Japan OUTPLAYED Trump in trade deal

Japan OUTPLAYED Trump in trade deal

So, we got more details on Donald Trump’s trade war with the rest of the world. And these are the headlines today. Trump says countries will face tariffs ranging from 15, that’s 15 to 50%. And basically in Trump’s world, I guess if we like you, 15% tariffs if we don’t like you and we’re not close, 50% tariffs. So, if you’re the American consumer, as ultimately you’re going to end up paying the stuff, you better hope Trump’s making some more friends. However, I wouldn’t hold my breath. Uh Scott Bessett was on the defense for Trump and giving us some more details. Let’s listen to this. And then uh President Trump negotiated the Japanese delegation up to a 550 billion the package u excuse me loans, credit guarantees and equity. And President Trump is going to direct where that can be invested. And that is going to be invested in the derrisking of our supply chain. So that was live what you just saw of Bessant basically having a brain fart there. He took a long long pause then had to go over okay uh it’s going to be loans and credits and stuff like that. Next question that people always ask is hey what’s going on in Japan? What are they saying? And they’re also saying similar things. Well have a listen to this. Um but you know getting back to this uh deal there’s a little bit of discrepancy in what the US is saying and what Japan is saying particularly I mean one other issue is defense. So the US side is saying Japan is going to buy more defense equipment. Uh Akazan the lead trade negotiator who’s coming back later on today said after this meeting that uh no defense was not on the table. This is that is a security issue that has not been part of these trade negotiations. There’s the other part about rice where the US says uh they’re going to increase the quotas but the agricultural minister the prime minister said the minimum access rate of 770,000 metric tons that come to Japan from overseas in terms of rice without tariffs that is going to remain the same. So they did protect their farmers. So that’s another point of discrepancy. the auto sector um importing more cars from the US. I mean, yes, fine. Uh maybe they did agree on lower safety standards, although I don’t think that’s a huge concession in the big picture of things given that, you know, very few US cars are on the roads here anyway. It’s mostly German cars. So, I think net net um Japan seems to have given away very little. So, Japan is seeming to give away very little. Oh, and I thought the car one was kind of a funny one. Well, I guess you can mess with, you know, safety standards of US cars, but we don’t buy US cars anyway. If we do buy foreign cars, it’s going to be German. Um, and you know, then they’re saying like the military stuff wasn’t on the table. I don’t know what Trump’s talking about. I actually looked that one up. It seems like Trump’s trying to take credit for something that Biden did, which is something that Trump’s been doing a lot. Like, hey guys, look at this new factory, but it’s like part of something that Biden did in the chips act. Or, hey guys, look at these new, you know, weapons we’re selling. That’s like, you know, a defense agreement back in 2022. Um, then you have the rice thing where basically Trump’s trying to make the case, hey, we’re going to sell a ton of rice to Japan, but Japan’s like prime minister, I don’t know what he’s talking about. But this is a pattern that we’re seeing with Trump. He’ll make all of these claims and uh, you know, you don’t know what to think of it until you hear from the other country. They put out a fact sheet on Japan on July 23rd, 2025. Trump secures unprecedented US Japan strategic trade investment agreement. There’s a bunch of words on this particular thing. um not really particular details uh because what you’re looking for is when, right? You want some dates, you want some exact locations, and you want um some specifics like which countries are involved in exact dollar amounts, but it’s not really like that with the Trumpies, which I’m sure you guys understand this stuff is we are going to have full access to the Japanese market. So all all tariffs off our cars. Uh I think we’re going to go to 7 the rice quota is going up 75%. They’re going to buy a 100 Boeing airplanes. So, their market is now open for business for the United States. It had been closed. All right. We have no tariffs on our automobiles. Uh no tariffs on our automobiles. But more importantly, they had non Look at this now. There were no tariffs on the on the US automobiles. That’s my understanding. It looks like Fox News was even fact-checking and she even looked off to uh the producer there because watch watch him say it again because I think they know he’s he’s lying here. Watch. closed. All right. We have no tariffs on our automobiles. Uh no tariffs on our automobiles. But more importantly, see how she’s looking up aside now. The reason why this is important is because what’s going on here is there were no tariffs before Trump raises tariffs, right? And then when Bessant says, “Hey, we got a deal to go, you know, lower them again.” It’s kind of like making sort of a word to say it. Sort of making up a deal that wasn’t really there. We’re just like kind of going back to where we were before and claiming it’s a deal. Do you guys understand what I’m saying? like no terrorists before Trump raises terrorists then go back to say no terrorist says before and like hey see guys we had a really great deal but it’s just going back to where he originally were and so that’s why it was interesting to look at Laura Ingram even like look up the producer like should I say something is this guy you know totally trying to lie but they know he’s lying so let’s watch some more though they had non-tariff barriers so they had a lot of the Japanese are obsessed with safety uh we do a pretty good job here I think and so ours as long as a car meets our safety requirements can now be sold in Japan. He literally just said Japan is obsessed with safety, right? But I think we do a good job in USA. But this is something I mentioned to you guys before. You know, USA wants to pass off unsafe products to other countries. They want to pass off food that may not necessarily meet regulations of other countries. And then they complain. And I’ve said this all along. If you want to be successful in other markets, don’t, you know, kick and scream. make products that are suitable for other countries that have higher standards and be it food, be it cars, whatever. I mean, he literally was just saying it right there. Japanese are obsessed with safety. Uh, we do a pretty good job here. I think Trump’s getting attacked at home. Also, uh, Trump’s Japan trade deal raises fears. He gave away too much. Um, there a couple different ways you can look at it. It’s like, hey, are you letting, you know, Japan buy up our companies? Is that is that what’s going on? Is that how I read that? or or hey um shouldn’t you actually have you know more restrictions on Japanese cars because what it sounds like that what they’re negotiated I guess you could say is uh you could theoretically get more Toyotas and Hondas on on the road coming directly from Japan but there’ll be a 15% tariff and then Trump will just collect all of that money. Um the because I don’t necessarily see US jobs coming as what Trump has promised. Now we’ve got this AI boom that’s incredible. Uh probably the capex being spent on that is 300 billion a year, 1% of GDP, and that’s going to create a pay down the debt, too. Pay down the debt, but it’s going to create a productivity boom. So, you know, in in the history of the United States, the the the rare the railroads, the 1980s, the Reagan deregulation, the the 1990s, uh the the tech boom, I think that we could see growth and productivity well in excess of 3% for the coming years. Okay? So, he’s claiming all this AI is going to generate all this growth, but it doesn’t make sense because remember AI is all about replacing you, the worker, right? that that’s what we’re talking about here. And he’s like, “Oh, look at all this growth that we’re going to have, but there’s I guess theoretically all these people going to be out of work, too.” So, there’s that. Um I I mean, you got to go through this stuff because I’m curious, you know, what these deals are that they’re claiming. Um and this has a direct effect on your life as effectively if Trump’s, you know, policies go into place where, you know, tariffs on other countries are going to be anywhere from 15% to 50, costs are going to go up across the board, uh in USA for sure. Uh, Secretary, thank you very much for joining us as always. Now, we’re going to get to the president’s big AI announcement uh today, late today, which was stunning. But let’s unpack that biggest deal. I think it’s the biggest deal you’ve negotiated so far, which is with Japan. Now, we we we know that the tariffs were higher. They were about 25% before this. Now, they’re reduced to about 15%. And they are going to be investing $550 billion dollar into the United States. My question to you is where is that money going specifically and how are we going to enforce that it’s actually spent and that Trump is going to make the ultimate uh decisions on how it’s going to be invested? How will that all work? Uh sure Laura and good to be here. The this is a innovative deal. The Japanese came uh with President Trump’s full pressure and they kept coming back better and better deals. Uh I it was interesting to see Fox News actually question it like okay so where’s the money coming from? Where’s the money going? Uh is Trump going to control this money? You could literally hear him say that. And um I asked AG my wife about this like why did you know Fox kind of ask a little bit tougher questions this time? She’s like well you know maybe with the whole Murdoch lawsuit thing they’ve changed the tune a bit. It’s certainly a possibility. Um but these are certainly you know real questions. We’re not getting a lot of answers. My my guess still on this stuff is um Trump’s interested in his sovereign wealth fund and just wants to pile money into these things, raise costs for you, the consumer, pocket that money, and then funnel it to um his various, you know, entities or whatever. Uh that’s maybe why they’re being vague in this stuff. But um they’re also doing trying to do a bunch of deals with multiple countries. So remember when he announced the Vietnam thing, this is an update on that. Again, Vietnam on July 24, 2025. Vietnam sees Trump tariffs cutting up to a third of US exports. Um, and there’s a couple key points in here. One was, uh, Vietnam and the USA haven’t yet released the, you know, term sheet, so we don’t have the details of everything. Uh, also Vietnam was surprised when Trump changed the numbers at the last minute the same way he did that with Japan where he, you know, did the Sharpie thing. So, that may change also the Vietnam thing. Uh on top of that, I’m here in Korea. As you guys know, this has actually been big news over here. US cancels high level tariff talks with Korea at the last moment. So, let’s just say this. I’ll make playing uh English. Um Koreans aren’t happy with Trump and and and rightfully so unhappy, right? So, I guess Bessant canceled the meeting. Um so, Korea feels slighted by this again. Vietnam’s like, “Why are you changing the deal on us?” Uh Japan’s like saying, “Hey, you’re even lying about the deal.” Uh also with the regarding the 550 billion um Japan they they think of that more as being a cap meaning that not guaranteeing that we’re going to spend that much money or whatever. Um and I don’t even know if Japan’s spending I I the way that they make it sound is maybe US companies are going to borrow the money from Japan or or borrow the money and then Japan’s going to guarantee the loans is probably a better way to say it. But but honestly it’s it’s unclear. I want to make that clear. It’s unclear. That’s why this whole thing is bizarre. Um theoretically Korea was thinking about more 100 billion cap kind of thing. There’s a lot of stuff up in the air though but you know if you’re you know not keeping your appointments I mean how can you trust these people? There’s that. Uh let’s watch some more though what a Bessent has to say. So it will be invested in critical minerals in pharmaceuticals in semiconductors in ship building. So we are going to So and the other thing I noticed too with they they mentioned a bunch of industries again not such specific the only specific company they keep mentioning over and over again is Boeing right so it’s kind of funny where he’s like oh those Japanese are just obsessed with safety. Why do they want to be obsessed with safety? Hey by the way would you like to buy our Boeing planes that follow this guy? I know it’s funny. It’s not that funny actually because here’s here I’ll be frank with you guys. Um, there are other companies out there and and I’ll I’ll say specifically I think Airbus is could make a a real big gains in market share. They already have been, but I could totally see Airbus taking over the airways and also um I think Chinese manufacturers are also making uh airplanes these days. You never know, but that’s been a big deal. Um, US really wants to sell uh air Boeings specifically around around the world. Annual measure of how that money is being spent and at what pace it’s being spent. Sorry to get pedantic here on the details, but I I I I we’ve had some trouble with Japan in the past with actually living up to the terms of previous deals. So, it sounds amazing if this if this is what it is, it’s unbelievably positive. But, you know, the devil’s always in the if this is if this is, you know, real. Wow. It’s unbelievable. It’s great. I would agree. It’s it’s unbelievable. Um, but it is a good question. Uh, you know, anyone can make any kind of pledge. How do we know the money is actually going to go through and how will we measure that? Um the other thing that I want to mention is with any of these kind of uh deals per se. Um it’s not like you can do this unilaterally. Japan or any country would need to go back to their Congress or parliament get that ratified go through. The USA needs to go back through their you know Congress also ratified make sure everything’s okay. I’m sure there’s going to be plenty of adjustments. It may take like three, four, five years to do a full agreement. You can have a term sheet, sure, but there’s so many details on this stuff. And you’re going to look you you want specifics like which companies, what locations, what dates, and also what about permits like if you are indeed building all these factories or where it takes time to, you know, get the the plans in place to actually do it. That’s why this stuff is is total nonsense. But I think, you know, Fox News, Trump, and stuff that they rely on their fans or or cult members being uneducated uh and they go along with it. That’s why I just try my best to just educate you guys. That’s it. just go through it and and you know have honest conversations about this stuff because this is money and money matters. This should be the main focus of what we’re talking about these days. Will you make sure that they comply? So we’ll evaluate it every quarter and if the president’s unhappy then they will boomerang back to the 25% tariff rates both on cars and uh the rest of their products. And I can tell you so the thing with this is like you can see it’s all resting on Trump’s mood of the day. Well, if he’s unhappy, we’ll just put the tariffs back to where they were. And so, it’s hard to do any kind of deals with the US, right? Uh, it’s not approved by Congress. Plus, Trump keeps changing his mind. Um, this is what a deal would look like theoretically in the news if the USA were to do something like this. So, for example, this is not USA, this is Canada, but just for example, Mishubi, which is a Japanese company, Mishubc to start importing Canadian LG in first for Japan. That was on June 13, 2025. Just for example, this would be like a specific, right? You could you could see right there, okay? You know what’s going on, who, where, etc. Canada’s Alberta eyes Japan for new LG deal. I made US tariff threat. That was back in February. And that’s the kind of stuff that you’ll want to be looking for, right? Actual details, names of companies, give me specifics. Um, but the Trump people don’t really give you much of that. Now, you’re meeting with the Chinese next week in Stockholm, I understand. Monday and Tuesday. Um, and earlier you said that you were working to convince them to slow their glut of manufacturing that they’ve been doing for, you know, decades obviously and then concentrate on building a consumer economy presumably so they’ll buy more of our stuff. But to play devil’s advocate, why do we really need a deal with China right now? I mean, if things are going unbelievably well, all the indicators are that their manufacturing is slowing, which presumably we want. Is is that is that what we want? And that this is it was interesting to see her, you know, push back again because the idea would be, okay, so do we want USA to be the factory workers and for China to be the rich consumers? Is that the relationship that we want? Right. And it it’s fascinating because I think the Trump people, that’s what they’re trying to sell everyone in USA. But I’m not sure many Americans want to go back to work in the factory. So there’s that. But President Trump has said we might not even need a deal with China. They said that months ago. Why? Why? Why push for a deal at all? Wa. And so I wonder if they’re thinking that we’re not going to get a deal at all. So they’re trying to soften their language and said, “Well, I even bought a doll. We don’t need one anyway.” It’s kind of like the kid that’s like, you know, saying, “Oh, well, I I I didn’t want to date that girl anyway. I never liked her anyway.” And it’s like, you just spend a whole year talking about how much you like her. You know, I think there’s a chance President Trump could be the president who opens up China. they have um until August 12th to make a trade deal, but you indicated that might be flexible. Uh well, I we are in a good place on the 30% tariffs with them. And then I I think we’re in a really weak position with China. Even Fox News seems to be calling it out in a nice way, but it it seems pretty in it, you know, obvious to me, and I want to hear your thoughts also on that one. Does it does it seem like to, you know, even Fox News is calling out, “Guys, we’re getting crushed on on China. what are you doing over there? But when China can dump rare earths anywhere in the world at below market values, who the heck’s going to set set up rare earth in the United States when they they can’t compete? Well, part of the defense budget is going to go to there’s going to be allocations in the defense production act for things like this. So, uh, you know, Congress is moving forward on on this and it it’s very important that the White House, Treasury, Commerce are all moving in unison. And there’s a group of us who believe that if we leave office in January 2029 without drisking the US supply chains, we will have failed and we are not going to fail. Okay. He says they’re not going to fail. But there’s a couple things in here that I was listening to him that he said that I want to mention. Um, it sounds like they want to maybe reallocate part of the defense budget and put that into production of whatever rare earth materials, etc. Right. Uh, and then I was putting the pieces together is basically let’s use money from the defense budget to like go take over Greenland and then, you know, get and privatize whatever production that they want in Greenland, right? for, you know, rarest minerals or oil or whatever. And we’ll try to benefit our billionaire buddies like Musk because he’ll want to use those materials to blow up his rockets or make batteries or whatever, right? Just for example. But it really did seem like a reallocation of of funds um from things that are earmarked for defense, but maybe go into things that they’re they’re calling defense, right? And that’s just something that and and for the Trump people, they could like have a wide array of things that they would call, you know, for defense because one of the things that Trump is doing to expand his power at the executive branch is saying that everything is an emergency and therefore I I have, you know, right to do all this stuff like all this tariff stuff may be end up being unconstitutional as you know ruled by the Supreme Court if it does get there. But I think and I think it will um in the future anyway. So do keep a track of this stuff. This something I I had noticed. Um well, so what do you talk about? I know you see him what once a week. You do you see him for breakfast, Powell? Uh yeah. And we we talk about exactly this, you know, we’re you’re not seeing inflation. When you when are you going to when are you going to say uncle? When when will when will we know? And we talk about the overall economy, you know, what we’re seeing. Uh we talk about the international economy. What’s his what’s his personality like? I think a lot of people don’t really know. Is he pleasant. Does he seem angry or upset or annoyed? I mean, he he’s he’s pleasant. He’s dutiful. U you know, I he’s been doing this a long time. It was Trump’s pick. Uh he was he was uh but you know, again, that that’s the problem with a lot of these jobs. It it could happen at Treasury. I hope. I don’t think it’s happened to me, but a lot of DC jobs, the building takes over the person. All right. So, according to Scott Besson, the building takes over the person and um maybe Besson’s going to fall into the White House trap and just basically lie non-stop and bow down to Trump. I don’t know what you’re up to, Scotty, and what Trump has promised you, but I would bail ship if I was you. And this goes for anyone uh in Trump’s cabinet or anyone in Trump’s team or anyone working on Trump at all. Just just don’t associate with that, dude. Uh there’s nothing but trouble in this stuff. And as you go through the stuff, you know, daily, which we do, uh, it’s embarrassing. And you guys know it. I know it. Um, and I just want to let you guys know if you’re watching this, you’re not crazy. I can see the craziness and you can see the craziness also. And, uh, let’s try to keep each other sane. So, I want to hear your thoughts on any of this stuff. I do appreciate your time and I’ll catch you on the next

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