Trump Middle East tour: Gaza, Iran hang in the balanceーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS
US President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated trip to the Middle East kicks off on Tuesday. Issues likely to top the agenda are economic. The situation in Gaza and another huge consideration for all the Gulf states, Iran. Let’s first start by looking at what Trump’s approach to the Israel Hamas conflict has been like so far. The Middle East is a key region for Trump foreign policy. Just weeks into his second term, the US president hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During their meeting, he draws worldwide backlash for saying the US will take over and own the Gaza Strip. Israel and the Islamic group Hamas agreed to a ceasefire that begins the day before Trump takes [Music] office. When the fragile ceasefire talks stall, Israeli forces launch a major attack on Gaza in March and Israel bans delivery of all humanitarian aid. Netanyahu announces forceful operations in Gaza that would result in significant displacement of population. Something some sources say could start as soon as Trump’s Middle East visit concludes. Israeli media report on government plans for humanitarian aid following the evacuation of Palestinians to southern Gaza. Some observers suggest this phase, which coincides with Trump’s visit, may allow the opportunity for a hostage deal. But if not, Israel warns of launching its offensive with intensity. The stakes are high in Trump’s Middle East tour. I’m now joined by Middle East expert, Professor Tanaka Koichiro of Ko University to break this down for us. Great to have you with us, Professor. Thank you for having me again. So, professor, as we’ve been hearing from the White House and Trump himself, this trip is likely to be a lot about deal making for economic purposes, but it’s hard to imagine the situation in Gaza will be overlooked. Um, how do you think this trip will likely impact the situation in Gaza? Well, first of all, uh, President Trump is unlikely to visit Israel this time. So, I don’t see any sort of a major breakthrough regarding the ceasefire deal with Hamas and other uh, militants in Gaza. Rather, I would just predict that there could be a hostage release, an American or Israeli, but initially I think that would be the best that we can hope for regarding Gaza. But also uh President Trump has been quite consistent in say demanding humanitarian aid to be flowed back into Gaza that that could also follow. But uh Israeli side is quite adamant that they uh need some sort of a leverage to exert pressure on Hamas. So this might not be the case that’s going to happen during President Trump’s uh visit to the Middle East. Um at one time we thought that there could be a deal between I mean a sort of a diplomatic opening between Israel and uh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia but uh again we hear that there’s no way that that’s going to be on the agenda with this talks with the Saudi counterpart and so that all that leaves us to believe that the economic ties investment into the United States and the Gulf States buying more made in America goods mostly I believe military equip equipment uh would be the uh agenda here and that would be the best I believe that the Americans could get. So well this time Israel is saying that it might inifi in intensify its attacks on Gaza as soon as Trump leaves. So will this trip and how the Gulf States might react to um Trump’s negotiations? Well, I mean the Gulf States are definitely going to press to President Trump to have Israel comply with a lot of things. even the international law respectively. But um it’s all up to uh President Trump and also to Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu to deal with that. So uh the problem here is that um Trump President Trump is not visiting Israel. Maybe for a reason maybe if not for a reason by coincidence but without that happening I don’t think that it will be a major breakthrough for the Gaza situation. But uh in the Middle East, I believe that uh President Trump during his first presidency, he acted as like a provoker rather than mediating things or fixing things in the Middle East. At least for now, the Gulf States have come to their senses to expect that the United States would act as sort of a guarantor uh to say guarantee any sort of a deal, regional deal that may uh come in forward um come uh in the future. So US mediation can be very helpful. Well, in a sense, yes. But they themselves, meaning the Americans themselves have a huge problem with Yemen, huge problem with the Iranians. Uh they need a mediator there. So now let’s talk about um Iran. This weekend, the US and Iran held their latest round of talks on the fate of Thran’s nuclear program. What did you think of the talks? Well, I think the talks are likely to continue which is a good sign. But uh in the end, at the end of the day, I believe that there is a huge difference between the two parties and that is about where there be a limited enrichment facility in Iran to be allowed to be there or is that the uh Americans are to demand the total dismantlement of enrichment facilities? If it’s the latter case that President Trump is going to pursue, then I think there will be not be a deal in the future or anytime in the near future. And uh I’m quite concerned because until April, President Trump sounded as though that he may allow sort of a limited enrichment inside Iran. But in midappril, all things changed. All the things changed. And ever since then, he’s talking just like uh state secretary Rubio has been preaching for a long time that zero enrichment will be the only case out from this uh issue. And lastly, professor, how do you think Japan may be affected by whatever may come out of Trump’s visit to the region? One thing is clear, I mean, we need the Middle East more than the Americans do. I mean, uh we import a huge amount of oil. we may be relying on LNG exports out from countries like Qatar once again uh because now we are trying to make broker a deal once again with the Qataris on a long-term LNG uh um arrangement and that also leads us to believe that if Russia is to be sanctioned uh over its LNG uh exports to Japan we definitely need an alternative and that could only happen with the Qataris. So that would mean that we do not want to see a turmoil, another war uh happening in the Middle East, especially around the Persian Gulf region. And that’s going to be quite quite detrimental for our own security, our own energy security and supplies. And that’s the case that is totally different from the view that we have here in Tokyo with the viewpoints from Washington. So definitely Japan needs the Middle East. Yes, for a certain amount of time for the years to come, we need them to be around. We need uh they need us to be around equally, I believe. But in the end, I we don’t want to see a war erupting in the Middle East and also around the street of Homos. Thank you so much for your many insights, Professor. You’re welcome. Professor Tanaka Co of Ko University. And that’s all for me.
Trump in the Middle East to secure investment deals and more. We explore how his visit might influence the security landscape vis-a-vis Israel-Gaza and Iran.
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