Il Giappone ha appena mandato in rovina l’economia globale: Tokyo minaccia di vendere 1.100 milia…
Japan may have just taken the first step toward detonating a global financial earthquake. And the world’s central bankers, investors, and policymakers are holding their breath. At the center of this unfolding storm lies a number, $1.1 trillion. That’s the value of US Treasury bonds currently held by Japan, the largest foreign holder of American government debt. And now for the first time in over four decades, Tokyo is not only questioning the wisdom of this holding, it’s openly threatening to sell. This is not just economic friction or diplomatic drama. This is the unraveling of one of the most critical alliances in global finance, forged in the ashes of World War II and cemented in the era of US dollar dominance. For years, Japan bought American debt as a gesture of trust and mutual economic stability. Now facing an internal crisis of historic proportions, it may be forced to turn that trust into a bargaining chip or worse, a weapon. The situation escalated quickly in early 2025 when Japan’s finance minister Katsunobkado called for an emergency meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Basant. The public justification was currency volatility and foreign exchange markets. But beneath the surface was a far more dire reality. Japan’s economic engine is sputtering and it needs radical action to avoid collapse. Among the options now on the table is a mass liquidation of US treasuries to stabilize the yen and support public finances. Such a move would be unprecedented. For decades, Japan and the US have relied on a silent financial pact. Tokyo supports the dollar by buying treasuries and Washington in turn ensures a stable global trade environment that benefits Japanese exports. But that pact is falling apart. Trump era tariffs reimposed and expanded in 2025 have hit Japanese exports hard. Consumer electronics, cars, and machinery, once dominant Japanese exports, are now losing ground to cheaper Chinese alternatives. What makes this even more dangerous is that Japan’s economy is not just suffering, it is sinking under the weight of decades of debt and demographic decline. The country’s public debt now stands at an astounding 234.9% of GDP, more than double that of the United States, which hovers near 120%. This kind of debt burden is not just unsustainable, it’s explosive. Japan’s 30-year government bond yield recently spiked to 3.2%, the highest level in the nation’s history. That spike matters because Japan has depended on near zero borrowing costs to sustain its finances. Higher yields mean the government now pays much more to borrow money. And with the nation’s debt mountain, even a small increase in interest costs can wreck the budget. The numbers coming out of Tokyo paint a bleak picture. In the first quarter of 2025, Japan’s economy shrank by 0.7% adjusted for inflation. Consumer spending was flat with 0% growth. Exports fell by 0.6% 6% and imports rose 2.9% adding further drag on GDP. The trade balance is worsening. The consumer base is shrinking and external shocks like tariffs are turning an already fragile economy into a crisis zone. But the single most devastating factor may be Japan’s aging population. Japan has one of the oldest populations in the world and that demographic reality is ripping the fiscal fabric of the country apart. Nearly 30% of Japan’s annual budget now goes to social security. In April 2025, the Japanese government approved its largest budget ever, 115.5 trillion yen, or about 730 billion. Of that, 38 trillion yen, roughly $240 billion, goes directly to pensions and healthare for the elderly. It’s a vicious cycle. The aging population demands more care, more pensions, and more subsidies. But the tax base is shrinking. Young workers are fewer, and productivity is stagnant. That forces the government to borrow even more, creating an ever deepening deficit hole. Since 1998, Japan has run a primary fiscal deficit averaging 5% of GDP. Without the crushing cost of social security, Japan’s budget might be in balance, but that’s no longer an option. To make matters worse, defense spending has also spiked. Amid growing tensions in East Asia, Japan has pledged 8.7 trillion yen for military expansion, an unprecedented sum. The Defense Ministry has called this Japan’s most dangerous security environment since World War II. Between social welfare and defense, Japan’s budget is being torn in two directions, each pulling it closer to fiscal implosion. So, what happens next? If Japan decides to offload even a portion of its US Treasury holdings, the effect would be seismic. The US relies on foreign investors like Japan to keep interest rates low and the dollar strong. When countries buy treasuries, it allows Washington to borrow cheaply. If a major holder sells, it floods the market, drives down bond prices, and sends yields soaring. That means borrowing becomes more expensive for American businesses, consumers, and the federal government. Already signs of stress are showing. In April 2025, Japanese institutions sold roughly 17.5 billion in long-term foreign bonds in a single week, followed by another $3.6 billion the next week. Analysts believe much of that was US treasuries. This is the biggest two-week bond outflow from Japan since data collection began in 2005. It coincides with a sharp strengthening of the yen, suggesting Tokyo is intervening in currency markets by dumping dollar denominated assets. Finance Minister Kado has publicly stated that Japan’s US debt holdings are primarily for liquidity and currency management, but he pointedly refused to rule out their use as leverage in trade negotiations with the United States. That’s a remarkable admission. It’s the clearest signal yet that Japan is willing to weaponize its dollar reserves. But the pressure doesn’t stop there. Japan’s central bank is also retreating. For more than a decade, the Bank of Japan practiced yield curve control, buying massive amounts of government bonds to keep long-term interest rates low. This policy propped up the economy and kept financial markets stable. But in 2024, the BOJ reversed course. It began selling bonds to shrink its balance sheet and reduce risk exposure. That move has left a vacuum in Japan’s bond market. As the BOJ exits, yields rise, borrowing costs increase, and the government’s debt burden becomes harder to carry. Investor confidence is waning, bond auctions are struggling. The once reliable mechanisms that kept Japan afloat are now malfunctioning, and there’s no easy fix. Japan’s markets are open. Its political system is democratic. Unlike China, it cannot simply impose capital controls or redirect resources by decree. That means the country must persuade investors to stay calm. But with each passing day, calm is giving way to concern. And concern could soon turn to panic. The final and most dangerous variable in this equation is trust. Japan and the United States have enjoyed a strong alliance built on economic cooperation and mutual security. But if Tokyo uses its dollar reserves to pressure Washington, either by dumping treasuries or withholding future purchases, that trust could fracture. And if that fracture spreads to other nations holding US debt, it could lead to a wider loss of confidence in the US dollar. The dollar is the backbone of global trade and finance. A challenge to its dominance from a close ally like Japan would be a warning siren for central banks worldwide. It could prompt other countries to reassess their exposure to US assets, diversify reserves, or even shift toward alternative currencies. That could shake the foundations of the global financial system. This is not hyperbole. This is the reality of financial interdependence. A crack in one corner can bring the whole structure down. And right now, that crack is opening in Tokyo. The coming months may decide the fate of the global economy. If Japan accelerates its bond sales, if tariffs deepen, and if mutual trust evaporates, we could be looking at a financial crisis not sparked by emerging markets or rogue actors, but by the very nations that built the modern global order. The world should pay attention because if Japan jumps, and it might, it won’t fall alone. The United States will fall with it. And the aftershocks will be felt from Frankfurt to S. Paulo, from Shanghai to Johannesburg. A global reckoning may be closer than anyone expects.
Japan may have just taken the first step toward detonating a global financial earthquake, and the world’s central bankers, investors, and policymakers are holding their breath. At the center of this unfolding storm lies a number: one point one trillion dollars. That’s the value of U.S. Treasury bonds currently held by Japan, the largest foreign holder of American government debt. And now, for the first time in over four decades, Tokyo is not only questioning the wisdom of this holding—it’s openly threatening to sell.
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