Perché gli investitori di Singapore dovrebbero prendere sul serio l’avvertimento di Albert Edward…

Perché gli investitori di Singapore dovrebbero prendere sul serio l’avvertimento di Albert Edward…

[Music] Hey friends, welcome back to the channel. I’m Iggy and I’ve been covering topics like stocks, finance, CPF, and everything related to growing your wealth right here in Singapore. The investing iguana is ranked eighth in the 2024 influential tigers by Tiger Brokers. We just crossed the 1 million mark for number of reads and 58,000 likes. I’ve produced over 900 videos with more than 500,000 watch hours as of June 2025. I also focus on regional and global economic trends. If you’re serious about taking your Singaporean investment journey to the next level, you’ll want to hear this. Look, if you’re like most Singapore investors, you’re probably thinking your portfolio is doing just fine. Your CPF statements show steady growth. Those REIT dividends keep rolling in. And that S&P 500 ETF has been your star performer. But what if I told you that one of the world’s most accurate bubble spotters, the guy who called the dotcom crash, is warning that we’re sitting on the biggest financial time bomb in decades. And it’s not just US markets that could explode. Singapore portfolios are more vulnerable than you think. Today, I’m breaking down Albert Edwards’s Everything Bubble Warning into seven crucial insights that could completely change how you protect and grow your wealth in Singapore. These aren’t just theoretical warnings. They’re actionable strategies that could save your portfolio from massive losses while positioning you for the opportunities that major corrections create. First, let’s talk about the shocking math behind current market valuations. The Schiller Cape ratio sits at nearly 39 today. That’s 42% higher than the 20-year average of around 27. Think of it like paying 40% more for your HDB flat than what similar units sold for over the past two decades. You wouldn’t do that with property, so why accept it with stocks? But here’s the kicker. This extreme overvaluation is happening while interest rates are rising, which should naturally push stock prices down. It’s like Singapore property prices climbing even as mortgage rates hit 6%. That disconnect signals serious market dysfunction. Second, we need to understand the housing market anomaly that changes everything. While countries like the UK and France saw their home price to income ratios fall as rates rose, America’s ratio actually increased. This isn’t just an American problem. It’s a global bubble warning. For Singapore investors, this matters because many of our REITs have US property exposure and our own property market often follows US trends with a lag. When housing and stocks are both in bubble territory simultaneously, you’re looking at coordinated risk that traditional diversification can’t protect against. Third, let’s examine the Japan trigger that could unwind everything overnight. The yen carry trade has become a massive global strategy where investors borrow cheap yen to buy US assets. Think of it like taking a zerointerest loan in Japanese yen to buy Singapore properties. It works great until Japan raises rates. When that happens, investors must sell their assets quickly to repay yen loans before currency losses mount. We saw a preview in 2024 when Japan hiked rates from 0.1% to 0.25% unexpectedly and global markets went haywire. Edwards warns the next unwinding could be far more severe. Here’s something crucial for Singapore investors. Our three major banks, DBS, OOB, and OCBC, all have significant Japanese market exposure. A carry trade unwind wouldn’t just hit US stocks. It would impact our banking sector’s profitability and potentially their dividend sustainability. Plus, Singapore’s role as a financial hub means we often serve as a transmission channel for international capital flows. When global liquidity tightens, Singapore frequently experiences outflows as investors retreat to home markets. For even more detailed charts, deeper dives into the data, and a full written breakdown of today’s topic, make sure to check out our Substack. The link is right there in the description. Fourth, we need to stress test your current portfolio allocation. Edward’s analysis suggests different portfolio types face vastly different risks. A US growthheavy portfolio common among younger Singapore investors loaded up on tech ETFs could see 40 to 60% declines with recovery taking 3 to 7 years. That’s not a temporary setback. That’s wealth destruction. Meanwhile, balanced Singapore dollar portfolios might decline 25 to 35% but recover in 2 to four years. The key insight, position sizing based on risk levels, not return expectations. Fifth, let’s talk about the three defensive strategies every Singapore investor needs to consider right now. Strategy one is intelligent position sizing. Reduce US tech exposure from 25% to under 15% of your portfolio. Increase bonds and cash to 20% and focus more on value stocks. This isn’t market timing, it’s risk management. Strategy two involves building comprehensive defensive positions using Singapore’s unique advantages. are high yield savings accounts, Singapore savings bonds, and dividend paying blue chips offer attractive riskadjusted returns compared to overvalued global markets. Sixth, we need to understand what Edwards could be wrong about. Markets can stay irrational longer than expected. An AI productivity boom could justify higher valuations if artificial intelligence genuinely revolutionizes business efficiency. Central banks might pivot back to easier policies if conditions deteriorate. Singapore companies like DBS with heavy tech investments could outperform significantly if AI adoption accelerates. That’s why maintaining some growth exposure while managing overall risk is crucial. Seventh, and perhaps most importantly, we need a systematic implementation plan. Start with a comprehensive portfolio assessment across all your accounts, CPF, SRS, cash investments, and overseas holdings. Then reduce your highest risk positions first, focusing on extremely overvalued holdings without strong fundamentals. Build cash in defensive positions using Singapore’s high yield accounts and government bonds. Set up monitoring systems for monthly reviews and quarterly rebalancing. This isn’t about timing the market perfectly. It’s about positioning appropriately for multiple scenarios. Now, for my personal take on all this, as someone who’s been analyzing Singapore markets for years, I believe Edward’s warning deserves serious attention, not because he’s infallible, but because the mathematical evidence is overwhelming. The Schiller Cape at nearly 39 puts us in territory that has historically preceded major wealth destruction events. The housing market anomaly suggests coordinated speculation rather than fundamental strength. And the Japan trigger provides a clear mechanism for how these bubbles could unwind rapidly. For Singapore investors, our biggest advantages are also our biggest risks. Our portfolios are globally diversified, which usually helps during regional crisis. But when correlations approach one during bubble unwinding events, global diversification becomes global exposure. Traditional strategies like the 60/40 portfolio assume normal relationships between stocks and bonds. Edward’s scenario breaks those relationships. However, Singapore investors have unique tools that can be leveraged effectively. Our regulatory environment provides stability during crisis periods. Our currency tends to be relatively stable, and we have access to highquality local investments that might be less correlated with US bubble dynamics. Companies focused on ASEAN growth or commodity flows might provide better risk adjusted returns during correction periods. My direct advice, don’t panic, but don’t ignore the warning either. Reduce exposure to the most overvalued assets while maintaining reasonable upside participation. Build cash positions not for returns, but for opportunities. Focus on quality companies with sustainable business models and reasonable valuations. And remember, market cycles are normal and inevitable. Preparing appropriately isn’t pessimistic. its realistic acknowledgement of how markets function over complete cycles. The key insight from Edward’s analysis is that traditional diversification may not provide adequate protection during coordinated bubble unwinding. This requires more sophisticated positioning that considers correlation changes, liquidity constraints, and recovery timelines that differ from normal market cycles. Singapore investors who take appropriate action now can position themselves to weather storms while preparing for exceptional opportunities that major corrections invariably create. So, we’ve broken down Albert Edwards’s everything bubble warning and I’ve given you my personal take on how it applies to your journey here in Singapore. If you found this video helpful and want to seriously level up your investing game, please give it a like, share it with your friends, and subscribe to the Investing Iguana channel so you don’t miss our next insights. 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🟩 🚨 **7 Warnings for Singapore Investors: The Bubble is Here!** 🚨 If you’re investing in Singapore, this is your must-watch video! Join Iggy as we dive into Albert Edwards’ “everything bubble” warning and uncover seven crucial insights that could change the way you manage your portfolio. From skyrocketing valuations and housing market anomalies to the Japan carry trade trigger, this video is packed with insights to help you safeguard your wealth while positioning for future opportunities. Whether you’re invested in REITs, US stocks, or Singapore blue chips, this financial analysis sheds light on the risks hiding in plain sight.

📉 Learn how to stress-test your portfolio, reduce exposure to overvalued assets, and build defensive positions using Singapore’s unique tools like high-yield savings accounts and government bonds. With practical economic strategies and investment decisions tailored for Singapore investors, you’ll walk away armed with actionable tips to shield your CPF, SRS, and cash holdings from potential market storms.

💡 Remember, investing is a long-term game. Be patient, disciplined, and informed. Whether you’re looking to protect your portfolio from major corrections or leverage opportunities, this video is your financial wake-up call.

👉 Found this helpful? Smash that like button, share it with your friends, and subscribe to the Investing Iguana channel so you don’t miss our latest insights. Happy investing, and stay ahead of the game! 🦎

#stockmarketforbeginners #howtoinvestinstocksforbeginners #investingforbeginners #finance #singapore

CHAPTERS:
00:00 – The Everything Bubble Warning
00:41 – Shocking Math Behind Current Market Valuations
01:34 – Housing Market Anomaly Changes Everything
02:12 – Japan Trigger Could Unwind Everything Overnight
02:45 – Stress Test Your Portfolio Allocation
04:11 – 3 Defensive Strategies Every Singapore Investor Needs
04:49 – What Edwards Could Be Wrong About
05:28 – Systematic Implementation Plan
05:57 – Iggy’s Personal Take on the Everything Bubble Warning

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