh the previous close actually was actually absolutely unchanged but it remains the headline is not that uh the headline is it’s just less than 1% away from an all-time high it’s it’s been that way uh you know the one sort of as we get into the end of the month uh there seems to be some selling which is happening i mean two days in a row now we got to above 6100 and then the market kind of sort of sold off and closed under it so we’ll see if there are some out close bunched up to the end of the month but that’s that’s very very near term nasdaq about 0.21% higher the Dow was down about 0.25 so kind of mixed uh signals in that sense uh I just want to talk about one one or two single stocks nvidia was up 4% and that’s hit a new all-time high that is part of the magnificent fantastic five seven however you want to count it but the big tech right so Nvidia uh hits a new all-time high the graphics will come up on your screen uh the other one of course is BP British Petroleum british Petroleum at one point was trading up 10% it finally closed about 1 and a half% higher there there were reports that Shell is in an early stages of a potential acquisition shell BP I mean now that that could be a big one perhaps implications here in India as well because you’ve got you know uh the companies listed uh in India I mean in terms of cashrol so we’ll see uh macro markets not very much US 10ear was down one basis point so unchanged 4.29 29 4.3% oil prices went up a little bit i mean the stock of oil which was reported by I mean the US government that that fell more than expected but nothing 68 we’re right there pat there so not not very much now the other bit of news of course is uh coming out of Europe and this was actually happening while we were still trading i mean some bit of it the Trump press conference with the NATO secretary general Mark Rut happened while at about 1:30 2:00 uh and you know we’ll play out some of those comments from Trump but the headline is as expected NATO has agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 the question though is uh how much of this is actually going to happen how much of it is rhetoric uh Trump’s term remember ends in 2029 so uh you know do we really have the ability to forecast beyond that point how things will be but for now I mean uh you know given all the threats the the they’ve agreed to five to reach 5% of GDP by 2035 spain withheld from the commitment and and you know President Trump then threatened to increase tariffs on Spain uh and but he was positive otherwise as far as Europe is concerned and NATO is concerned and he basically said that we are here to help Europe protect their countries remember he’s threatened to pull out of Europe pull out of NATO by saying “Well why should we spend all the money on NATO to protect you while you are not stepping up your spending?” That basically has been the grouse for for a very long time from President Trump uh so that’s the new slope but I don’t think there are any real implications straight away you know defense defense stocks run actually if you look at even defense stocks yesterday it’s not as if they were zooming up or anything is well advertised in that sense here in India for example defense index was down 2% it was the biggest loser and actually for the last two sessions it’s been you know seeing a little bit of profit booking uh I’ll just tie in the levels so yesterday we got a good rally on the nifty and I was saying this yesterday same time that day before there was perhaps for some a little bit of hesitation whether the peace will hold but yesterday it became clear and the market marched on we ended at about 25244 we need to take out 25317 levels which is the high of the week uh and then after that I mean then you open up further upside levels the weekly upper bullinger band stands at 25,823 uh so that is the target on the downside uh if you just look at the supports 25,55 which is the 40hourly exponential moving average and then the 20-day moving average which is 24,897 bank Nifty needs to close i mean moving on to the next index bank nifty needs to close above 57,049 49 and here the upper weekly bowlinger band which becomes the target next target is 58,877 support again same uh sort of averages 40hourly is 56,260 and the second support at the 20-day which is 56,40 levels give nifty will give you a quick sense of how we are likely to start it’s up another 40 points surely so quiet in terms of news headlines for a change it was the the big headline was the NATO one really with the membershing to increase the individual defense spend from 2% to 5% of GDP and all the sort of you know headlines that you had around that by the way uh Mr trump also was commenting on Iran uh he said that he doesn’t see Iran getting back in the quote unquote nuclear business and then he went on to say that if they do try to get back then we’ll be there you know you can interpret it in any way you want but basically uh they’re watching and they’re not allowing Iran uh to go back to their nuclear program uh there are talks as well i mean that’s what uh you know Trump said some of the other aids from Washington are also indicating that talks with Iran could resume next week but the Iranian side has not you know confirmed that so let’s see how this plays out uh and then of course he was going on to uh deny the the recent uh you know security reports that came out in the US suggesting that the program has not been entirely dismantled but only set back by by a couple of months there’s apparently a briefing that the US defense secretary is going to be doing later this evening to perhaps set the record straight on what was destroyed and you know what really happened the obliterated comment that the US president made anyway uh something interesting from the Fed because yesterday was day two of the the Fed testimony that continued and again the Fed chair continued to indicate that they’ll be data dependent but aside of that the Fed is now looking at the proposal of easing capital requirements for large banks on Wall Street this could be really significant and a big departure norms were tightened after the global financial crisis and now there seems to be a growing clamor to ease some of those norms what I’m talking about is the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio it was uh taken higher after the GFC and now they’re saying there are enough capital buffers with large uh you know Wall Street banks perhaps it’s a good time to uh reduce the sense of uh you know that leverage or that that particular norm so let’s watch for this uh Asian markets this morning they’re mixed largely rangebound but the Japanese market actually is doing very well it’s up and about almost a percent higher on the Japanese nikai the mainland China market the Hong Kong markets they’re subdued you can see on the screens there hen is down about 7/10en of a percent for us I mean We had a final break out of the trading range yesterday the bulls prevailed 25,200 has been taken out uh so let’s look at the distance from the highs the nifty is just about 4% away from the all-time high the bank nifty is you know barely half a percent away from uh you know clinching that level again the midcap index about 3.4% small cap index is a little further off 5% away from the all-time high so both US equities and Indian markets flirting once again with 52- week highs uh the fund flow situation continues to be really patchy and mixed again we had selling from FIS but you have to remember that all the fundraising and the block action data could be skewed fia sold off stocks worth about 2,400 crores yesterday in the cash market domestic institutions were buyers so it was nicely offset almost an equal amount of buying and selling uh so net result was not uh very impactful in terms of flows of the market uh just to talk about some stocks since we’re talking about fundraising I’ll keep an eye out on more names au Small Finance Bank the board is going to be meeting on the 28th to decide their fundraising plans it could include equity and Canfin Homes is also looking at a mix of equity and debt raise and on the equity side it could be a,000 crores of a QIP as well so we’ll be watching for some of these names nigel
well I’ll tell you what today’s expiry day and the bulls will want to drive home the advantage so we have been in this 800 point range on the nifty the good news is we’re getting into expiry day at the high point and the bulls will want to end the series with a bit of a flourish let’s see how that goes first up in terms of the rollover picture both on the nifty and the nifty bank more or less in line with what we’ve seen in terms of averages so that’s in line moving to what happened with regard to the FIS on the index futures they covered some mild shots in yesterday’s trading session they remain net short with closure on 77% of their positions on the short side the interesting aspect is if you look at the index options data both the FIS and the clients there was some sense of writing of puts in yesterday’s trading session and that’s heartening right I mean on both those two FIS as well as clients but for the markets on the whole the call writers they still believe they’re in the game so the bears believe they can defend the higher levels even in yesterday’s trading session if you’re looking at you know strikes at around 25,200 call well that was fairly active 25,250 call 25,300 call all of of them were fairly active in yesterday’s trading session with a good amount of open interest build up so at higher levels the bears believe they can defend it so just plugging in the numbers you know if you plug in the options data with the premium and you look at the recent high the reference point or the resistance mark you’re looking at on the upside is 25,320 that’s the recent high right a couple of sessions ago we went out there so that’s the important marker and also you’re looking at around 25,250 on the upside support zones 25,50 25,100 that’s the important mark you’re looking at yesterday the nifty bank actually was off color but in today’s trading session you’ll want to keep an eye out on that and as long as it’s holding above the first reference point at around 20 DMA you’ll see that this one in fact is pretty much good for more so we’ll have to keep an eye out on this uh large constitute of the index the banking names yesterday a little under the weather today they’ll have to perform and the IT index I’m going to keep an eye out on that because the IT index got hammered remember when the NASDAQ was getting hit we had the IT index as well that got hit now the NASDAQ is on the verge of making a fresh all-time high but the IT index the nifty IT index well it’s still a distance away it’s actually 15% away from its recent 52- week high so I want to see whether or not the IT index as well has further legs in it in the last couple of sessions that has come back in terms of strength stock that I’m looking at is BEAL it’s corrected as you’ll mention NATO looking to spend more on defense you know this one could be a potential beneficiary if India needs to be a bigger constitute in terms of exports and also it’s ended closer to around the 20 DMA 20 DMA is around 395 rupees if that level holds out maybe in fact frontline name valuation’s pretty okay and there is an export opportunity as well I’ll keep an eye out on be with that 395 as the first reference point back to you guys
okay all right got it thanks for that Nigel so let’s quickly get started with the equity call of the morning Lawrence Balan of CLSA says the nifty looks all to resume the original breakout from the February April double bottom pattern he says a close above 25,116 to 25,0002 would confirm the resumption of the original base breakout that supports an upside target of 26,000 triple3 essentially a retest of the 2024 highs at the stock level he says they feature Industri Finance and Chola Mandlam investments as buy candidates so basically the nifty has closed above those critical targets or levels that Lawrence was talking about so let’s say sounding upbeat on the technicals absolutely and uh you know we’ll uh speak with him later over the coming days as
U.S. stock market ended mixed on Wednesday, pausing a two-day rally as the fragile Israel-Iran cease fire continued to hold and investors watched over a second day of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 106.59 points, or 0.25%, to 42,982.43, while the S&P 500 eased 0.02 points, or 0.00%, to 6,092.16. The Nasdaq Composite closed 61.02 points, or 0.31%, higher at 19,973.55.
Asian markets traded mixed today, as investors continued to weigh the ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.4% and the Topix rose 0.19%. South Korea’s Kospi and the Kosdaq were flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening.
Meanwhile, Gift Nifty was trading around 25,290 level, a premium of nearly 38 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices.
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