Australia’s warship deal with Japan helps plug gaps in current navy capabilities: Expert

Australia’s warship deal with Japan helps plug gaps in current navy capabilities: Expert

We’re joined by Jennifer Parker, expert associate at the National Security College at the Australian National University. So, professor, why is the frigot deal being described as a landmark agreement for both Australia and Japan? And what exactly sets this apart from other defense deals made in the past? Hey Grace, look, thanks so much for for having me on. Look, I think it’s it’s landmark or it’s significant for for two key reasons. The first is that uh this is really the largest defense export deal that Japan has ever signed. I mean it says $10 billion but that’s over the next 10 years. It will be more than $10 billion all up by the time the 11 ships are built. Uh two, it is an expansion of Australia’s naval surface combatant fleet which is much needed. Australia currently has 10 surface combatants for 50 years. We’ve had analysis telling us we need 20 because Australia is an island nation and we’re relying on Japan to help us get there. there and I think that is a key part of the relationship as well. The Australia Japan defense relationship has rapidly evolved in the last 10 years and in 2022 we kind of saw that crowned with the signing of a reciprocal access agreement and we saw a joint declaration on security cooperation that you know it’s not an alliance but it sounds very much like an alliance. So this is significant for those reasons and it will really prop up Japan as a defense exporter in the region. Of course, Japan is looking to sign deals on ships with other countries and it also helps Australia rebuild its navy. And Jennifer, let’s focus on how this will impact Australia because as someone with operational experience across a wide range of naval missions, I think you would be able to assess the strategic needs this deal is to meet for Australia. Yeah, look, when we think about uh Australia’s naval buildup, we need to remember that Australia is it’s an island. So, Australia is heavily dependent on maritime trade. 99% of our uh trade comes through the maritime domain. In fact, we import 91% of our fuel and other critical seaborn supply. Australia has the third largest exclusive economic zone in the world and it’s the fifth largest shipping user in the world. So when you think about those things, protecting Australia’s maritime domain and its critical seaborn supply is a really difficult task. And so we’ve over many years of kind of delayed decision-m we’ve ended up with a surface combatant fleet which is old. The ANZAC class as you mentioned were commissioned uh between 1996 and 2006 and we rapidly need to update them and we rapidly need to expand. So when you think about the sheer size of the task for Australia, you can understand why we are investing in more naval capability. And when you think about Japan as a significant ship builder in the region and a key partner for Australia, you can see why Australia and Japan are working on this together. And you mentioned region. So we’re going to be talking about the regional impact. This is Japan’s most significant defense export deal since lifting its arm export ban in 2014. So how significant is this deal for regional naval balance? Look, when we think about regional naval balance, it’s very clear that there has been a naval arms race in the Indo-Pacific over the last 15 years. I mean, you only need to look at China’s naval capability and see China has 370 uh warships, submarines, uh carrier aircraft, those sort of things. and they’re expected to build to over 500 in the next 5 years. That rapid naval buildup has destabilized the region in many ways and we’ve seen that in the vicinity of Taiwan with a large joint exercises. We’ve seen that in the South China Sea in terms of China’s aggression towards the Philippines. And so in response, of course, other countries are looking at their naval capability and the ability to protect their interest in the maritime domain. And I mentioned before how critical Australia’s interest in the maritime domain are to Australia’s economy and Australia’s national security. So we are seeing countries from Indonesia to the Philippines to Malaysia uh to Japan and South Korea looking at bolstering their neighbor naval capability and this is part of that trend. But I would say the slight difference is Australia and I mentioned the sheer size of Australia’s maritime domain and maritime dependencies has kind of always needed 20 surface combatants. governments weren’t willing to invest in that until now and that now is because of China’s behavior in the region and how that impacts naval sec Australia’s security interests. But the expansion of ships is not really just about China. It’s actually about protecting Australia’s interest and the size of Australia’s maritime domain. And looking beyond this deal, do you foresee Japan becoming a more active player in terms of regional defense industries or what’s your intake on that? Look, certainly I think Japan is keen to do so. So, we have seen Japan exporting some Coast Guard ships around the region. We saw a recent agreement between Japan and the Philippines for Japan to export some of its secondhand ships. And I think Japan is generally trying to embrace the region as a defense exporter. Of course, they have a lot of competition from South Korea who has been building ships uh and submarines, but I think you will see more countries engaging Japan on defense exports and I think that they will look to the relationship between Australia and Japan and this deal as a sign of confidence in that. Mhm. Now, we also should touch upon how Australia has an Augustus pact with the US and the UK and many experts have been analyzing that that’s also a way to bolster regional cooperation against China’s growing assertion there. But how does this new agreement complement or contrast with Australia’s AUS pact? Look, I think people often misinterpret what is really it’s it’s a capability agreement. Clearly there’s some elements of signaling uh to to kind of deter China but it is about fundamentally Australia acquiring nuclearpowered submarines and when you look at that in this deal you can see that Australia has really come alive to the fact that it is an island nation. It does need to be able to protect its maritime domain and to do that it needs a strong navy which requires nuclearpowered submarines but also a large surface combatant fleet. So they’re certainly linked in that day, that way. And I think Australia sees itself as contributing to a regional balance of power that allows the region to not be coerced by any specific country. All right, thank you so much for your insights. That was Jennifer Parker, expert associate at the National Security College at the Australian National University.

Australia will upgrade its navy with 11 Mogami-class frigates built by Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, amid a major military restructuring that includes acquiring long-range strike capabilities. Jennifer Parker, an expert associate at the Australian National University’s National Security College, tells CNA’s Asia Now that Australia is overdue in building up its navy fleet as it is heavily dependent on maritime transport. About 99 per cent of the nation’s trade volume is shipped by sea – including most of its fuel and other critical imports, leaving it vulnerable to shortages. Read more: https://cna.asia/4mvfmu1

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