India Surpasses Japan To Become 4th Largest Economy In World; Growth Projected At 6.2% In 2025

India Surpasses Japan To Become 4th Largest Economy In World; Growth Projected At 6.2% In 2025

Our top story tonight, ladies and gentlemen, in what is a reflection of the Modi government’s successful economic decisions, India has officially become the fourth largest economy in the world at $4 trillion. India surpasses Japan in assuming this position and as per Nitia CEO BVR Subramanyam, the country would become the third largest economy in the next two and a half to three years. Currently the United States, China and Germany occupy the first, second and third positions respectively. Remember the International Monetary Fund has consistently predicted India’s growth as stable and now the global agency forecasts India to be the fastest growing major economy in the next two years. According to the World Economic Outlook report, the Indian economy is expected to grow by 6.2% 2% in 2025 and 6.3% next year in 2026 which is higher than her global and regional counterparts. In fact, India has come a long way since being considered part of the fragile five economies of the world to rising to the top five economies of the world in just a decade. But despite domestic and global outlooks predicting overall growth, the opposition doesn’t seem to be too happy with this latest achievement. listening to some of the reactions that have come in today. record. GDP. All right. On the broadcast I’m joined by Sanju WHM of the Bharti Ajanata party. Rajat Si author and economist joins us. Advocate couple Madan Madan political analyst joins us and Dr. Santosh Meotra senior economist also joins us. Good evening and namaskar to all of you. Sanju VMA let me begin with you. You heard the opposition question this entire position and say what does it mean when we talk about $4 trillion when you have unemployment and you have 80 cr people feeding off 5 kg Russian. Your response to the opposition you know Shria my first response is this. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi took charge at the helm of affairs in 2014 India’s GDP was $2.04 trillion. Today we are at $4.3 trillion in the last 11 years. That works out to a phenomenal 111% growth. And let me say one thing to you not only in absolute terms FY22 our GDP growth was 9.7% FY23 7.6% FY24 9.2%. Now assuming that we do only 6.2% 2% in FY25. Even then the average GDP growth of the last four years works out to 6.17% and this when the world is struggling to grow at even 2%. We are all aware of the geopolitical mayhem. But be it as it may, the most important thing which I want to tell the opposition is this and this is data from INF. I’m not I’m not doing this data off my hat. The IMF says 17 17 cr people have been lifted out of poverty by the Modi government in the last decade. And more importantly, the poverty rate has come down from 16.2% from 2013 to barely 2.3% in 2025. Okay. And more importantly, just one last point. Those who keep talking about unemployment, let me tell them one thing. In 2018, India’s unemployment rate was 5.8%. That fell to 3.2% in 2024. And Shaa, as we speak now, the provisional unemployment rate is at a multi-deade low of 2.1% and the RBI has said that we added 4.6 cr. And the Modi government added 17 17.9 crown. Let me get in Kapil Madan to respond to you. Kapil Madan, you know, you heard Sanju Varma. You’ve also heard IMF predict sustained stable growth for the Indian economy. You don’t believe your government, you don’t believe the BJP, it’s fine. But you do believe global agencies when they talk about India being a sustained stable economy despite the external headwinds that it has been hit with. So you know, let me let me just give you, you know, some important facts for you. You would recall back in the year 2011 when UPA2 uh was in power. There were reports that at that point in time India was poised to become the third largest economy and you please do a fact check on me you will find several reports articles saying the same thing. In so far as the data is concerned, if you look at the GDP growth between 2004 till 2014, the our you know GDP annual GDP growth was about 7.6%, again I will invite my good friend Sanju to do a fact check on me as far as this data is concerned. And if you look at the data from 2014 till now, our average growth is somewhere between 6.5%. So this is in so far as the data is concerned, you you I mean you can talk about 2004 and 14 did you have a covid pandemic and two wars. Hold on hold on madam hold on allow me allow me to allow me to make my point. In 2008 we have had the worst recession. So please please all all these factors you know in UPA 1, UPA 2 and in uh uh uh uh in the NDA government also you had these kind of challenges and we also you know witnessed in in the NDA1 the demonetization which apparently you know was a disaster because it again pushed our GDP back for a you know brief period of time. So this is you know the numbers the data which speak for itself and I would like to tell our viewers one more thing while Sanju would want to you know give this you know 100% growth rate I mean this is all whimsical you will have when you look at the GDP you look at you know how your GDP is being growing year to year to say that in you know 2009 it was at so and so in terms of quantification or what you’re trying to do you’re trying to mislead And and and one more important point here while you want to you know talk about that we are supposed to become the fourth largest economy here. I will ask Sanju here on this uh show what is our nominal uh GDP per capita. So we are okay Sanju quickly respond then I get in Rajat and Dr. Meotra into this 48 position. Okay Sanju go ahead position. Okay Shri let me make one thing very clear. The average GDP growth from 2004 to 2014 under the Congress was not 7.6%. It was barely 6.1%. Because remember one thing that the Congress never changed the base year and it kept the base year you know at 20045 prices for the longest time whereas globally the convention is that you need to have a rolling base year and GDP is always calculated based on GDP at market prices. GDP at market prices is GDP at factor cost plus indirect taxes minus subsidies. The Congress never used the GDP at market prices formula. As for that, the average GDP growth of the Modi government is more than 7.7%. The GDP at market prices formula. If you use that, the Congress’s GDP growth for the decade of 2004 to 2014 was not even 6.2%. But my most important point before I end is only this. I say look at what is happening on the ground. Today we are selling more than 14 to 15 lakh motorcycles every month. We are selling five to six lakh scooters every month. Marauti Suzuki is selling 1.7 lakh cars every month which is five cars every minute. Okay. We are selling more than one lakh tractors every month. Mahindra and Mahindra is selling more than 47,000 tractors every month. So the limited point is this. If you look at what is happening on the ground and my last point Sha I don’t know if you had a chance to look at the state bank of India numbers which is a proxy to the larger economy the state bank of India in FY25 posted a net profit of 71,000 cr the best that it has ever done since its inception more than 5 to 6 okay let me get in Dr. Santo Mehotra into this Dr. Mehotra you know somebody who has uh you know an understanding of economics and this is something that the opposition has been talking about. Karthi Chadam Chadamra had even tweeted about it saying this is all uh something that can be hyped but look at the per capita numbers when we talk about the indicators of economic growth. Sure per capita income is one of the factors but there are other factors as well. when we talk about GDP, when we talk about capeex inflation, how do you then see this entire situation? Sure. Thank you for inviting me on the show. Let me just make very quickly five points. Firstly, I think we need to congratulate ourselves that we’ve gotten there. However, the fact of the matter is that we could have gotten there much earlier had we continued to grow at the rate of 7.8% 28% peranom at factor cost as we had grown over the period from 2004 to 14 at factor cost the growth rate of the government of the of the period from 14 to 24 has been 5.8%. In other words, it’s been 2 percentage points lower. So just let’s keep in mind that we could have been the third highest third biggest economy several years ago had we continued to grow at two percentage points higher. [Music] 2 I think this point has been made briefly but I actually looked at the per capita in income numbers by by at market exchange rates uh of India and where the India’s rank was India’s rank is not third but 149th in a in the world of 1808 80 plus countries 149 let’s just keep this in We are a relatively poor country. We are doing much better. Yes, it is true and this is my third point that we are for the last 3 years or so the fastest growing large economy. But Shria, we were for the last 20 years or so the second fastest growing large economy. In any case, and I want to remind your viewers that it’s only because China slowed. Fourthly, let’s just remember that we if we want to become Vikat Bharati 2047, we have to grow at 8% peranom. We’ve just been you just told us that the growth rate has been 6 is likely to be 6.2% in 25 FY25 and and in 26 it will be 6.3 and none of the IMF, World Bank, OECD, none of them project for India until 2030 a growth rate more than 6 and a half. Now if you need to grow at 8%, how are you going to do that? And final point if I may uh you know the poverty rate that was just mentioned by a previous speaker let me just remind you that that estimate is not by the IMF it’s a it’s a paper by India’s executive director India’s nominee at the at the IMF and that’s how you respond to this broad paper. Anyway, sh my simple point is this. Anyone with an IQ of even 40 knows that we had the worst pandemic in over a 100red years, the COVID 19 2020 pandemic which was a black swan event. Then we had the Russia Ukraine conflict another black swan event. Despite two black swan events, if you take the GDP growth of FI22, FI23 and FI 24, our average GDP growth is 8.83%. So my point is, show me one economy which is growing at 8% plus despite geopolitical mayhem, despite the COVID pandemic, despite the Russia Ukraine conflict. And my last point, Shrea, is this you, you know, I want to say something for the benefit of your audience. GDP people say oh it’s a top by number I’m asking a simple question you know everybody who was talking about inflation what is the inflation number retail inflation in April 2025 3.16% what is food inflation 1.78% what is vegetable inflation – 10.9% what is pulses inflation – 5.3% what is our forex reserve 68 okay Dr. Before I let you respond, let me get in Rajat Si into this as well. Rajat, would you consider the external headwinds and global factors that the world is grappling with as something that has influenced Indian economy or would you completely negate them? I mean, how can you negate that? That would be intellectual dishonesty. Uh there are always you do not exist on Mars, right? You are you’re here. The pulls and pressures of global trade uh impacts you. Uh the world isn’t as open to global free trade. the way it was in 2004 to 14. Uh there is a more nationalistic overdrive right now where countries like America are trying to manufacture in-house instead of you know looking at creating more manufacturing places around the world other than China. So there are there are pressures which were not there in 2004 or 2014. So you cannot ignore all of those things. However, you know, one needs to understand that all milestones in an economic journey needs to be celebrated without your cynical lenses. It is not like the poverty rate or the guinea coefficient was hunky dory and absolutely nobody was poor in this country from 2004 to 2014 and suddenly everybody has become poor and everybody’s surviving on government dos of ration. It’s not like that country is steadily progressing. RBI has called India’s scenario as goldilock scenario which means you balance out inflation and growth. If you overheat the economy you grow at 8 9%. Look at the corresponding inflation numbers. Who does inflation hurt the most? Why did UPA was kicked out of power? The central reason was inflation. Their inflation was 12% 13%. It was breaking the back of poor. It was that reason why they were kicked out of power. It was not because of the glowy glossy numbers that they were projecting. But you know Rajat, one of the arguments that the opposition gives is the fact that uh inflation still remains. The poor is getting poorer. The wealthy are getting wealthier and that cash distribution, wealth distribution is only among the top correct that is also factually incorrect. Look at the genie coefficient. It is improving. So you have to go by data instead of going with a broad brush rhetoric. Okay. Okay. And we cannot have like cynical laughters out here. Let’s talk on data. Look at how things have. Of course, COVID was an outlier event. Things changed in COVID. But you need to look at the broad trends. Look at the labor force participation. Look at the labor force participation during UPA times and do a comparison the the UPA days in 2011 around that time the labor force participation I mean is he is he a professor he he’s acting like a clown out there sitting and reacting what is it that is making you laugh so much I haven’t made a single personal remark if I started becoming personal he will be no you He would be very uncomfortable for Shre. This is not about you and me. This is about the country. Can we just return to the subject on hand? And he should and people should stop interrupting. Thank you for giving me two points. You cannot shut up. He cannot shut up. He must be impossible. Raj Rajati and Dr. Mehotra. Let’s let’s speak one at a time. Dr. Mehotra. Rajat I’ll come to you. Dr. Mehotra please make your point. Thank you ma’am. Firstly, yes, of course there was a COVID pandemic. We know that. But we also know how badly COVID pandemic was managed. All independent studies have come to the conclusion that over 25% of all the people who died in COVID in the world. 16 million died in total. 4.5 million died in our country. There were there were that is a dead bodies you know flowing through the Ganga. We know all that and let’s just remember the management of the COVID COVID crisis was was through lockdowns rather than the health interventions that were needed because our health sector was simply unprepared and the lockdowns had the impact of the entire world was unprepared for coast. So let’s just give credit where it’s due. There were certain things that were done and people were taken by surprise by shock when COVID had hit the entire world. So entire health care systems of countries have even collapsed. India was still much better than a lot of European countries. Stimulus was so appallingly lying through his we did not have 45 million deaths during her to okay Sanju Sanju let him make his point I’ll come I I should have heckled both of them because they cannot keep their mouth shut and listen to other people. So let me finish my sentence if I may. The fiscal and monetary policy stimulus strategy was such that it led to a contraction of the economy and no practic the the global contraction was 3.1%. Our economy contracted by nearly twice as much 5.8%. Why can any of the two speakers who have been heckling to answer them question they don’t they okay let them respond Dr. Dr. Mehotra let them respond. Sanju first you and then I’ll come to you Rajat. You know Shrea as Rajat said I pity the students of Mr. Mehotra. He’s not fit to be a professor. He’s become senile. You are a senile gentleman who’s playing with data to you know suit your convenient truths. Let me say one thing. 45 lakh people that is what you said 4.5 million people died during COVID in India. You have to be senile to be talking such gibberish on national television. Let me say one thing to you Shrea. Today our Sensex is just shy of 82,000. We’ve risen by 228% in terms of the Sensex trajectory from the COVID lows. But Mr. Mehotra does not see that upurge in the Sensex. Today rupee is one of the best performing Asian currencies. But Mr. Mehotra does not see that. In the last three years, our average GDP growth is 8.83% but Mr. Mehotra does not see that. Our retail inflation is 3.16% but Mr. Meotra does not see that. Our food inflation is 1.78% but Mr. Meotra does not see that. Our unemployment rate is only 2.1% but Mr. Meotra does not see that. We added 4.64 crore jobs last year but Mr. Meotra does not see that. Mr. spoke about per capita income but Mr. Merosa did not tell you that the per capita household debt of the United States is this every US citizen has a debt on his or her head of more than $127,000 whereas the per capita household debt of India is less than 23% that okay Rajat go ahead make your point I have posity of time I have to take all reactions Dr. I just I just wanted to point out one point that during co it was it was India’s economic handling which was appreciated by everybody around the world. It was the World Bank and the IMF and they independently evaluated because India did not go into uh the advice by these armchair economists so-called who had ruined India’s economy and made it fragile five by 2012 2014 and this individual sitting here was part of that game. This guy sitting here used to advocate around 2020 that India should print money, print and distribute. That was the kind of advice these others were actually giving and let me tell you sir, stop it. Shut up. Allow others to speak. The I’ll tell you Shria, it was India’s economy which did not opt for printing money and starting to distribute around. Look at what America did. They had historic inflation numbers. Biden couldn’t even control the economy for several years and eventually lost power. The same thing happened with UK, Japan, European powers, everybody had breakneck inflation numbers because they chose the path of these armchair economist. They followed the path of printing money and look at where their economies are now. See, we need to give credit where it is due. However, I I will still go out and say Sha there are headwinds. There are serious technological headwinds and our important sectors will have to reorient themselves and restrategize themselves in order to meet the challenges. Therefore, we have to be committed constantly work in order to meet the objectives. Okay. I think there are concerns and they will remain and it will take time. Dr. Mehotra, I think as an economist, you will also agree that it takes time for economies to become stable and grow and that we can’t completely reject what India has achieved today. I have posity of time. Sanju, I leave it here. Thank you very much to all of you. Dr. Meotra advocate Kapil Madan Sanju Barha as well as Rajat Si for joining us on times now and sharing your perspective that ladies and gentlemen is all about the fourth largest economy in the world that India has become. Of course, the opposition upping the ante against the government, questioning the government on this. But the fact of the matter is that numbers and statistics don’t lie. And right in front of you is India’s reality. The reality of the Indian economy that it has certainly become a $4 trillion economy, the fourth largest in the world. We’re slipping into a short break. News and updates will continue on the other side.

India has officially overtaken Japan to become the fourth-largest economy globally, as confirmed by NITI Aayog, marking a major milestone in the nation’s economic growth.
#india #japan #economy #nitiaayog #timesnow #englishnews
Chapters:
0:00 India Becomes the Fourth Largest Economy: Key Highlights
0:30 Economic Growth Predictions: India’s Path to Third Largest Economy
1:00 IMF Forecasts: India’s Growth Compared to Global Economies
1:30 From Fragile Five to Economic Powerhouse: India’s Journey
2:00 Opposition Reactions: Criticism Amidst Economic Achievements
2:30 BJP’s Defense: Economic Growth Statistics and Job Creation
3:00 Debate on Economic Data: BJP vs Opposition Perspectives
3:30 Understanding GDP Growth: Historical Context and Current Figures
4:00 Per Capita Income: A Critical Indicator of Economic Health
4:30 Analyzing Unemployment Rates: Progress and Challenges
5:00 Economic Growth Amid Global Challenges: A Comparative Analysis
5:30 The Impact of COVID-19 on India’s Economy: Lessons Learned
6:00 Inflation Trends: Balancing Growth and Economic Stability
6:30 Future Projections: Can India Sustain High Growth Rates?
7:00 Conclusion: The Reality of India’s Economic Landscape