Il Giappone difenderà davvero Taiwan?
Would Japan really intervene if China attacked Taiwan? Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent statements suggesting Tokyo might take military action if Beijing moves against the island have triggered diplomatic protests, economic retaliation, and anger in China. Drawing on deterrence theory and Japan’s revised security laws, this video analyses whether Tokyo’s warning is a credible signal or strategic messaging designed to deter Beijing, reassure Washington, and shape domestic politics. With growing concerns about the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, this deep dive traces the historical roots of Japan–China–Taiwan relations, from the First Sino-Japanese War to today’s shifting geopolitical landscape.
Despite Japan’s advanced Self-Defence Forces, its military limitations compared to China’s expanding naval strength and missile capabilities raise doubts about its ability to intervene in a Taiwan conflict without US support. Here, we assess Japan’s strategic calculations, the risks of escalation, and the implications of PM Takaichi’s comments for regional security. As Beijing’s military might rises and Taiwan’s future becomes central to Japan’s national security, Tokyo faces a difficult challenge: signalling resolve without triggering further instability. What appears certain is that achieving this balancing act be difficult.
*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:56 Deterrence in International Relations: Japan and China
02:04 A Comparison of China and Japan
03:42 Japan, China and Taiwan
05:31 Japan’s Growing Security Concerns Over China
07:34 Could Japan Match China?
08:53 What Lies Behind Japan’s Statement Over Taiwan?
10:34 Can Japan Really Deter a Chinese Attack on Taiwan?
*SUPPORT THE CHANNEL*
If you like my videos, please subscribe or become a Channel Member. Thank you!
SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE
http://www.youtube.com/c/JamesKerLindsay?sub_confirmation=1
BECOME A CHANNEL MEMBER
http://www.youtube.com/c/JamesKerLindsay/join
*MY LATEST BOOK!*
Secession and State Creation: What Everyone Needs to Know
Oxford University Press https://global.oup.com/academic/product/secession-and-state-creation-9780190494049
Amazon https://amzn.to/2MPY3W2
Some of the links above are affiliate links. These pay a small commission if you make a purchase. This helps to support the channel at no additional cost to you.
#Japan #China #Taiwan
44 Comments
Tensions have risen significantly between Beijing and Tokyo after the new Japanese Prime Minister< sanae Takaichi, suggested that Japan could come to Taiwan's aid if China attacked it. But just how likely do you think this is? What could Japan really do in the event of a Chinese invasion? And if this was really about deterrence, how credible is it? Will Beijing really take such comments seriously? Alternatively, will it help shore up US support for Taiwan? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.
THANK YOU JAMES!
The US is gonna back Taiwan. Japan is just provoking China on their behalf and I know Japan wants to invade and take half of their territory for revenge to rebuild their empire.
Takaichi should stop putting her foot in her mouth. China is not going to be deterred by Japan and it is just making the region more, not less unstable.
History of Japanese political statements have always been used to mask true intentions. So many examples , excuses in the past that got Chinese civilians killed on Taiwan, invading of Manchuria, unit 731, invading mainland China under a pretense, The rape of Nanking… and so on.. Japan is a country full of Right wing politicians and leaders who have not been reflective of their evil past. The Holocast in Germany pales insignificantly to what Japan did. Of course all this with US and its Allies not admitting and reprimanding Japan. US and Allies also participated in the century of humiliation on CHina and still does not want to let go off its Unipolar dominance and influence and wealth extraction from weaker countries .
It is quite interesting that, in response to China’s anger over Takaichi’s remarks, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te and several other Taiwanese politicians have expressed solidarity with Japan. Lai and others have posted photos on X of themselves eating sushi, seemingly poking fun at China’s ban on Japanese seafood imports. This is likely a gesture of reciprocity for former Prime Minister Abe, who posted a photo of himself eating pineapple when China banned imports of Taiwanese pineapples. Taiwan and Japan have repeatedly deepened their friendship whenever they have been criticized by China over political issues or faced hardship after major disasters. Multiple public opinion surveys show that Japan is the most favored country among people in Taiwan. China’s excessive criticism of Japan may therefore backfire, strengthening ties between Taiwan and Japan while weakening pro-China factions in both Taiwan and Japan.
In a recent poll Japanese people declared the USA the greatest threat to world peace.
そもそも日本単独のOperationとは全く言っていません。
米軍の後方支援を指しているのです。今回の首相の発言も。 みんな馬鹿だから話を聞いていない（笑）
https://youtube.com/shorts/CVkRPaRVFpU?si=F3yT99wLYHdBp2KG
2 points in this video are inaccurate. 1) Who says China wants to attack Japan? How is Japan's national security threatened when the China<>Taiwan debate is an "internal affair", nothing to do with Japan! If Japan does NOT interfere with China's internal affairs, where is the so called threat to Japan? This so called "China threat" is similar to that Australian rhetoric…all concocted by the US and its vassals to justify their attacks on China.
2) Japan's military is for "defense purpose only"???? Can you guarantee this?? From its past history, one cannot guarantee history will not be repeated. In fact a few commentators have pointed out Japan's increasing militarism and its abandonment of its PEACE CONSTITUTION. Japan's military spending increased by 9.4% in 2025 to a record $55.1 billion. This follows a 21% increase in 2024 to $55.3 billion. So a country of Anime, Cosplay and Hello Kitty can be deceiving.
Japan cannot help Taiwan without help from USA. China would beat them back if Japan tried to help Taiwan without help from its allies, especially USA.
Yes, Japan defends Taiwan because it does not have political independence and is an American state in East Asia and must follow the orders of its American master. 😂😂😂😂😂
These comments are insane.
It seems strange that you haven't noticed that the the arms race is well underway. Also you seem to assume that the Japanese PM's comment commits Japan to "defend" Taiwan as opposed to simply protecting Japan's interests. The spat is a crude attempt to intimidate and weaken the new PM. Y
Mainland China and Taiwan, please don't give America what they desperately wants.
USA don't care About Taiwan's independence or has to be sovereign at all, USA only cares about its moment of Economic and military might , it always looking for a way to hurt and derail China's Economy and millitary rise. US gave false hope hope to Taiwan which will definitely lead to its destruction,many will be killed, but that is not America's problem. Taiwanese leaders knew that they can not win war against mainland china, yet they still keep sending money to US for weapons. Proxy War is the only card US has to hurt China's rise. TAIWAN WILL BE DESTROYED AND MAINLAND CHINA'S ECONOMY WILL BE CRIPPLED, IN BOTH CASES AMERICA WINS.
I hope mainland China and Taiwan get through these without using kind of force. Remember, you are one people came from the same ancestors,same History,same Culture, same Language, same almost everything
Japan has very powerful kaiju it could deploy in a military conflict.
The Japanese are hot air talk. It’s only big talk no substance.
Takaichi Insanae will pay dearly not only with the Japanese blood, but also the full spectrum of its economic might. The new PM will be squashed by her own people.
Japanese PM wants another Ukraine situation in Japan
Of course they only can threaten and nothing else
Japan is not ready to defend itself. China can take on USA anytime…. No one gain from war.
Never talk about war.. Just keep quiet… The best solution
中国人希望先解决日本，这样台湾问题就迎刃而解
Unless Japan has a death wish, BRING IT ON
この人物が何者かは知らないが、日本の知識は皆無のようだ。高市総理は、アメリカが出てきた時に後方支援をすると言ってるだけ。中国と干戈を交えるとは言っていない。また、もし、中国が日本の領土に手を出してくれば、無論排除するだろうが。
The young Japanese do not know the atrocities committed by the Japanese miliary during WW2 and the start of the invasion of mainland China in 1931. This bloody hawkish PM is actively pushing for the revival of Japanese militarism to a more dangerous path with the revision of the Pacifist Constitution. If US do not stop Japan actions, a day will come if it really acquire nuclear weapon, not only US is in danger but the entire world – the revival of the Japanese military empire.
Let's forget the past, let's respect each other's sovereignty, let's live in harmony, let not our heart cover with greed, let's follow international laws.
The purpose of a law is to:
1. *Maintain order*: Establish rules to govern society and prevent chaos.
2. *Protect citizens*: Safeguard individual rights, safety, and property.
3. *Promote justice*: Ensure fairness and equality under the law.
4. *Regulate behavior*: Set standards for acceptable conduct.
5. *Resolve disputes*: Provide a framework for resolving conflicts.
Laws aim to balance individual freedoms with societal needs, promoting stability and justice.
Let's follow international laws, everything will be in harmony do not let our heart be overwhelmed with greed.
GREED is the problem of the world.
1Ti 6:6 KJV But godliness with CONTENTMENT is great gain.
Japan is great and people are beautiful but I always believe peace in the country is more important than living in threats.
作为中国人，我希望日本参战，一定要说到做到
Japan has a greater connection to Taiwan than the US, the island is a former Japanese colony and the economic connections thanks to that shared legacy are big and deep.
China tries its best not to hurt Taiwan,
and tries its best to control itself from wanting to hurt Japan.
So when Japan jumps right in between the mainland and Taiwan,
many Chinese feel thrilled — finally, a reason to deal with Japan once and for all.
James, great topic. I am glad Japan is signaling a component of deterrance theory. Japan is support the the free democratic nation of the Republic of China on the island of Taiwan.
Japan is a soverign nation and can make any foreign policy decisions/policies it wishes to pursue, with no veto effect by any other nation and this is helpful in deflating the PRC trying to be a hegemonic power in the western Pacific. Japan has extremely potent hard power capability & a RoK Navy officer once told me the JMSDF submarine systems, capabilities & professionalism is second only to the United States. This is true statement & the PRC is being deterred from adventurism by Japan saying their hard power capabilities needs to be considered by the PRC's cost benefit analysis, which creates deterrance.
The CCP would truly fear a defeat at sea by the JMSDF in an invasion of Taiwan situation. That would be politically destrustive to the one party monopoly the CCP has in the PRC. So we can assume with strong confidence this reinforces the deterrance effects Japan is trying to create.
Thanks as always for your podcast that provides a positive platform for dialog on international national relations.
It seems to me that the Taiwan issue is an internal China one, left over from thier civil war. None of anyone else’s business. Japan is the very last country to get involved as they are not very well like by thier neighbours.
Defend Taiwan for the purpose to re-colonizing Taiwan, Yes.
It’s beyond absurd to me that Chinese bots here try to relate anything with WW2 80 years ago yet are completely oblivious to what happened in the last 80 years.
Japan aspires to become a second Ukraine, yet this remains technically near-impossible. With Japan's 2024 birth rate plummeting to 680,000, and considering Ukraine's loss of 10 million people over three years of war, Japan stands to lose the equivalent of its total new births over the next 15 years. Should Japan's population decline, it will accelerate the influx of large-scale immigration from India and Africa to replenish its numbers, effectively leading to demographic replacement. The current Japanese Prime Minister was not elected for her assertive foreign policy stance, but rather as a proponent of anti-immigration measures. Moreover, while Ukraine fights for its freedom, the Japanese people are compelled to wage war due to their Prime Minister's ill-advised remarks. This demonstrates that she and her administration will inevitably collapse, paving the way for a successor committed to ending the conflict and championing pe
Japan is seeking to expand its military strength partly to free itself from U.S. strategic control. At the same time, it understands that the United States would welcome Japan playing a role similar to Ukraine’s—in other words, becoming a frontline state in a potential conflict with another American rival, China. Just as Ukraine has served to weaken Russia, Japan could be used to counterbalance and weaken China, giving the U.S. more room to pursue its own “MAGA” agenda. Japan also believes that the U.S. would provide it with resources and military support, enabling it to experience another period of economic gain similar to the one before the Plaza Accord. To put it simply, Japan wants to return to being a nation capable of matching the United States in power, as it aspired to be during the Second World War, but with the US's support.
Will China protect Venezuela when US illegally invades them to take their oil?
中国が台湾に侵攻するなら日本にも侵攻するだろ
Japan is far more powerful than Ukraine and serves as an aircraft carrier for the U.S. military.
Ryukyu should be decolonised. USA was supposed to hold the islands as a trustee for the UN. They should never have been transferred back to Japan
We Taiwanese appreciate support from other countries, especially from our good friend Japan, but ultimately we must rely on ourselves.
Because China blocks Taiwan from joining international organizations, if war breaks out, we would not be bound by international constraints. After more than 70 years of threats, Taiwanese people are reaching their limit. If China attacks, we know the 23 million people here may not survive, so we would use all our missiles and weapons, and even civilians would resist. Even if Taiwan falls, China would suffer heavy losses and be set back for decades.😊😊
In a parliamentary response to a question about national security, the Japanese Prime Minister stated, "If the straits on major routes were closed, it would pose a threat to Japan's existence."
We asked AI if this was actually true.
"If the Bashi Channel, through which 90% of Japan's crude oil and natural gas transport passes, were to be closed and we were forced to switch to alternative routes, it would delay energy supplies and significantly increase costs.
If the blockage were to continue for a long time, it would have a direct impact on Japan's economic activity and the lives of its people, with power shortages, a sudden rise in gasoline prices, and a halt to production in domestic industries, and would likely develop into a veritable 'existence crisis.' The Makassar Strait, which is expected to be an alternative route, would be longer, more expensive, and more difficult to navigate due to its numerous shallow waters, which could lead to frequent groundings. In other words, a blockade of the Bashi Channel would expose serious vulnerabilities in Japan's energy and resource supply system, and the resulting major economic blow could lead to a serious situation that would shake the very foundation of the nation's existence," the AI replied.
What should be condemned is the "absurdity of another country suddenly bringing up sanctions and interfering in domestic parliamentary debates concerning the security of a sovereign nation."
The question if Japan can defend Taiwan is a redundant one- it clearly cannot
The real question is rather why such statement was made and why at this point?
頼むから、嘘情報を流すのをやめてくれよ。
高市総理の発言は、日本の安全法制に関して、野党議員がしつこく台湾の名前をあげて、質問してきたものに答えたもので、その内容は、台湾を中国が武力行使で抑えようとした場合に、米軍がこれに対して行動した場合に、中国が米軍に攻撃を加えるないし、その可能性が高い状況であれば、米軍を助ける行動をする「可能性がある」というものだけだ。
必ずしも台湾を直接武力行使で守るというものではないし、中国が平和的に台湾を吸収するなら、それに対してどうこう言う気は無い。
ほとんどの英語報道は間違ってるし、中国も勝手に間違った解釈をして騒いでるだけだ。