USA: “Massiv unter Druck” Zoll-Attacke! Nutzt Europa seinen letzten Trumpf gegen Trump?
I would like to talk to the economist Professor Veronika Grimm about the possibilities. Thank you very much for your time. Hello, I greet you. Most people agree: a tariff war ultimately has losers on both sides. The EU is also still relatively hesitant. What would be your recommendation now, assuming that you have an opponent in Trump who is difficult to assess? Yes, first of all that is correct: a tariff war only has losers. We are already seeing this – the stock markets are crashing. And it will be very, very uncomfortable for the industry. Most value chains are not within one country, not even in the USA, but are widely branched, global. And that becomes a challenge when this customs war escalates and new countermeasures are constantly being devised. Nevertheless, the EU must of course react. The EU has announced this. Not reacting now would of course somehow be a loss of credibility, given that this was announced in advance. But at the same time, you should have a negotiating strategy in your pocket if Donald Trump is ready to negotiate. And the statements about energy exports suggest that. An initial offer has been made – hopefully the EU has a good plan for how to proceed now. Yes, you just mentioned it: Donald Trump is currently willing to talk in exactly one area – and that is that the EU buys energy from the USA. In the end, is this a solution that Europe can afford? And then didn’t you allow yourself to be blackmailed? No, not necessarily. An offer has already been put on the table. That won’t be enough for Donald Trump . It will not be enough to reduce tariffs to zero on industrial goods. Agriculture is an issue that has been discussed before, that may need to be put on the table, but that is likely to face resistance in the EU – particularly in France. And energy imports – well, I think we can get closer to that. Given the current developments, it is actually a good thing that this was not done in advance. Because now you still have a trump card in your hand that you can play. And I don’t think it’s a total disadvantage now to enter into energy trade relations with the Americans on a slightly larger scale. The EU is currently saying: advisors – including Giorgia Meloni from Italy, Emmanuel Macron also at the front. Of course, Germany is currently in a difficult situation because we simply don’t have a government that can now plan for the long term. Olaf Scholz – the lame duck, as they say in politics . Now, if we look at Germany internally, it’s pretty quiet. Don’t we need a strong voice right now, an action that shows people in this country, the small savers who are also worried about their investments, that maybe it ‘s not all that bad? Nobody really seems to feel responsible between the old and the new government. Yes, I believe that leadership is needed now – and, above all, consistent decisions in the coalition negotiations. What we are currently observing is rather worrying. It’s not like we’re in a good position at the moment. Germany is in a serious structural crisis. We have actually been observing the decline in industrial production since 2017/18 , which is coming under massive pressure from competition, especially from China. And we urgently need to make the country more attractive for high-growth industries. The results or the interim results of the coalition negotiations do not currently indicate this. So we would need tax measures, we would need budget restructuring so that spending on the social security systems could be curbed in order to get the country fit again. And also an agenda of deregulation so that we become stronger when it comes to innovations and the innovative power of the economy structurally increases. And here the best medicine against Trump and his erratic politics is actually that we strengthen Europe – on the one hand, strengthen Germany as a location, and then the integration of it Strengthen the European Union and also strengthen Europe’s integration into world trade in a resilient, diversified way. This needs to be pushed forward. That would be good for the country. And then you could also tell people that they don’t have to worry too much. The current situation is that we are coming under massive pressure here and important industries in the country, which are already weak, are now increasingly coming under pressure from these tariffs. This is not good. You have just mentioned that the interim results that we have seen so far have not yet reflected what you would now recommend or wish for. These coalition talks are of course now under time pressure. A schedule had been drawn up before all these stock market shocks. You still have to come to an agreement on big issues anyway . And the special fund that made the whole thing possible in the first place was already triggered by Donald Trump and his behavior. Security in Europe, in Germany, no longer seems so secure. So how much impact does Trump have in the end and how much can you absorb in such a short time if you actually want to reach an agreement by the end of the week? Yes, you shouldn’t be lulled into thinking that the possibilities of these additional loans are already the solution. The solution lies in structural reforms. If we spend this money now, but the production potential in Germany remains low – we currently have medium-term growth potential in Germany of around 0.3-0.4% per year – if it stays that way, then it will be difficult for us to recover economically. Then we will use this money, so to speak, but the price pressure will begin relatively quickly. And then we have inflationary pressure that we also have to deal with. So structural reforms are important – and more important than reaching a result within five days is agreeing on the right measures that will increase the long-term potential of the economy, increase the innovative power of the economy and thus help us to actually develop ourselves further economically and develop strength. One can only wish the coalition members good luck. I don’t think it’s such a bad thing that these developments have happened before the coalition negotiations have been concluded, because then it becomes clear once again how dependent we are on making the most of our own economic strength so that we can counter these developments . Veronika Grimm, thank you very much for your assessments. Thank you.
USA: “Massiv unter Druck” Zoll-Attacke! Nutzt Europa seinen letzten Trumpf gegen Trump?
Zollkrieg, Börsenbeben, Regierungsvakuum: Wirtschaftsweise Veronika Grimm warnt im Interview vor gefährlichen Verzögerungen in der deutschen Wirtschaftspolitik. Die EU müsse jetzt entschlossen reagieren – aber mit kluger Verhandlungsstrategie, nicht mit impulsiven Maßnahmen. Für Deutschland fordert Grimm tiefgreifende Strukturreformen: weniger Regulierung, mehr Innovationsförderung, eine konsolidierte Sozialpolitik. Denn: Die eigentliche Antwort auf Trump liegt nicht in Symbolpolitik, sondern in wirtschaftlicher Stärke und europäischer Einigkeit.
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