Why Japan & the Philippines Are Closer Than Ever – Satoru Nagao | 2025 Episode 13
[Music] Hello and welcome to IR thinker where we explore the world of international relations one critical issue at a time. I’m Martin Zubko. Today’s discussion focuses on Japan and the Philippines. Japan Philippines relations spans centuries evolving from early trade and migration to a robust modern partnership. The Japanese occupation of the Philippines during the Second World War was a painful chapter, but postwar reconciliation laid the foundation for improved relations. Today, the two nations enjoy a strong strategic partnership driven by shared economic security and geopolitical interest. However, what are the main drivers of that relations? This will be answered by my special guest today, Dr. Saturu Nagao. Hello. Hello. Thank you very much for inviting me. It is honor for me. Dr. Satu Nagawa is a prominent strategic studies scholar and a fellow at the Hudson Institute based in Tokyo. His primary research focuses on security cooperation in the Indopacific region. He has held numerous research and teaching positions and also written many publications. And when you open YouTube and you type his name, every second video about Indo-Pacific or India, Japan and security in Indoacific is with his interview for major televisions. So he’s a great commentator. Let’s start with the first questions. Uh, the reparations agreement of 1956 normalize relations after the war. How do reparations memories still shape present day strategic cooperation? And how do you see this uh chapter in the history of Japan? Of course, the memory of the World War II is important part of the Japan Philippine relations. And so to end this memories of course repatriation agreement is important step uh to rehabilitate the relation but at the same time the u indeed the main factor to improve this relation is of course Japan uh try to uh uh support Philippines development economically after the war and threat perception of the Philippines. In the past, Philippines think Japan could be the invader, but now Philippines think the China could be the invader. That change is affecting the relation between Japan and the Philippine very much. So in the past, Philippines worry about Japan’s militarism. But now all the Philippines say Japan should amend the con art article 9 of the constitution to formalize their military and to become the strong Japan is Philippines interest Philippines formally. So that’s a completely different situation. In the past they worry about this now they wish to do that and that is a interesting change a big change indeed. And when you speak with your colleagues uh from the Philippines, how do they understand that chapter? Do they still uh come up with the memories or they are they are already all right with that chapter? So, so they basically said it was the past. Let’s turn the page and let’s move on. When I visited Philippines, I can check the many museum or the historical site and many places there is information related to the Japan’s brutal occupation something like that. So that’s why uh in the Philippines uh position towards Japan’s occupation is this was the image this and currently still this is the image but current current situation security situation Philippines facing is China is propoging Philippine and Philippines feel the big threat is coming and now All the Philippine needs a supporter. Of course, United States is a supporter, strongest supporter. But at the same time, Philippine want Japan to be the supporter military. Uh so military support from Japan is very important of the security for Philippines. So that’s why needs uh change perception and that is uh what happened recently. Dr. Naga, there is the free and open Indo-Pacific which is the Japanese policy or vision of how the Indopacific region should be ruled and there are main pillars like rule of law, maritime security or connectivity or quality infrastructure. How is this perceived and taken in the Philippines? Indeed on surface Japan did not say free and open in the Pacific is uh the counter China strategy but the reality is this is counter China strategy. Uh why we can I can say so is there are three reasons. Firstly, firstly the Indo-Pacific the concept Indopacific originally uh uh introduced when the prime minister Shinszo AB of Japan addressed in the Indian parliament 2007 that time he did not mention the word Indo-Pacific but he said conference of the two seats so which is Indian Oceanan side and the Pacific side after that this is the word of the Indopacific Pacific was made by the Indian scatter and spread it. But this concept of the Indo-Pacific is alternative concept of the traditional uh since 1980s Aia Pacific. As a Pacific and Indo-Pacific how different uh Asia Pacific mainly the Pacific side so including Southeast Asia, Japan but not Indian Ocean region. Why this is important? When we check the counter China strategy, the territorial problem of related to China is not only the Pacific side but also the Indian Ocean side. So if we use Indo-Pacific instead of the Asia Pacific automatically all territorial issues uh of China is included. So when we talk about the counter China strategy this Indo-Pacific is useful word instead of the Asia Pacific that is the first reason secondary at the uh at the same time the uh prime minister Shinsab introduced the uh idea of Kat. What is in the Indopacific? If we count the great power in the Indopacific we can count five countries and except China these four are quat so US Australia and India and Japan so that’s why this is a concept uh group of the uh great powers except China means that Kuat cooperation is counter China cooperation in the Indopacific. So one set of the Indopacific and Kat means that why Japan introduces this idea why Japan want to do it because how to deal with China is matter. So view from Philippine Philippines is facing chi threat of China and they need the idea in this case Indo-Pacific is better than the Asia Pacific because Indo-Pacific is real counter China strategy. So now if I if I can speak a little bit more I want to introduce why Indo-Pacific is uh more effective than the Asia Pacific as a counter China strategy for example if the four country cooperate as a why this is useful against China I want to say but can I can I continue to speak please okay so in this case China is growing their territory. So that’s why Philippines worrying, Japan’s worrying, other countries worrying in this case how to deal with it is a matter and uh what happened in the South China Sea indicate how to deal with because what happened in the South China Sea is indicating feature of the China’s territory expansion simply said uh I we can compare Russian type and China type. Russia is beggar type. When they find a chance, they they use military power to get it. This is bagger type. But China’s type is thief. Thief there is no place there is no one claim. In this case, China steal it. What happened in South China is something like that. Uh in 1950s when France withdraw from Indosina Peninsula. the Vietnam, Cambodia, this area, China occupied half of the Paraser Island. In 1970s, but after the Vietnam war, US withdraw from Vietnam. China occupy another half of the Paraser Island. 1980s, Soviet troops reduce the number in Vietnam. So, China got the chance. Okay, still six feature was a sprattery island. 1990s when the US troops withdraw from Philippine China took the mischief reef that so view from this what happened military balance has changed and China finds a power vacuum so no one claimed this area so China took it this is safe so that’s why China’s strategy is safe type of strategy my another analysis is another analysis The same situation but the China strategy is water. They said water is do not move the big rock but penetrate if they find a space and if the water is enough they will move the big rock. This is also what strategy of water they said. So I what I want to say China is safe type strategy the same thing. But anyway, how to deal with it? Maintaining military balance do not create a power vacuum is the answer. But problem is China is rich. Now China’s uh China’s military budget is military expenses increasing very drastic pace. So another country cannot catch up in so even if the United States worry about China will catch up the US military budget in the future but must still US spend three times bigger but regionally yes China has advantage that’s also true so that’s why that’s why generally if other country try to increase the defense budget we cannot find enough money to catch up how what should we too. That’s why Kuad and Indopacific if Japan and India for example cooperate each other what happen China need to divide their budget to two side their military asset for example the air force fighter jet two side this means that to maintain military balance this is effective way of the budget and recently all of these country try to possess the strike capability. Strike capability is a missile can reach China. In this case, China cannot ignore the all side or because if the China want to invade Taiwan, still there’s a possibility India will fire the missile from backside. Of course, will India really do it is another matter. But if these country cooperate each other, China should be the careful. So that’s why China need to share some budget to defend in the back sides the India China border side to prepare India’s attack. This means the same budget China cannot use against Taiwan. So cooperation divide China’s budget mi direction mi front it will be the beneficial to maintain military balance and another one is uh of course in another one is Indian ocean matter China is expanding their activity in the Indian ocean because this is the area of the serium of communication from middle east to China that’s why China is deploying nar forces is in the uh Indian Ocean now but in this case if the Japan or US share some naval ship to deploy in the Indian Ocean same ship cannot concentrate in the Pacific side. So that’s why if India take charge in the Indian Ocean as a quad cooperation of course US and Japan can concentrate their forces in the Pacific side to deter China. So to maintain military balance this is also beneficial and thirdly supporting Southeast Asia including Philippine is a matter because only Japan, India, Australia and United States is not a country in this region. China is expanding their territory in the South China Sea or against Southeast Asia in they are suffing very much in this case. uh in this case uh Japan or India, Australia and United States should support military development in Southeast Asia and if the Southeast Asian country has enough power of course China need to share some uh budget against Southeast Asia too. So that to maintain military balance this is beneficial. Indeed this is very important because when we check what happened in the Europe we can compare in this similar thing has happened in the Southeast Asia. What happened in the Europe between the US and Soviet Union during the cold war the central Europe was arena of the competition. East Germany, West Germany, Brahas Spring, Hungary and Poland. Why? What kind of situation they are facing is this is a place many small countries located and they are located between the big powers including US, Soviet Union, British, France something like that. So that’s why this this was the arena of the cold war. How about Southeast Asia? Indeed there is a similarity. Southeast Asia small countries there 10 country consist as but asan is a little bit weak cooperation. So there is no big power in Southeast Asia but they are surrounding by great powers. So China is expanding influences and USI try to push back. This is arena. So how to how to prevent how to uh Southeast Asian countries like the central European countries need to survive in this case they need their power. So that’s why how to support Southeast Asia is matter to deal with the China threat be from the quad side and without this there is a possibility just arena this region will be so that’s why that’s why in this case and Indo-Pacific this concept is very important if these country cooperate each other more big power big support to the Southeast Asia could happen and Southeast Asia country will be relatively strong and relatively strong means that we this country can deter the China’s expansion. Everything is related. So Indo-Pacific quad very strategic and as a part of this strategy Philippine can get the benefit from this strategy. That’s why this is very important and this is big strategy grand strategy of this region. Now, and I have a follow-up question and I think this is quite important because many people might ask why the Philippines is not a member of Quad. Of course, Quad is group of the big powers in this region, relatively big powers. Of course, US is super power far more smaller. And uh how to calculate the power is a little bit controversial because India yeah 1/5if of the population is what is Indian something like that but operation is only only one of the power uh so military power uh because Australia 20 million population India is 1.4 4 billion population while Japan is uh 127 million population. So three countries from population a little bit controversial but but uh uh view from the influence from the their power and location. uh in the Indopacific these four country is strong countries but the Philippine uh is not unfortunately because uh Japan is located in the northern side of the Indopacific India is located western side of the Indopacific Australia located the southern side of the uh Indoacific and the United States in case of the Hawaii is located the eastern side of the Indoacific of course US is mainland of the US is also the part of Indopacific but mainly the controlled by the headquarter in Hawaii and the US military is so that’s why the Hawaii was one and this is diamond looks like so view from this picture uh of course souththeast Asia is located central part of the Indopacific not edge of the Indopacific age is beneficial always because age do not worry about other side so militarily this has advantage So that’s why the view from the power view from the influence view from the how to make the strategy in this case four country because of this they are the great powers Philippine is center means that it could be the arena they need to resist they need to resist but at the same time the view from the location this is worrying location since 2016 Japan has supplied 10 multiroll response vessels to the Philippines Coast Guard and is also financing additional ships. What do you think about Japan Philippines military cooperation and is Japan doing enough or do you see some room for more to do more for the Philippines? Of course not enough not enough but at the same time view from the Japan’s history of the military support this is important step and it will it will expand the support so that’s why this is important currently Philippines military a little bit too small I can say a little bit too small a little controversial in this case but anyway too small so why because we can see the number Philippine possess Yes. Yes. Philippine start by the new frigate from the South Korea. Uh that was global standard rebel. But uh but except this ship other ship do not has the missiles coast guard cutter US coast guard cutter is a ship of Philippine. This means that Philippine Navy is coast guard in the global standard. So that’s why the uh Philippines Navy is not growing enough to deal with China. China is building the one uh 100 ship at the same time. So every year um 10 or 20 ship is joining Chinese navy under such kind of situation if Philippine buy some ship this is not enough. But if even if some this is not global standard level it looks like the cost cutter. This is not enough of course but without this step Philippine Navy Philippines military power cannot be the strong military power. They need strong defense cap defense capability along with other countries because their location is dangerous. When we check what will happen the China want to defend their coastal cities in this case East China, South China Sea and Taiwan these are the area in front of the coastal cities but Taiwan is western side. So China want to get it and China want to get it east and south China Sea too. So artificial island they are building in eastern sea there is no island so that’s why they cannot expand except sak island so they claim the sak current at the same time they are building oil league as a radar base or other bases and they declare the air air defense identification zone to deploy the fighter jet to legitimize the deploying the fighter jet so that’s why the uh one by one they step up the military presence in this area Philippines frontline countries. If China invade Taiwan, of course, Philippines front country. If China expands the territory in the South China Sea, of course, the Philippines in front country. Japan also this country needs a defense power. But now currently the Philippines military power is very weak. So they rely on the US support and other support. If Japan will support it is welcome for Philippine, Philippine said. So that’s why it uh supporting Philippine is important step but not enough of course not enough in this case the key is of course a cost effective measure. What is cost effective measure for small country small country possess missile this is cost effective because missile compared with another ship compared the fighter jet more cheaper and more easy to use. So that’s why this is effective measure. The problem is uh most countries do not export long range missiles. Firstly they need themselves. Secondary there’s limit uh restriction in the international frame. Uh more than 300 kilometer is restricted in the MTCR regime. This is international law. Of course uh China did not China doesn’t join this ram. So China can export but most responsible country join this framework. So this means that most country cannot export the more longer range missiles. But anyway uh Philippine needs a missile because Philippine is small country to deal with the bigger greater threat. So Philippine needs arrive. Philippine needs a cost effective measure. In this case, yes. Uh, US must support, of course. But Japan should Japan should Japan must uh support Philippine if Philippine ask and Philippine really ask. So in the near future uh already Philippine ask Japan to export the NA ship use the NA ship of Japan. The Fate Abukum. This is a fate corbit containing possess. This is real naval ship and so Japan will export this to Philippine and it will be the very important uh military asset for Philippine I think because Abukuma class is not a bad class. This is good one. So that’s why the eb used it will be the game changer. I think many articles are being published about the North Korea expanding missile reach and it increasingly covers the Philippines but also Japan. Do you see any possible cooperation between the Philippines and Japan in the question of North Korea security threat? Of course it could happen because when we check the Philip we check the North Korea’s missile test sometimes the missile test is test the area the North Korea uh fires the missile is eastern side of the Philippine because uh because the earth is uh circling uh who which direction is better direction to test missile is of course eastern side and at least the southern side because of their us. So that’s why the uh North Korea is searching where is the best places to test the missile and in this case in the past they use the eastern side and sometimes the across Japan’s territory air and but this provocation make Japan to be the more make Japan we wake to wake up about security so that’s why the currently this is not good idea so instead of this they try to run the missile to and east Phil east side of the Philippines these missile coming so that’s why view from Philippines this is not comfortable so to deal with North Korea of course Japan Philippine cooperate each other but at the same time for example if military sanction will impose of course the Philippines a little bit too far so Japan could be the base but the Philippine will not Philippines location is how to deal with Taiwan Philippines important how to deal with North Korea this is not so important place so that’s why uh to deal with North Korea issue of course uh Japan Philippine will cooperate diplomatically but militarily very limited cooperation I think but I we should not forget one fact North Korea is only 3D based ally of China and North Korea is already based around Russia too now. So that’s why we we use we start to use new word clink clink is she is China is Russia and a is Iran and C is North Korea. this four countries cooperation is kink. So to deal with North Korea means that to to deal with full of the clink now. So that’s why uh anyway for example you can imagine that when China invade Taiwan just before China invade Taiwan North Korea provoke the other country and attract US forces in the north. In this case, China can move more easily. So that’s why North Korea China cooperation to invade Taiwan could possible. Of course, Russia can do the same. So we can imagine clink cooperate each other and indeed recently interesting thing is uh China is a little bit frustrated of the North Korea’s move because North Korea concluded the treaty with Russia and send troops in Ukraine and 5 million ammunition North Korea export to Russia. Um why this is frustrated for China? Because if North Korea spends stock of ammunition, this could not be the pressure when China invade Taiwan. But that could happen. So that’s why North Korea, if North Korea has a will to cooperate with China, North Korea should maintain the stock of ammunition. But this is money. Okay. I will get if North Korea say don’t send sell ammunition stock of ammunition. North Korea’s ammunition dump is empty. And so there’s no threat from North Korea. In this case, US, Japan, South Korea do not worry about North Korea’s provocation. Everyone concentrate to defend Taiwan. So that is not comfortable for China. So view from stock of we can we can say that such kind of thing. Of course, China did not say something the North Korea did not say something about this. So that’s why there this is a scenario. We can say that but uh anyway it is a reality I believe. On the 8th of July 2024 there was the agreement signed between Japan and the Philippines about rotational deployments and join exercises and I think this is quite significant argument because we don’t hear that much about Japanese forces going abroad means to different countries. How do you see the significant of this agreement? Yeah, this is very important because uh uh this is in the big picture is written by United States I believe because US must defend Taiwan and Taiwan is very important location look like the Baltic three state in the Europe. NATO accept Baltic three state. This means that from Baltic state anytime the NATO intimidates Santo or Moscow because very near. So view from the location this is very variable. Same thing could apply to Taiwan. China worry about the security of the coastal cities Shanghai, Hong Kong, Beijing also the coastal part. So if if the western countries US uh keep Taiwan as a missile base anytime we can talk to these cities. So that’s why looks the Baltic state this is a knife just before the neck but uh to maintain Taiwan how to do that someone should support from the Pacific side. If Taiwan will be isolated completely and broated completely will Taiwanese people choose to fight against China that is controversial. So supply line supporting R is very important in this case Japan Philippine US is needed but Philippine lacks military power to defend. In this case US or other countries should support Philippine. So of course the US uh uh take charge of the defense of Philippine but at the same time if US concentrate to deploy merge for horses in the Philippines of course the same forces they want to use against used to support Taiwan or some 300 forces decisive forces is needed in the backside because when time cards they will attack China and that is why US is big US wins in the battle. So that’s why the view from this the front line country should be regional country and the US should be stay in the backside and mobilize the proper places proper time is the best military strategy. So under such kind of situation who support Philippine the US ask Japan to do that. Japan share more resources to support Philippine and Taiwan and as a frontline country they should line makes the defense line and the US will be US will stay the backside as a mobilized force. Any places they need us will come but at the same time the US decide who when is the proper timing so decisive battle US will come. So I believe this will be a har movie. Har movie what kind of scenario Har is the main actor face threat from the bigger enemy always but final scene the reinforcement come and solves everything. So that reinforcement should be the uh United States because US is strongest and US can do that because of they have the mobilized power but other country regional country cannot have such kind of the mobilized power they should be the frontline country. So they need to fight in the frontline country. In this case, Japan, Philippine, Taiwan, these three countries should cooperate each other to defend defense line and when they need the reinforcement, US will come the proper time, proper prices is a good strategy from Japan from Taiwan from Europe, US should stay in the front line that is real voices from the regional countries. But the reality is uh and uh who is the most uh uh who got the most benefit is of course uh stay in the backside and the proper time they come is big they they are real victor in the war. So that’s why the uh uh that’s why the currently US uh Japan try to share more security burden to support Philippine and in this case Japan need to deploy in the Philippine. Japan need to provide weapon to Philippine and Japan should take more defensive charges in this region with the United States of course but at the same time the uh uh for the US for the US for the Philippines uh for the Taiwanese Japan should pay more is Japan should share more security ben is the current trend. when you say pay more that we can turn the page to economic assistance and we know that Japan is the largest provider to to the Philippines. I think it was almost onethird of everything that the Philippines received in 2023. How do you think that this economic assistance shapes bilateral relations regarding diplomacy in the past? In the past after the World War II, Japan tried to support Philippine because Japan want to make the good friend uh so Philippine could be the good friend, good neighbor that is a strategy. So that’s why this was not so strategic just supporting Philippine economy and that was happened. But recently this has changed this was quite strategic. uh Philippines politics has changed from the do to currently the maros. So indeed this has a big change during the do the strategy how to deal with China is negotiate with China and consider it so and the China should stop because of the China should respect who is friend of China. So this is a do style. So uh so before the uh June 2022 so which is new uh Maros government swing uh before the 20 uh June 2022 China suggest many uh infrastructure project to the Philipp Phil Philippine and Philippine accepted but after the June 2022 China understand the new Maros uh government is anti-China so that’s why they stopped it. So someone should support Maros instead of China. So Japan rise a hand and take charge. So many infrastructure project has happened recently is because China stopped their support to Philippine and without someone’s support Maros space crisis. This is not Japan’s interest. America voice is the anti-China voice is good for Japan. So that’s why Japan must support. How do you see the notion of the new capitalism which in Japanese it’s atarashi shinon shugi and this uh was basically proposed by the kishida in 2021 based on ph principles wealth distribution the human centric economy and sustainability and innovation and many people ask if this is something that is basically competing with Chinese belt and road initiatives in the Philippines. Yeah, because the contents of the this new capitalism itself is not clear. So that is a problem. Indeed, during the prime minister Pacific indeed many stratic concept he introduced and his explanation was very clear. China threat how to deal with something like that. So that’s why after Shinszou stepped down and finally assassinated Hishida want to say something as a strategic concept and he find this as a new capitalism which is more soft and friendly capitalism. He said but uh what is a soft what is a current we cannot understand indeed can he explain that is a question so that’s why many people in the world including Japanese try to explain his new capitalism based on the information from him and the and that’s why there are many confus much confusion about it uh because Um uh simply said Japan is continuing the strategy the prime minister Shinsza wrote. So and but uh government is different so that’s why the different name he want to suggest and this is a new uh new concept but name is different content is the same. So that’s why that’s why in this who is the real writer is not Kishida I believe and now is want to find a war idea but anyway what Japan is doing is just continuing the prime minister Shinszu’s strategy. Mhm. So it’s more about continuity than something new. Yeah, indeed. Especially the current prime minister, he he was the enemy of the prime minister Shinszu in the past. So that’s why he disliked the idea of the Shinszab. But at the same time there is no alternative good idea. So that’s why in the Japan consensus societies even if the leader say something indeed without agreement in the group they cannot do that. So that’s why the consensus means that uh idea was written in the past and and continue this strategy without something special with because prime minister Shino was very special person. So he he was he was influential but most of the other region in Japan is are not influential because sometime some cases 20 years we can find 20 prime ministers. This has really happened. So mass production of the prime minister rotation looks like this. But that’s why the influence of the prime minister is one of them that is common in the Japanese history. Prime Min are exceptional but other cases not. So the second thing I want to ask you regarding economic assistance is that special grant in 2023 600 million yens uh for the radar system in Southeast Asia. Is this happening or what sort of stage is it at the moment? Because we don’t have many updates about it. So so something was announced but we don’t know what’s happening in reality. So maybe you can you can give us some information about that. In my memory is right only Philippine Bouch for radar system from Japan and this was a rare example Japan’s weapon expert has succeeded in view from now only some exceptional case of the Japan’s weapon expert is radar system to Philippine or training praying patrol purpose is succeeded export and there are many cutters katas deal kat kak of coast guard uh to Philippine, Vietnam, Sri Lanka these many country in this in this case uh this has succeeded so kata is a common bram weapon export of the other countries all of these are very small the difference is the new news is Australia decide to buy the frigate 11 fgates from Japan this Australia will build but based on Japan’s one and This is really looks like export and this was biggest and game changer one first big achievement and recently the India also import unicorn antenna for the number ship. This is a little bit secret but uh not not secret but uh uh uh even if this is antenna so not over of the number so that’s why it is looks like small but indeed antenna the nav ship is very important because this is this system deal with the secret communication between navies so that’s why this was so some exceptional case has happened in the past and radar system is one of it but uh only Philippine B this system so far Japan’s planning to export the drone or other system in the near future but this hasn’t happened yet so this radar system my unicorn antenna and Australia’s buying frigate u that was that these are the quite successful and first step for Japan to achieve this and as But uh one more thing that I need to add is with the British and Italy, Japan will develop the next generation fighter jet. This is a big project Japan starting. So in the near future Japan will be the main uh weapon provider in this region and uh one by one it is developing but uh this is just a beginning uh uh stage but that is reality and radar system is buil history in the future in this case uh maybe we will remember ah that was the starting part let’s turn international now uh in 2024 in April There was a joint vision statement between USA, Japan and the Philippines. However, then Trump won the election. So, how do you see the Trump personality in this triateral cooperation? Current currently under the Trump administration, this meeting has continued to happen. So, that’s why currently the Trump administration focusing on this as a important framework. uh but uh of course Trump administration’s favor is bilateral negoti negotiation by using the intimidation to deal that is a pattern so this is not bilateral soilateral so bilateral is more simple and easy to deal so that’s why not trilateral there’s a possibility he will say but at the same time currently good news is the Trump administration forecasting counter China strategy is very important Because when we check his tariff indeed all of these against China I believe because tariff against China of course he said Canada makes China all of three related countries so dangerous but when we check what happen really happened Canada and Mexico post only China increase the tariff so imposing the tariff to China is a little special with others and secondly is he asked many tariffs many country at the same time but ch global free trade is beneficial China than the United States indeed so that’s why the China will catch up under the current rule if the United States try to change the rule uh for example the international trade and every country imposing tariff tariff tariff if if this is better you think yes to to compete with China yes new rule is good for the United State to win view from the development of world economy. This is not good. Global trade is better. But to win the competition with China, yes, this is useful. And as a tariff, the Trump administration imposing is tariff against car, tariff against steel, tariff against ship building, tariff against aluminium. All of these are related to the military industry. So that’s why US try to rebuild the military. This means that who is the target of course China. So that’s why all of the three tariff indicating the United States focusing on counter China strategy. So that’s why this is not a bad news for the trilateral agreement between the US, Japan and the Philippine because this is a framework to support Taiwan. So if China try to invade Taiwan but if the United States focusing on to defending Taiwan which is located just in front of the neck of China. So of course this is good news for the trilateral cooperation. So that’s why I think still this is valuable for the US because they focusing on counter China. negative. Which area of bilateral cooperation between Japan and the Philippines is the most neglected based on your research? What do you think in which area both countries can do much more but because of some reasons this area is like not developing, not progressing enough? Oh, interesting question. This is um in this uh [Music] neglected is of course uh because of the defense area hasn’t developed enough. Of course this is a neglected area especially Japan still hesitate to provide offensive capability to the other country and the US also hesitate. For example, when we check the US military support, it is rare US export long range missiles to the other country. For example, the to in case of Tomahawk in the past only UK get from the United States. Other US hasn’t got access to the Tomahawk cruise missile from the United States. This is 1,000 kilometer range, more than 1,000. So that’s why the United States worry about US arise use this before the US decide and US need to support this country. This means that US need to join war of other country. So that’s why the offensive capability is uncontrolled weapon for the United States. So that’s why the US hesitate to provide it I believe. But now all US arrow Japan to possess the tomahawk and uh Japan is importing from the United States. So this means that this was a neglected area but a little bit open uh because US think that this is important. This means that even if the Philippine want to possess the longr run strike capability, this was a neglected area. I think because the smaller countries need to deal with the bigger threat means that they need a cost effective measure. In this case missiles, drones are cost effective measure but United States hesitate to provide means that uh Philippine cannot get these missiles. So instead of this Phil United States deploys Typhoon missile system Philippine as a rotation basis. Rotation means that uh rotation between the US and the Philippines originally but that Taiwan system stay in the Philippine and move in the Philippine again again. So this means that they are staying in the Philippine but permanently it looks like but uh anyways uh this long range missile capabilities needed US start to sink and uh that’s why the in the near future US will allow the Philippine to access a long range missile or related uh weapon but uh anyway uh this is area despite there is a need this country still hesitate to provide enough that is area I believe so that’s why uh uh where which is neglected area there’s a possibility this hesitation is one of the area I can remember the last question for today’s interview Dr. Nago, what would be top three research topics about this Japan Philippines relations that you would recommend for the younger researchers or for students? Which areas do you think that need more research? Of course recently recent move of the world. Of course we need to say defense area is new trend new important area that we should focusing on because uh we can remember what happened in the world uh during the cold war military is important topic they compete the number of the nuclear weapon finally they possessed they can destroy the earth three times no need don’t need three times but anyway um but uh uh three times they really possess. So that time the military is the most important area. Defense is the most important area. But after the uh cold war world has completely changed. Global free trade is the main rule. And so free trade, no rule, no tariff and they they try to trade and so new strongest organization is not the nation big big company global multinational companies influential. So now we face the many such kind of company maybe the Facebook so meta is a company or iPhone we’re using the apple is a company when the we talk about research and development budget this company budget is bigger than the research and development budget of the other country that is current train so that’s why the global free age of the global free trade this as influential but now uh many military experts start to expect the US China is dangerous and now Russia in bed China okay the nation basation is war is coming so that’s why the this is new trend changing the rule of the international relations military the defense area is getting back status and economic security is popular this is uh they can trade under the security rule. So that’s why this means that uh security the defense areas is rising the the right to decide the policies. So that’s why if if the student who need to run about new trend of the world and new move in the world of course this area will be the rising topics in the near future. Uh so that’s why they should not ignore it that is uh currently I’m thinking Dr. Nago, many thanks for your insightful thoughts for nice friendly conversation we had about the Japan and the Philippines. I think this is a very interesting research topic with many implications because we can go from military to economy. We can go to the soft power, we can go to multilateralism and international relations. So it’s a huge topic and I’m very very happy that uh you found time for this interview and I’m very thankful that uh that you answer many questions. So again thank you for being on your thinker and as as in Japan we usually say domo arato. Thank you very much.
In this interview, Dr Satoru Nagao shares expert insights on the evolving strategic partnership between Japan and the Philippines. From historical legacies to defence, diplomacy, and economic cooperation, we explore how both countries navigate today’s Indo-Pacific challenges.
Chapters:
00:00 – Introduction
01:59 – From War to Partnership: The Legacy of Reparations
05:30 – Japan’s Indo-Pacific Vision: What It Means for Manila
17:41 – Why Isn’t the Philippines in the QUAD?
20:21 – Defence Ties: Is Japan Doing Enough?
25:59 – North Korea’s Missiles: A Shared Security Challenge
30:56 – What the Reciprocal Access Agreement Really Means
36:00 – Japan’s Economic Power in the Philippines
38:32 – New Capitalism vs. Inclusive Growth
42:18 – Radar Grants and Regional Security
45:26 – Trilateral Ties: Japan, US & the Philippines under Trump
48:45 – What Everyone Overlooks in Japan–Philippines Cooperation
51:58 – Underresearched: Future Directions for Scholars
👤 About the Guest
Dr Satoru Nagao is a non-resident fellow at the Hudson Institute and a leading expert on security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region. He holds a PhD from Gakushuin University.
Dr Nagao has advised Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defence and held research positions at top strategic institutes in Japan, the US, India, and Sri Lanka. His work focuses on defence cooperation, maritime security, and strategic partnerships across the Indo-Pacific.
Profile:
https://www.hudson.org/experts/1220-satoru-nagao
Selected Publications:
Strategies for the Indo-Pacific: Perceptions of the U.S. and Like-Minded Countries
https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/strategies-for-the-indo-pacific-perceptions-of-the-u-s-and-like-minded-countries
America Is on the Road to Win in the Competition with China. What Should the Quad Do?
https://www.hudson.org/node/43927
What Should India Do Now to Fight China’s Provocations?
https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/what-should-india-do-now-to-fight-china-s-provocations
India, Japan, and the Dragon’s Fire: Making the Quad Work
https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-japan-and-the-dragon-s-fire-making-the-quad-work
Taiwan and the Evolution of Quad: Will the Two Converge?
https://www.hudson.org/security-alliances/taiwan-evolution-quad-will-two-converge-satoru-nagao
Japan’s Bold Steps to Emerge as Main Security Provider in Indo-Pacific Region amid China’s Expansionism
https://www.hudson.org/defense-strategy/japan-bold-steps-emerge-main-security-provider-indo-pacific-region-amid-china-satoru-nagao
Three legacies left by former PM Abe: What comes next?
https://diamond.jp/articles/-/308356
About the Host:
Martin Zubko, creator and host of ‘IR thinker’, is passionate about exploring global issues in international relations through in-depth discussions with leading experts.
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