Japan is (Literally) Dying Out

Japan is (Literally) Dying Out

Hi, welcome to another episode of Cold Fusion. Imagine a town where a child hasn’t been born in decades. Here, the streets and buildings are still intact, but life is thinned out. During the daytime, a few elderly people can be seen walking down the quiet streets. For food and daily necessities, they rely on a few small shops that are still open. There’s just not enough working age people to sustain these businesses anymore. Kids are hardly seen outside. They’re so rare that it’s difficult to say if this town has any children at all. There is a school in town, though no new students have enrolled in years. Resources are thin, so like everything else, the burden falls on the few who remain. And one of those few is the mayor of the town. He’s 60 years old, and yet somehow he’s one of the youngest in the area. He’s tried everything to revive the place. national press coverage, tax breaks, even free homes. But no matter how hard he tried, young people just weren’t interested in living there. Despite all of this, there are signs of life. A few times a week, the elderly get together to sweep, clean, and maintain the town. But here’s where things get extremely unusual. These elderly people have one strange tradition. making lielike dolls and placing them on the streets and in front of empty houses. To an outsider, it’s creepy, but for them, it’s probably just a coping mechanism. Then, one day, something different happens. A bit of noise. For the first time in a decade, a child is born in the town, and it’s to the only young couple living there who are in their late 30s. It becomes a celebration for the whole town. Gifts arrive at the doorstep. The town hall puts up celebratory posters. For a brief moment, the town feels alive again, a glimpse of hope, maybe. Now, this sounds like a dystopian story, but it’s not. Recently, a new couple moved to Ichinona, seeking a quieter life. Riier and Toshiki Kato welcomed the village’s first baby in two decades, bringing a renewed sense of hope to the community. Everything I’ve just described is based on two towns in Japan. The one with the lielike dolls is a town called Ichinoono, 5 milesi north of Osaka. It is where a baby was born for the first time in over two decades. The other town is Nanoku, a remote town where nearly 60% of the population is over 65 and the 60-year-old mayor is still one of the youngest people around. Japan may be an early glimpse into the second half of the 21st century for the rest of us. The trend of a lack of children in Asian and Western nations seems unstoppable. People are bound to ask, why is this happening? As you’ll later see, there are many causes to this crisis. But arguably, what’s more interesting are the consequences of a collective population decline. We’ll explore both of these issues and potential solutions. In fact, there is one clear and easy solution, but it comes with its own set of problems if done incorrectly. In this episode, we’ll take a look at the ins and outs of the world’s declining population. We’ll start with Japan and then we’ll take a broader look. You are watching Tool Fusion TV. [Music] To give you a picture, Japan’s population is projected to shrink rapidly. Japan’s current population, which is about 123 million, is predicted to half by the end of the century. Think about that. A people who first showed evidence on the land 38,000 years ago will have their population cut in half by the end of this century. Over in the West, it’s heading that way, too. Some millennials are saying plants are the new pets, pets are the new kids, and kids are a pipe dream. And it might sound funny until you realize that it’s not a joke. A 2021 survey found that over 60% of Gen Z and young millennials in the US prefer plants and pets over kids. And fair enough, it’s a personal decision. But the thing is, when this sentiment is societywide, the effects add up. The result is something known as the demographic cliff. A point where within a generation, the number of new births plummet. A projection shows that there will be 15% fewer high school graduates or 18y olds by the year 2039 in the US. That’s the demographic cliff at play. And the knock-on effect is severe. Less high school and college graduates means less professionals in key fields like healthcare, engineering, and tech. Societies rely on young creative minds to drive innovation and solve complex problems. But if that pool keeps shrinking, what happens to progress? Well, future AI systems could help with that, but as for right now, no one knows. There’s plenty to explore and cover here, and we will come back to the West in a bit. But for now, let’s go back to Japan, where the population crisis is most visible. It’s a glimpse into what the world could look like in the future. The two Japanese towns that I described in the intro of this video aren’t outliers. Plenty of rural places in Japan are suffering from depopulation. More than 740 municipalities are in danger of disappearing by the end of the century. It all comes down to Japan’s low birth rate. In 2024, the country recorded just 730,000 newborns. That’s the lowest number in its history and a 5% drop from just the previous year. Meanwhile, the number of deaths rose to 1.58 million. Just so we’re clear, about twice as many people are dying per year than being born. Japan’s birth rate now sits at 1.2, far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population. So why is Japan having the most severe birth crisis on Earth? The reasons are largely due to cultural and economic systems that have struggled to adapt to modern life. Traditionally, omi, a matchmaking system that dates back to the samurai era, played a major role in Japanese society well into the postwar decades. Families, or sometimes companies, would help introduce potential partners. The process often led to stable, timely unions. As a result, marriage and child birth were not major concerns. But as Japan modernized, that system gradually faded, especially after the economic bubble burst in the 1990s. It’s famously been dubbed Japan’s Lost Decades. And since then, things have never been the same, and birth rates stayed low. I’ve made a whole entire episode on this topic. It’s pretty interesting, so feel free to check it out after this. Today, Japanese women are better educated, more financially dependent, and far less willing to settle into conventional roles. Yet, societal expectations haven’t kept up. This disconnect has created a generational tension. Young Japanese women have more freedom and ambition than ever before, but they’re still up against a work culture defined by overwork and outdated gender roles in society. As a result, many are choosing not to have children at all. And men, too, face intense pressure from Japan’s work culture. It’s not uncommon for people to push themselves far beyond their limits to the point of collapse or even death. To drive this point home, there’s even a Japanese word for it called karashi, which literally means death from overwork. A surge in work rellated deaths is forcing Japan to take a hard look at its office culture. CBS News Radio’s Lucy Craft has more from Tokyo. Years after losing his son, Itsuo Sakiawa is still in shock, griefstricken, and angry. Straight out of college in 2009, his son Satoshi proudly joined a prestigious manufacturer. But within a year, he was dead. Investigators said the stress of working extreme hours drove him to take his own life. The young engineer fell victim to the Japanese phenomenon of kadoshi, or death from overwork. An early day for him was going home at 900 p.m. His father says if work wasn’t finished, he’d stay until midnight. Young women are just as vulnerable. This month, state broadcaster NHK, revealed one of its reporters, 31-year-old Miwa Sado, had died from heart failure after working near 14-hour days. It took four years for NHK to announce Sado’s death. Her parents accused the network of a cover up. The financial reality doesn’t help either. On average, a young Japanese worker earns between 17,000 to $20,000 per year. Wages have barely increased over the last decade, while the cost of living keeps rising. It sounds familiar to many of us, but in Japan, it’s a bit different. By 2021, child care costs for two children were eating up nearly half the annual income of a typical Japanese couple. For comparison, it’s about 30% in the US. Many developed countries face similar problems from rising costs to intense work culture. But in Japan, these challenges are compounded by rigid social expectations. And that’s why family to many feels more like a sacrifice. To add to the issue, the younger generations are adopting alternative lifestyles and redefining relationships. Imagine being married to a hologram character is a Japanese man who famously married to a anime hologram character. [Music] The trend called sama or doing things on your own is on the rise in Japan’s fast-paced workaholic society where more than onethird of households contain just one person. Every once in a while, Masaki Kitaka heads to a karaoke parlor in Tokyo and belts out tunes for more than an hour, completely on his own. Do you guys know about solo weddings? Recently in Japan, women have been taking part in solo weddings. Nowadays in Japan, there are many single people and solo activities are very popular. For example, solo kalok, solo picnic, solo trips to Disneyland. Now, weddings have also become one of the solo activities. But although this may look like preparation for an ordinary wedding, in reality it is not quite so. As the young woman has no fiance, in fact, Naoko is going to get married on her own. Elon just broke the internet in Japan. His AI app Grock launched something called Annie. Basically, a virtual anime girlfriend who talks back to you. The more you talk, the more she likes you. Hit level 5 and she unlocks adult mode. Japanese users went absolutely insane for it. The app shot straight to number one on Japan’s app store. Servers crashed when Tokyo woke up. We’re talking millions of downloads in days. We’re looking at the future of human relationships. If this trend continues, as mentioned at the start of this episode, Japan’s population will be cut in half by the end of the century. Japan’s birth rate continues to fall. According to the latest government figures, a record low of 350,000 babies were born in the first half of 2024. In this next report, we hear from young people in Japan about their reluctance to have kids. This newly married couple who chose to remain nameless live in Tokyo. The pair in their 30s hope to start a family, but say their financial situation is tight. We want a child if things go well, but it’s not a decision we take lightly. But the more pressing concern is the age distribution. With people over 65 projected to make up 40% of the population by 2070. To really understand how dramatic this shift is, take a look at Japan’s population pyramid from 2020 to the forecast through to 2100. The changes are just wild. There wasn’t a healthy pyramid shape to begin with in 2020, but by 2050, the demographic distribution is basically upside down. This kind of demographic crisis will lead to economic problems. As you’ll see, a shrinking population leads to fewer workers, rising prices, and overall slower growth. When the population ages and the birth rate declines, the first to go are often places meant for the young. That’s why schools and childcare centers in Japan are closing down at a rapid rate. These 15year-olds are the only students left at their school in the remote Japanese village of 10A. They’ll also be the last ever. Awihosshi and Atasato are preparing to graduate. When they do, the 76year-old Yumoto Junior High School will close its doors for good. No new students have enrolled. Empty classrooms like this are an increasingly common sight across Japan as the country’s population ages and the birth rate plunges faster than expected. School closures have picked up pace. [Music] Japan’s government has been trying to tackle the demographic crisis. They see what’s coming and they know it’s not good. They rolled out financial incentives, tax cuts, and even matchmaking programs. But so far, nothing has worked. Now, almost reluctantly, the country is opening its doors to immigration. We’ll touch on immigration and its consequences at the end of the episode. Also, just in case I misunderstood, my family and I are immigrants to Australia, so obviously I’ve got nothing against immigration if done well. But anyway, let’s leave Japan for now and head back to the West where the trend of not having kids is gaining popularity. [Music] We don’t want to leave, but we’re being priced out to the point where I can’t afford it here anymore. I work a full-time job and I also study part-time. I also tutor on the side just to make it so I can afford living in Sydney. Like it’s not just housing. You have to afford your housing and you have to pay for your food and like hanging out with your friends. Do you not want us to socialize anymore? Do you have plans about family planning or anything? No. No. Too expensive. I wouldn’t have the time to give to them under my economic position. Even though that is something that would bring me a lot of joy and is something that I would love to do, it’s like really stunting our growth. People are saying that like they’re blaming it on us. Well, like birth rates are so low. Well, why are birth rates so low? Just look at how our society’s built. We don’t even have like the housing that can give us the security to even have children. It’s not like young adults in the West are gladly delaying their parenthood. It’s just off the table for them. There’s no kids as they’re just too expensive. Whether it’s Tokyo or Toronto, Seoul, Sydney or San Francisco, young people in most developed nations are feeling the same way. For some, it’s a lifestyle choice. For a tiny few, it’s antiatalism. But for most, starting a family is economically out of reach. Multiply these personal decisions by millions or hundreds of millions, and you trigger something far bigger. A world where aging populations explode and youth become scarce. The end result is a relentless push towards an economic demographic cliff. The term economic demographic cliff refers to the point where birth rates fall so low that economic output begins to shrink. To paint a picture of that world and society, the children and retirees both consume. But it’s only the working age population that keeps everything afloat. When that group shrinks, so does the engine of the economy. According to the United Nations, within the next 50 years or so, globally, there will be more deaths than births. In 2024, the OECD reported an average fertility rate of 1.5 children per woman, and that’s across the member nations. That’s far below the 2.1 needed for stable population growth. We’re talking about the United States, Canada, Australia, Germany, Japan, and South Korea. By 2060, there’ll be nearly 60 seniors for every 100 working age people. This is double the rate from 2020. Okay. So, if that’s the case, shouldn’t we be seeing signs of this? Well, we are. This isn’t something in the distant future. It’s already visible in schools and universities. Now, NPR recently reported that colleges across the US are shutting down due to low enrollment. The remaining universities face steep declines in applicants. While doubts about the value of a tertiary degree may have some part to play, so does the shrinking youth population. And the ripple effect can spread through an entire economy. So what kind of effects are we looking at? A study from the Bank of International Settlements analyzed 150 years of data across 22 countries. The report found something interesting. Aging populations drive inflation. When dependent, both old and young, outnumber workers, prices trend upwards. Not immediately, but slowly. and persistently. Economists call this lowfrequency inflation. But besides inflation, there’s a tax burden. An aging population means fewer taxpayers and more people relying on government support. In short, in the future, each young worker will carry more weight. They will have to pay more taxes to support more retirees. It’s clearest when you look at the old age dependency ratio. It’s the number of seniors per 100 working age people. Japan leads the world with a ratio of 54.5. By 2050 is projected to hit 80.7. And this isn’t just Japan’s problem. It’s the world’s. Postwar Japan was a different world. The economy was booming. Family formation wasn’t something that young people debated. It was expected. Tradition and optimism all work together to keep the family unit strong. So as a result, Japan’s birth rate remained stable for decades. In the midentth century, each family had about two children per woman. This held firm all the way through the 1970s with one odd exception. In 1966, there was a sharp dip in births. The reason, superstition, just an interesting bit of trivia here, that year was the year of the firehorse. An old folklore warned that girls born under it would bring misfortune to their husbands. So couples simply chose to skip that year. Looking at the big picture, it was just a statistical anomaly. But it says a lot about how deeply culture can shape demographics. Meanwhile, globally around the same period, there was explosive growth. During the 1960s, the OECD birth rate was 3.3 children per woman, way above the 2.1 to keep the population stable. That of course was the baby boom era. It was a time when markets expanded, wages rose, and the middle class truly emerged. Between 1960 and 1980, the world population jumped from 3 to 5 billion. Today, we’re at 8.2 billion. So, what if the population has grown? Why sound the alarm? Well, that’s because the growth rate is collapsing. In the mid- 20th century, the population was increasing nearly 2% per year. Now, it’s below 1. To give you a visual idea, just look at the slope of this chart. The green line which represents growth is heading down and within a few decades it will be tilting negative. The second problem is the demographic transition. This population pyramid shown here is the world demographic distribution of the 1950s. The base was wide. That meant plenty of young people to support the older people in the economy as a whole. Think about it like this. With so many young people across the globe, the world was energized, primed for productivity. This is how a healthy population should look like. Fast forward to today and it looks more like a dome than a pyramid. The midsection of the graph is swelling with middle and older aged people. The younger working age demographic doesn’t stand out as much as it did in the 1950s. Right now, the current age distribution is only at the cusp of becoming a problem. But to look into the future a bit, let’s take a look at the demography of South Korea. They’re deep into this process. You can see the wave of young people in the 1960s to 1980s. They balloon through as time progresses, but then suddenly the young begin to disappear around the year 2000. And it’s not a coincidence. Many of the reasons behind South Korea’s low fertility rate tend to mirror what we’ve already seen in Japan. The rising cost of living, expensive housing in cities like Seoul, intense academic pressure, long working hours, and deeply rooted gender roles in a patriarchal society all add up. They come together to create an environment where starting a family feels more like a burden than a goal. From a broader perspective, it feels like everything comes down to financial pressure. But is it really all about money? Or could there be something deeper? Yes, housing prices are crazy. Yes, there’s not enough good paying jobs. But I think at the end of the day, deep down, they just don’t want to have kids. A lot of us didn’t have happy homes growing up. We saw how hard it was for our parents in the ‘9s and 2000s to raise us as kids. I remember my father coming home stressed from work. He used to work at a major broadcaster and my mother also had her own job and they would always meet late at night and then I would come home late from the daycare. They’re like a childhood trauma from seeing how unhappy you were as a family unit. It could also be one of those factors like why do I want to be like my parents and fight over money and stuff. And with that type of deeply rooted psychological issues, it doesn’t matter what kind of policy introduced or even now they’re just not going to do it. Period. I could be wrong, but that’s what I believe. And you don’t have to ask me. I’m a man. Ask the Korean women how they feel. And a lot of them have said, “I don’t want to have all the responsibility of raising the kid, raising it in a patriarchal society where a lot of the men, not all of them, but a lot of them still won’t help with the child rearing.” There’s clearly a generational mind shift here. Overall, South Korea’s challenges reflect a broader trend that began when Japan first faced this demographic cliff. Many other developed nations are now facing a similar path. But of course, not all countries are heading down this path. In parts of Africa and Southeast Asia, the story is playing out in reverse. Take Nigeria for example. It’s already Africa’s most populous country, and it’s expanding at a rate of 2.5% per year. And get this, nearly half of Nigerians are under the age of 15. Even though the birth rate has declined in recent years, it’s still hovering at near five children per woman. At this pace, Nigeria is on track to surpass 300 million people by 2050. Ethiopia is another example. Nearly half of its population is under 18. A whole generation is now entering adulthood. Meanwhile, countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam in Southeast Asia still have relatively higher birth rates. The populations in these countries just mentioned are young. And that youth is becoming a valuable resource, not just locally, but anywhere in the world. In a world where nations are running out of young people, young working age people, other countries are overflowing with them. So, if you were the boss of the earth, how would you resolve this problem? How would you fix this imbalance? Well, there’s one word. Immigration. It’s touted as the solution to fix everything. But the question is, can it? There’s no way around it. But practically speaking, just by the numbers, immigration is the most obvious solution to this problem. And it’s no secret that immigration is a contentious topic, depending on who you ask. policies around it are politically charged and the native citizens are often against it because of cultural factors. But let’s put aside the political landmines for now. Let’s just assume that cultural assimilation happens and happens smoothly. Can immigration really help the demographic crisis? Some evidence suggests that it can help address short-term issues like labor shortages, but it’s not going to fix the low birth rate. Japan has always been a very homogeneous country, so immigration was their last resort. In 2022, they let in 144,000 new immigrants on a long-term or permanent basis. It was a 150% increase from the previous year. The majority of the immigration, around 55%, was labor migrants, and that was to plug the gaps in areas like elder care and construction. But does immigration really help solve the deeper issue? In Japan’s case, there was a 2023 report published in the International Journal of Population Studies. It found that immigration tends to go up as the older generation increases. But instead of reversing the aging population trend, immigration only slows it down. Some argue that there’s still a compelling case for immigration, especially if it’s coming from areas where the population is still growing. So well-managed immigration from those regions inject youth, energy, and possibility into aging societies that desperately need it. Have governments been doing immigration properly? That’s a debate for another day. And I think most people would say there’s work to be done there. When we were looking at South Korea’s crisis earlier, it felt like a bit of doom and gloom. But recently, the country has seen an uptick. 0.72 births to 0.75 births. In 2024, more babies were born than the year before. It was the first time in almost 10 years. That slight upward line at the very end of the graph might be something to be encouraged by. It’s not much, but it’s literal baby steps. South Korean governments are saying that their policies have helped. If that’s to be believed, hopefully they continue to have a lasting impact. If there’s a lesson in this, it’s that change is still possible. Japan can still write a new chapter. Nothing is set in stone. Ultimately, we can remain positive. We’ve been wrong before. Back in the 1960s, fears of overpopulation were everywhere, and some people still believe that till this day. Two Stanford professors, Paul and Annie Erlick, even wrote a bestseller predicting global famines and societal collapse. Basically, none of that happened. So maybe, just maybe, what we’re predicting today won’t come to pass. At least maybe it’s not going to be as severe. Even if the worst case scenario does play out, although it’s not perfect, immigration is also a valid tool to use for the future. So the question is, can Japan reverse course or will they need to open up to even more immigration? And globally, what about the western world and other parts of Asia? Is this going to be a new kind of normal? And who knows? Just like previous doomer population predictions, it all could just be fine in the end. And if there are changes, humanity always adapts. I’m curious to know what your thoughts are on all of this. For me, it feels like we’re living through a major shift here where societies may look a bit different to what we’re used to. But let’s just see what happens. Interesting times do have a detailed video on their lost decades where their economy faltered. That event still has repercussions till this day. Thanks for watching. My name is Dogo and you’ve been watching Cold Fusion and I’ll catch you again soon for the next episode. Cheers, guys. Have a good one. I’m getting older. [Music] Older older I feel I’m getting older older than I feel I’m getting older older heavy older

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The demographic decline in Japan is no secret but the trend of not having kids is spreading across the globe. In this episode we explore the reasons for why this is happening, the consequences and possible solutions.

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