【日本株まだまだ上がる】ジム・ロジャーズ「日本株を売って大後悔」、エミン・ユルマズとレジェンドが新NISA投資家に贈る金言「退屈であれ」《楽待公式切り抜き》

【日本株まだまだ上がる】ジム・ロジャーズ「日本株を売って大後悔」、エミン・ユルマズとレジェンドが新NISA投資家に贈る金言「退屈であれ」《楽待公式切り抜き》

Well, despite those structural changes and the of course the real estate bubble, um I mean you’ve remained uh optimistic about the Japanese economy as well as the stock market. So could you share your perspective on what’s driving that optimism? Yeah, I’m super bullish on Japanese stocks for the last 10 years and the reason I was there are some external reasons and some internal reasons. The third reason, the biggest reason is a geopolitical situation because you know the I believe the the Japanese economic growth and the Japanese stock market bullface super bull market after the world war II it’s it’s actually when you see that it started at 1950 started with the Korean war right so then so it’s it’s not coincidence it started with the cold war between United States and Soviet Union and ended exactly the same time when the Berlin wall fall. Okay. So it’s it’s it’s like continued 40 years and after that you see like 20 25 years of stag stagnation and the bare market and then I think we entered a new phase of the bull market in uh 2013 with the new emerging geopolitical situation, new cold war between United States and China which gives Japan a great leverage on both terms of you know uh uh China and the United States economic relationship and also trade wise and also you see the uh the supply chain is coming back to Japan see a lot of semiconductor factories opening in Japan see a lot more tourists coming a lot more foreign direct investments coming to Japan so and these are the external reason and I also believe there are you know internal reasons that you see in from 2013 the Japanese government implemented the corporate governance reform act and and the see more and more Japanese companies are getting more you know transparent about the corporate governance and they give more dividends right yeah and then uh from the uh TSC implemented also structural reforms and you see they put a pressure on the companies to you know uh the work uh on more like investment relationship ship, you know, give more dividends and also they’re going to implement a threshold right uh for market cap soon, very soon. So these are all all internal reasons and also you see the inflation and we have like a huge Japanese financial assets right now sitting on the cash yeah on the cash or deposits right so like you see like uh 2.2 to quadrillion Japanese yen, which is about 156 trillion dollar. Exactly. So, it’s only 10% 10 to 15% of that money is is invested in the stock market right now. I believe it’s going to go up like 30% 40%. Because the inflation because people are afraid of losing the money, right? So, it’s a new phenomenon. Inflation just came to Japan. So, these are some there are some external reasons and some internal reasons. I believe that’s why I’m super bullish on Japanese stocks in the long term. Uhhuh. In the long term. Yeah. How about your view on the Japanese stock market? Uh, Mr. Rogers. Well, I sold the Japanese stock market too soon. I mean, the Japanese stock market was down for 35 years. Exactly. That’s not a typo. 35 years. Now it’s going through the roof. I sold too soon. I hope that there gives another chance for me to buy back into Japan because the stock market, I suspect, is going to continue to do very well in Japan. The economy is in trouble. The population’s been declining for 15 years. That doesn’t mean you can’t have a bull market in stocks. And I would like to buy back into Japan if it goes. If I get a chance, I will buy back into Japan. But so far, I sold too soon. I bought very well. I sold too soon. I see. Do you have any specific uh image of a sector or uh like an industry that you’re interested in or Well, it will sort of depend on what goes down the most. That would be my place where I would start. But I mean, you know, the problems in Japan, you’re the people the population is declining. They’re old people. There a lot too many old people. uh you don’t like foreigners, you don’t like immigrants. So, Japan has some demographic problems um which could lead to opportunities, but I have to watch to see what goes down the most. I see. Yes, you’ve uh expressed all the concerns about the Japan’s long-term violity. So um but has anything um changed in recent years or any view uh either positively or negatively in Japan, but you still aren’t having babies. I mean whether we like it or not, you got to have some babies or have some immigrants. Immigrants, you don’t like foreigners very much. So I I don’t see that there’s any b been any basic change. The population is still declining. And right where are we going to get our unagi in 20 years? Yes, that’s your that’s your favorite dish, right? I love unagi. I love Japan. I love unagaki. But unless something happens, there’s not going to be a Japan in 40 or 50 years. Yeah, I love unagi, too. Oh, yes. Everyone loves tsunagi. And yes, there’s always a problem with the natural resources, I guess, in Japan as well. [Music] Well, Japan is one of the few markets that’s still somewhat depressed. Uh, you know, I mean, yes, it’s making all-time highs, but it was down for 35 years. Exactly. I would prefer Japan to to America, for instance. But be careful because it has been going straight up recently. Do you think uh I mean um we should care about the timing or uh No, I don’t think so. I see. I don’t think so. I mean, you buy something and keep it for a long time. It’s his style. I mean, I I learned them from him, right? Yeah. Uhhuh. If you buy something at the top, it’s not going to be good. So try to find things that are depressed and keep them for a long long time. When you say long long time, how how can we think about those? I mean like 10 10 or 20 years. Do you have an image? Me the best is something forever that I never have to sell. You know, I’m lazy. Selling is takes work. And so, no, if you can find something that’s going to be good for many years, I urge you to invest and please send me an email so I can look at it, too. But if you I mean, they’re not it’s not often that you find something like that. But if you I mean, if you’d invested in Coca-Cola many years ago, you could still own it. There are some things like that, just they’re not they’re not very often. It’s hard to find them. Do you have any advice to the individual investors in terms of long-term investing because everyone’s kind of mixed up with how many years you should invest? They have at least you know they start to you know um have some NISA accounts at least you start with the NISA and you start dollar cost averaging right so to buy the same amount at least is start right you have to start something because this inflation will eat away all your you know cash all your deposits you have to have some some assets and you could you know there it’s it’s easy right now and like before all those ETFs at you know the fat you know the premiums they have but right now it’s it’s quite nice I mean it’s very cheap right now so you can buy a lot of lot of stuff lot of indexes at least you can start with that and then then you can look into you know you’re exactly right index investing has changed a lot of things and made investing simpler for many people including me uh including everybody body. So index investing is a good change for the world, but be sure you know what you’re doing. If you do not know where who Speckistan is, do not invest in a new Speakistan index fund. Only invest in what you know. Exactly. Yeah. How much should I know about that certain country or something you invest? Well, you should not be in if you cannot find a country on the map, don’t invest in that country even or Japan. You live in Japan, so you know where it is. But be careful because there’s some great companies in Japan. There always have been, but many of those companies have gone up in the stock market and they’re not cheap. Just because you know about a company doesn’t mean it’s cheap and it doesn’t mean you should invest. I I’m I hope your parents taught you to buy low and sell high. Exactly. And if you find things that are low, then do some research and maybe you should invest. So maybe for us Pakistan, we should go there first. Yeah, it’s much better to go first, right? I see. Not that far. I want to emphasize do not if you go to a party and everybody’s talking about some company please do not invest please do not invest right that’s that’s a very important advice I guess because everyone’s looking at uh social networks and uh YouTubes and everything so uh everybody likes a hot tips exactly right maybe you can make money but my experience is do not invest in something that everybody’s is talking about and that’s hot. I see. Thank you. Thank you, Jim. So, I think uh this had been a very incredibly rich discussion, I guess. So, before we close, I’d like to ask uh each of you uh about some message to uh your fans and all the uh individual investors of Japan. So, let’s start with Ammon first. It’s uh thanks for inviting me here. It’s an honor to uh be in the you know same program with Jim Ryers and he’s a legend. I mean as as I said you know his book one of the you know the first books I when I started working for Namura right but yeah I mean the the fundamental investment it hasn’t changed exactly you know and all those you know speculative things speculative assets and and you know the hot hot tips hot stocks that kind of stuff it always exists every time I mean so but you know you you got to you got to stick something something not not so interesting. Maybe some boring stuff. Mhm. And keep it for a long time. I think that’s that’s the essence of investment, right? Yeah. I don’t think that’s you can be maybe yeah, you can make money but you can lose it easily. That’s far enough. Uh maybe not trading but invest investing in Japan. The the thing is that we don’t have the distinct you know separation of or or or understanding between investment and trading in Japan right or or speculating in Japan. So the Japanese uh people or or public needs more financial education yeah I believe maybe from the younger age or Yes. Yes. Of course from younger age from from high school. Yeah. From high school at least. M so yeah need a lot more people with the financial literature you know know what to do uh and and we see and all those you know huge assets sitting in the deposits cashes needs to be more like efficiently invested I see thank you so from you Mr. Rogers, please. That is very good advice, but I would also say please only invest in what you know a lot about. Now, some people will say that’s boring. Okay? Be boring. If you want to be rich, if you want to be successful, be boring. Do not worry about being boring. If you’re really boring, send me an email. Yeah. I love I love boring investments. Oh, that’s that’s a very agree agree. Yeah, boring stuff is always good because it’s undervalued. I see. Yeah, that’s another point, too. Right. Okay. Well, thank you. Thank you so much, Jim and uh for sharing your time and expertise and thank you all for joining us today. So, thank you once again, Jim. Thank you. Well, I’m very flattered. I wish we were in Turkey. I love Turkey. I love Japan, but I love Turkey also. Yeah, I love both countries. Great to hear that. So, next time maybe in Tokyo, I’ll be waiting with a good unagi. Okay, we’ll go have unagi and then we’ll fly to Turkey. All right, nice. That works perfect. Well, thank you once again. Thank you. Thanks a lot. Oh, thank you. It’s been good fun. I hope we can do it again. Thank you. Thank you. Take care. Thank you. Thank you. Bye. Byebye. Be boring. Be boring. Be boring boring. Be boring. Today’s message. Yes. [Music]

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00:00 地政学要因が日本の追い風に
03:22 ジム・ロジャーズも日本株強気に？
05:58 新NISA投資家へ 長期投資の教え
10:37 投資は退屈であれ
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※『物件数No.1』：日本マーケティングリサーチ機構調べ（2022年12月）