Reverse Carry Trade Unwinding — Coming Soon?
Two-year yield above 1% last seen 2008. Ten-year, twenty-year, thirty-year yields at decade highs. Oil spike forces Japan aggressive rate hikes. $1.2-1.6T treasuries flood market. Stablecoin issuers absorb treasuries earning yield for inter-bank settlement.
19 Comments
Has the popularity and focus on stable coin use diminished the potential of XRP price appreciation at all? I realize that XRP will be the bridge, but if stable coin swaps suffice, I would imagine it would have some type of impact.
The next 12 to 18 months will be exciting .
I love u Jake, u my BOY!, MY BOY BLUE!
This looks like an older recording but I hope he’s reposting this because we are only days away from XRP moon launch 🙏
Coming to a theater near you 🤣😂
Jake I looked up Japan's available oil supply is still 240-250 days of oil reserves that is still quite a while so if you could could you help me with what I'm missing. Could it be another country other than Japan? Or do you think it will be more like beginning of next year before the stress starts to hit? Any insight or how I'm wrong or missing something. Cheers Mate.
160.29 JPY/US$. We will find out soon
I am not sure about one thing and that’s NONE of the banks ever yet said that we are using XRP. The ripple could have 100 of partnerships of acquisitions but it will never affect XRP that fast. Couple of things one XRP has never bought by institutions yet two one XRP can be used multiple times a day for transactions if even though there’s a claim that XRP is a liquidity why no one is buying.
I am a pissed off XRP holder .. this is all BS .. ripple is using XRP to sure up RLUSD in less then few months RLUSD went from nothing to $1.5 Billion and of course XRP keeps going down .. all 300+ banks use RLUD and not XRP they want a stable coin for there transactions and not some volatile coin that does nothing but keeps going down.
Houthis in Yemen have fired their first missiles into Israel.
The Houthis (Iranian proxies) pose a serious threat to any shipping entering or exiting the Red Sea.
Oil has been getting piped over to the Red Sea ports in Saudi Arabia so that is likely to get blockaded in now.
Iran hold all cards on this still.
Things are about to get much worse.
Jake if we expect a 24-48 bloodbath in the markets, will this jump for XRP to 3-4 digits happen during this time frame?
are they going to create enough stable coins for all the xrp that's going to sell off at once
The reverse carry trade will not necessarily be the cause of XRP going to a higher price. XRP will go much higher as its use case rises, but if the reverse carry trade does not have the dramatic impact that people expect, be calm and patient… the time will come.
I googled it and Japan is using xrp for settlements in Asia ,Singapore and places other than the U.S . Do you think this will offset the effects of the carry trade ?
fingers crossed
🙏
What keeps me from going full cult mode is supply. XRP was created at launch with a fixed 100 billion total supply and recent reporting puts circulating supply around 61 billion. That makes extreme price targets much harder than people admit. Using 61 billion circulating XRP, a $5 XRP implies about a $305 billion market cap, $10 implies $610 billion, $200 implies about $12.2 trillion, and $1,000 implies about $61 trillion. I think $5–$10 is absolutely possible in a strong crypto cycle. And $20–$30 if it captures a lot of institutional narrative. Whats your thoughts on the supply Jake?
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Yes definitely fixing to happen. Not because oil is going to do it. The Bank of Japan isn't going to raise interest rates. Oil is about as high as it's going to go. But that's where they need it at because Japan's life insurance market has something where they have to bring all the money home It's called a repatriation, think of it like a global margin call, which the US holds a lot of. And they're doing it this weekend because by Japan law the repatriations have to happen before March 31st which is by regulated law, by the end of their fiscal year. That means When that money comes back to Japan it will strengthen the Japanese yen and do essentially what Jake has been predicting oil in Japan's raising rates would do, Spike the 10-year yield and cause a reverse carry trade. Which will happen when Japan bond market opens Monday morning in Japan which is Sunday evening 8:00 p.m. eastern time. They will open right into a reverse carry trade so they are actually using the repatriation to reprice XRP. You were going to see that price skyrocket around 8:00-9:00 p.m. Eastern standard Time March 29th, 2026.