Japan Just Triggered Biggest Unwind in Financial History – THIS Changes Everything: Peter Grandich

Japan Just Triggered Biggest Unwind in Financial History – THIS Changes Everything: Peter Grandich

Japan. It’s the silent giant that’s been the global monetary printer for three straight decades, but it just pulled the plug earlier this month. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield punched through 1.7%. It’s the highest level since 2008. That single number just ended the greatest carry trade in financial history. For 30 years, Japan borrowed at basically zero, printed endless yen, and shipped trillions, 3.3 trillion to be exact, into US treasuries alone, keeping interest rates artificially low everywhere else. Your cheap mortgage, well, you could thank Japan. Skyhigh stock multiples, thank Japan. Governments borrowing like drunken sailors with no consequences, thank Japan. And now, well, the thank you notes are coming due. At 1.7%, Japan’s annual interest bill jumps by an extra 27 billion a year on a debt pile that’s already 263% of GDP. They just announced another 110 billion stimulus package because their economy can’t survive without it. But the bond market finally said no. The invisible bid that’s been propping up the entire developed world for a generation is vanishing in real time. Here to break it down for us and what it means for us is Peter Grandage of Peter Grandage and Company. Always good to be with you, Peter. Welcome back to the Dingella Cambodian Show here on ITM. Always a pleasure and an armored Danielle. You know, I don’t think there’s been enough talk about Japan in mainstream media. And some might say, well, why should we care of what’s happening in Japan? how does it affect us? But it it affects us very much. So, um tell me about what you’re hearing. Uh Peter, well, I think you covered it there. I think people need to realize that for quite a few years, uh Japan basically had a zero uh interest rate policy. They uh never reached their so-called 2% inflation rate that they were trying for, which sounds familiar from another country that we know that claimed they want to get to 2%. Uh but their real fiscal concerns now have grown acute. A new prime minister has come in uh talked about uh a great stimulus package and everybody started looking around and going wait a minute we’ve been almost 90% of our purchase our own bonds. How do we borrow more money at this point of time? You know people forget you know they think of the United States it has its own debt issues but in the western economics uh Japan has the biggest debt burden per GDP. Uh so there’s not a lot of room for them. And so now the concern was okay, they have an issue. They’re certainly not. And we’ve been seeing that they’re not going to be the buyers of they’ve been for our debt. It’s one of the reasons of multiple reasons why despite the Fed cutting rates, our long bond has actually gone up because we’re seeing selling from major buyers in the past, China as well as Japan. The key is what you said and and you you hit it right on the head with your introduction and that is the yen carry trade and as that’s blowing up here and the expectation for it to continue it has a lot of ramifications. It impacts all the bond markets, major bond markets. It impacts the foreign currency market. And let’s not forget one of the things that Trump and it’s my big with Trump and that is with all his carrying a big stick into this trade war. The net result is he has little to show for it. Remember Japan just several months ago according to him was going to send us all sorts of money over here uh to socal make a good trade deal. they’re not in any position to do that just like other countries aren’t and China has really played uh Trump uh well in that regard. So the the net result of this is while it’s it’s damaging at this point the potential for it to enormously mushroom to the point where actually the mainstream financial media may have to cover it one day. uh but you know you’ve always been ahead of so let’s not nothing’s going to change on that end but but the bottom line is is that it’s one of several issues that are coming to the forefront now and one of the things that people are recognizing in the markets at a time when the United States has its own issues with debt and financing and all so it it plays a role and of course it’s a it’s another bullish factor one of the many logs for the gold market that’s so Well said, Peter, because uh for the people that are paying attention um especially, you know, those in in their retirement phase, Peter, they’re really worried about what’s going to happen to their retirement now. Is that at risk? Well, the retirement issue is even bigger than just because of what’s happening there. You know, you have twothirds of Americans working paycheck to paycheck. Unfortunately, sadly, they’re never going to reach those beautiful ads that we see on television of this great last 20 or 25% of our lives after we work like dogs to Yeah. save up a certain amount of money to live off of. But the other issue that we have now is is the biggest fear among that’s my main business in our planning group. The biggest fear among seniors is no longer passing away. It’s running out of funds before they pass away. Yeah. And that’s growing. And now where there’s a one in4 chance that at least one of the two spouses are going to live to 100. You know, modern medicine has been great, but it’s also causing another issue in the retirement planning is there’s a great concern about having enough finances to live. Think about it. The old number we get to 65 or retire or you live 100, that’s almost half your life being retired without the income producing that you once had. So that in itself is another issue on its own. And that’s why so many were banking on the S&P and equities. There was that great 20 years ago in the financial service industry, part of the sales talk was there’s going to be this great wealth transfer. Boomers, the grandes of the world are going to pass away and they’re going to pass it to Tara and my future grandchild or something. And the bottom line is we’re realizing that many of the boomers need to hold on to what they have just to get through their life. So the retirement issue is one of several crisis. There’s an aging crisis. There’s an infrastructure crisis, a natural disaster crisis, a the the grand poop, which we’ve been talking about, which is just getting worse by the day. And that’s the debt crisis. You know, it’s hard for me, Danielle, if I may. I’m going to my 42nd year. When I started in the business, we didn’t know what a trillion was. I didn’t know how to compute or explain what a trillion is. Nothing was at a trillion. Now we have 38 trillion dollar in debt on our way to 50. At a 5% interest rate, we’re gonna have a$2.5 trillion interest payment. We’ve only done a little less than six trillion in our best year in revenue. And by the way, the single part of biggest part of our revenue in US is student loans, which is 23% of our assets. We’re now seeing up to 15% defaulting on student loans. So the United States has a whole bunch of issues. This Japanese thing just adds another negative to an everinccreasing amount of negatives. We’ll jump right back to the interview, but this is too important to skip. The real risk today isn’t just a market crash or recession. It’s the US dollar being reset, revalued, and losing all purchasing power. Prices keep rising. Incomes can’t keep up. And central banks around the world are buying record levels of gold because they see what’s coming. You can’t fix the system, but you can step out of the line of fire and position yourself the same way they do, like a central bank, not a common investor. That’s why we built the private wealth playbook. It’s free and it shows you exactly how to protect your wealth, privacy, and retirement through whatever comes next. So, click below or go to dannyreport.com and secure what’s rightfully yours. you know, speaking about stories on how mainstream media is so late to the game. Peter, I thought of you uh was watching CNN, a very rare occasion, but I I caught a Smirkconish episode just because he was saying, “We’re now going to cover how young people can’t afford homes.” It’s like, “Yeah, where have you been for, you know, the past decade?” And and basically, they were just showing how, you know, people are buying their first home at now 50 years old is the average age. 61 has become the age the affordability 61 the affordability index now is uh is at the highest meaning least ability to afford a home uh and you know that listen that was the American dream our parents grandparents that’s what it lived for the little white picket fence you know car two three kids and a dog you know that’s what we live for and that’s now just out of the reach for really people you know from 40 under it’s just come to a point where It really they rent because in a sense renting will actually be especially now with this talk of a 50-year mortgage. Yeah. Yeah. Not only does that add 50% more to your cost over time, who’s you’re going to out your mortgage is going to outlast you and it’s it’s just it’s usury in a hidden way. And it’s just it’s just sad now for the young. Well, well, I’m happy you brought that up, Peter. So, you think that’s a bad idea because the administration seems to think that’s going to incentivize young people to want to buy homes, but you don’t think that’s going to work? Well, they they want to incentivize because you need, you know, home building steel. There’s two backbones to the American economy which people lost sight. Most of our clients are small to midsize business owners. So, we see this and all the two backbones is real estate, home building, and small business. That’s been the backbone of American. As much as we all get caught up on Wall Street on these big, you know, uh, AI companies and all, those two groups are suffering. If you meet anybody that’s been in that business any length of time, they’ll tell you now it’s worse now than any other time in their careers in order to be a small business owner or a builder or what have you. And it’s only getting worse. So, yeah, that is a hopefully can get some homes built, but at what cost? And and that’s just again because of the years. Listen, this is not something that this administration or just the previous administration caused. This is a sum total of decades of neglect. There has not been good legislation for small businesses out of Washington for almost 30 years. In fact, the last time we had a balanced budget was in 1991. You and I be long broke. We can never last that long what our government has done. Yeah. And now listen, I don’t sell anything that’s going to profit from that. In fact, in my planning business, most people, Danielle, don’t want to hear what we just talked. So, it’s not point. They don’t. But it is the reality. Yeah. And I don’t want to digress, but you know, thinking about the American dream, you just made me, you know, it’s it’s look, I don’t know, some could argue it’s sad. Some could argue, look, it’s just what life is today. But it’s true that dream no longer is. you know, having a house, having two, three kids, because most people can’t even afford to have children, think about having a house, let alone a puppy. Um, and it’s more like, well, let’s travel the world. I don’t really want to work for a corporation. Maybe I’ll just be, you know, count on crypto. I mean, the whole it’s everything has just changed. Let me if I haven’t ruined your day or a listener’s day, let me ruin it now. the biggest concern and it was interesting that this gentleman on 60 minutes Sunday night, one of the leaders in AI was willing to even note it on how much AI may impact future employment to the point where 10 to 20% unemployment can be a very real thing in a matter of a few years at a time when most western economies could ill afford such an such a situation employment. So, while the stock market and all the don’t worry, be happy people on Wall Street are raving about, you know, a few companies making money in AI, what they’re working on could be the the final destructive uh force that really wipes out what we live for and what the American dream was for a couple hundred years. All right. Uh let’s talk about something more upbeat and that’s the gold price, Peter, because I don’t think I spoke to you during this crazy runup. Um I think it was right before then. What are your I mean look we’ve come down since since but still I mean an incredible year for gold just you know I just came back from the Zurich Precious Metal Summit. Fantastic summit. Uh great enthusiasm in the room not just for gold but platinum especially silver for the junior miners for the mining space in general. Your thoughts on the gold space right now Peter? Well, I’m biased because not only did it give me my best fiveyear period, but it gave me my best year ever uh in this business because of what it’s done. But fantastic. But but Daniela, it’s still the Rodney Dangerfield of investments. We still see Wall Street treating it like kryptonite. Although I have to make this asterric and I and I’m hopeful that this is finally a door that’s opening that isn’t being discussed a lot yet, even in the gold community. But we’ve now had two to three major financial institutions talk about gold as an allocation in the general portfolio that the 6040 portfolio has been talked about to debt for 40 years that I’ve been in it is now worthy of 60 20 bonds and 20 gold. I think that was an extremely important news uh to say that Wall Street may finally be open in its eyes. But let’s not forget since this whole millennium, it’s outperformed stocks and bots. And you would think that something that’s done that well would be talked about all the time, but it isn’t. But people have to understand this was a dramatic move. This was basically parabolic. And consolidation and base building, if you really want much higher gold prices, is something you should welcome versus just continuing to go up from here now. And so the only thing I like to add, if I may, Daniela, when I entered the brokerage business in the early 1980s, the Dow had spent 13 years trading between 700 and a,000. There was such negativity at the time that Business Week ran a famous magazine cover that said, “Equities are dead. People couldn’t envision the Dow ever getting much above a thousand.” And an unknown young man out of Gainesville, Georgia named Robert Prector Jr. came out with a thing called the Elliot wave theory that no one knew about at the time and he said Dow was going to 3600. Oh man, they ridiculed him. They made fun of him on Wall Street week and stuff. Well, he proved right and it went a lot further. The reason I tell everybody that story is no one could conceive the Dow going high, let alone to the levels it have. Even some of the most ardent bulls in gold, can’t really conceive of it getting much more than 4,000 because we spent so many years away. doesn’t mean it’s going to go to 46,000 like Dow is, but you have to understand there’s nothing to prevent it from it if there’s this dramatic change that’s underway. And it is the the the part of the world that’s growing is recognized gold as money. That’s right. And that is right. And as long as they continue to grow and work towards that, the demand for it will continue to grow. And as we finally peak here in the stock market and cryptocurrency and all the the greatest pump that there ever was in the 40 years that I’ve been, as long as it doesn’t totally implode right away and people have a chance to move out as we get into 2026, I think we’re going to see that shift. So, while we probably I like to say our Thanksgiving date here in the US is the end of the trading year because once that happens, as we get into December, most people just stop for the year. But I think as we get into 2026 and above, we’re going to break out of a trading ranging goal, which is probably worst case 36 3700 on a sell-off and the highs. But I think this time next year, we’ll be challenging 5,000 on on gold. And if I just might bring up the great words of Frank Gustra, who I just had the pleasure of uh interviewing, he said, “But Peter, we have to be careful what we wish for. And not that we’re wishing for it, but you know, when we say 5,000, $10,000 goals, he always, you know, adds that is that a world we necessarily want to be living in.” Right. Well, 5,000 in a year from 4,000 isn’t as bad as correct another gentleman you interviewed about 17,500. I will tell you, we don’t need to get near 17,500 in the next few years to know that the world you had a huge bigger problem than anything that we’re facing right now for it to be at that price level. But a $5,000 gold from this point, given what’s happening in the See, the big change, Danielle, if I may, before we run out of time, is what people have to recognize in the gold market is it finally happened. The paper hangers have been destroyed. That is no longer influential anymore. The people that paper traded gold, mostly out of London and New York, they’ve been overcome by the physical market that gold has come out of the You’re so right. It finally happened. Yeah. And because of that, there’s legitimacy to see that 5,000 isn’t that out of hand for that. But remember, yeah, we still see the average portfolio, and I see it here where people we still see coming in have little or no exposure to gold at all. Yes, what they did have exposure outside of stocks and bonds, they got into crypto. And of course, they’re the type of people that get in late. And I think we’re only going to start to see gold start to be used more in typical portfolios. And that’s what’s going to help us within 12 months or so start to make a good run to fight. That that was I was uh lucky to be invited to a private party with the top titans in our industry. Peter um uh and and that was something that came up is how few people still know about gold, know about holding gold in their portfolio. Peter. Well, here’s how I like to describe to our clientele what the difference is. Yeah. On the weekends now, you see young in people in China going to malls to buy physical gold, not just for jewelry, but as an investment uh as they were. At the same time, in America, we see people going to a mall to buy things they don’t really need, which they can’t afford or pay for. And that’s the difference. And that’s why what is happening in in in Asia and that part of the world and bricks is what’s the real driving tool behind gold and will carry us through 2026. And if I can add to that note when you mentioned uh the bricks let’s just this this crazy stat out of India during October and I sent this to you Peter India imported gold worth of India sorry India imported gold worth of 14.7 billion that’s up nearly 200% from a year earlier. Indian consumers are estimated to have bought gold worth 11 billion during the 5-day festival period in October. So they get it. They got the message. Well, they recognize that the only way out of this terrible debt crisis throughout the world is not going to be another fiat currency. It’s going to have to be something hard. And the choice was you can listen to the people that believe in crypto, something that sits on a computer somewhere out in space or something hard that’s worked for a couple thousand years. And the key people that have the money, central banks, went all in on gold. They have no real any exposure to the crypto market and I think you’re seeing that change occurring now and the reality of both is coming home to roose. Absolutely. So well said Peter Grandich. Uh two important points. One, you know, I always bring you back for our Christmas special. It’s our tradition. Um so I hope you’ll accept my invite to come back Christmas Eve. Absolutely. And two, the Jets are the worst team in history. I don’t know if you saw that clip of that young boy coming out of one of the games and he was that he was just like, “I can’t do it. My family loves the Jets for generations, but I can’t do it. I hate them.” Well, it it’s I think he summed up quite understandable. Let me just say this because I know there’s quite a few watching. It’s very hard to be a Jet fan, but the hardest fan in the world to be for major sports is a Vancouver Canuck fan. So that you have going, you have that going for you, Peter Grandich, everyone, we’ll see you for our Christmas special. Like I said, thank you, Peter. And as always, if you have questions about starting your journey in gold or maybe you’ve already begun and just, you know, want to know more, reach out to my great colleagues at ITM Trading. You could do so in the link below in the description. Tell them I sent you. They’ll take extra great care of you. And we’ll see you soon. Thanks for watching.

“The invisible bid that’s been propping up the entire developed world for a generation is vanishing in real time,” warns financial strategist Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich & Company. In today’s interview with Daniela Cambone, he details how Japan’s seismic shift away from its three-decade-long role as the world’s “money printer” is set to send shockwaves through the global economy.

Grandich breaks down the explosion of the “greatest carry trade in financial history,” explaining how for 30 years, Japan’s zero-interest policy artificially suppressed borrowing costs worldwide, fueling everything from cheap mortgages to sky-high stock multiples. “That single number just ended it,” he states, revealing how the end of Japan’s endless money printing is already impacting U.S. Treasury markets.

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