Il Giappone sta finalmente uscendo dai decenni perduti?

Il Giappone sta finalmente uscendo dai decenni perduti?

Imagine a country that was once poised to dominate the global economy technological powerhouse with seemingly unstoppable growth that had economists predicting it would surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy. Then almost overnight, everything changed. Stock markets are crashing 60%. Property values are plummeting. An entire generation left wondering what happened to their promising future. This isn’t fiction. This is Japan. Since the 1990s, for over three decades, the world’s third largest economy has been trapped in a cycle of stagnation, deflation, and mounting debt that economists simply call the lost decades. But now, something remarkable is happening. After years of false dawn and disappointed hopes, structural signals suggest Japan may finally be breaking free from its economic prison. To understand where Japan is going, we need to understand where it’s been. In the 1980s, Japan was the economic marvel of the world. This manufacturing juggernaut seemed unstoppable. Its tech sector was booming. Its exports dominated global markets and real estate prices were astronomical. The Nicay stock index soared to nearly 39,000 in 1989. But it was all a bubble fueled by cheap credit, speculative investing, and government complacency. Take the notorious example of the Ginsa district in Tokyo, where at the height of the bubble, one square meter of land sold for over $300,000. This means a single square foot costs more than $30,000, enough to buy entire houses in many American cities at the time. When the Bank of Japan finally raised interest rates to control inflation in 1989, the House of Cards collapsed. The Nicay stock index fell from nearly 39,000 points to under 15,000 in just 3 years. Property values in major urban centers dropped by up to 70%. What followed wasn’t a typical recession, but something far more insidious. A multi-deade economic malaise characterized by deflation. Japan became the first major economy in the post-war era to experience persistent deflation. Prices didn’t just stabilize, they actively fell year after year. While this might sound positive for consumers, it creates a destructive psychological cycle. Why buy today when it will be cheaper tomorrow? Zombie companies. Rather than allowing creative destruction, Japan’s baking system kept failing companies artificially alive. Companies like Saporro Motors and the Dier retail chain survived despite years of losses, diverting capital from more productive uses. Japan lost not one, not two, but over three decades of growth. Youth unemployment rose. Birth rates plummeted. A demographic time bomb began ticking. The turnaround began in 2012 with Prime Minister Shinszo AB’s three arrows. Massive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms. While criticized as slowm moving, these policies planted seeds for long-term change. Aggressive monetary easing. The Bank of Japan under Governor Haruhiko Curoda launched unprecedented quantitative easing targeting 2% inflation. Corporate governance overhaul. Japan Inc. was infamous for hoarding cash. New rules forced firms to improve shareholder returns. Companies like Toyota and Sony now prioritize buybacks and dividends. The result, foreign investments surged to $ 24 billion in 2023. Labor reforms laws capped overtime and encouraged women’s workforce participation. Female employment hit a record 73% in 2023, adding millions to the economy. Initial results were promising. The stock market doubled in value. The yen weakened, boosting exports. Corporate profits hit record highs. However, progress was uneven. The monetary policy was implemented vigorously, but the structural reforms proved more difficult to fully execute due to entrenched interests and institutional resistance. Additionally, external shocks like the 2014 consumption tax increase and global economic headwinds periodically interrupted Japan’s momentum. Despite these challenges, Abnomics laid crucial groundwork for the economic improvements we’re seeing today. The policies helped break the deflationary mindset that had gripped Japan for decades and initiated import structural changes that would take years to fully manifest. As we look at Japan’s economy in 2025, there are compelling signs that the country may finally be emerging from its long economic winter. Multiple indicators suggest that the structural changes implemented through economics and subsequent administrations are beginning to bear fruit. Perhaps the most significant indicator of economic revival is the dramatic improvement in wage growth. According to recent data, the 2024 Shunto wage negotiations, the annual spring wage bargaining between unions and companies resulted in a base pay raise of 3.7%, substantially higher than the previous year’s 2.1%. This represents the largest base pay increase in decades. After decades of struggling with deflation, Japan is now experiencing sustained inflation above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. While inflation initially surged due to global factors like energy prices and supply chain disruptions, it has become more broad-based, indicating deeper economic changes. Importantly, unlike previous inflationary episodes, this one is accompanied by wage growth, suggesting it may be sustainable. One of the most profound changes has been in corporate governance. Japanese companies were long known for prioritizing stakeholders over shareholders, maintaining large cash reserves, and resisting restructuring even when businesses were unprofitable. Today, we’re seeing a dramatic shift. Companies like Sony, Toyota, and Hitachi have transformed their boardroom structures to include more independent directors, increased shareholder returns, and pursued more aggressive growth strategies. Specifically, Toyota has reinvented itself through massive investments in electric vehicle technology and artificial intelligence, moving beyond its traditional strengths in hybrid vehicles. Sony has successfully diversified beyond consumer electronics into entertainment, gaming, and image sensors, creating multiple growth engines. These transformations reflect a broader shift in Japanese corporate culture toward a greater focus on profitability and shareholder value. Japan is experiencing a renaissance in innovation after decades of incremental improvements. The company is leveraging its traditional strengths in robotics and automation to address its demographic challenges. Companies like SoftBank Robotics and Cyberdine are developing robots for elderly care, manufacturing and service industries. Meanwhile, startups like preferred networks and craft technologies are making significant advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning. Japan’s demographic crisis remains its most formidable long-term challenge. The population is not only aging rapidly but also shrinking with the working age population declining by about 500,000 people annually. This creates a fundamental constraint on economic growth and puts enormous pressure on social security systems. As an exportoriented economy, Japan remains vulnerable to global economic headwinds. Trade tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic slowdowns in key markets like China and the United States could impact Japan’s economic recovery. Japan’s journey from economic superstar to cautionary tale and potentially now to comeback story offers profound lessons about economic management and resilience. After three decades of struggling with the aftermath of its bubble economy collapse, Japan appears to be turning a corner driven by structural reforms, innovative adaptations to demographic challenges, and the breaking of deflationary expectations. While significant challenges remain, particularly from demographics and public debt, Japan’s economic revival demonstrates that even the most intractable economic problems can be overcome with persistence, policy, innovation, and structural reform. Thank you for watching. If you enjoyed this video, don’t forget to hit the like button and subscribe. [Music]

Why Japan’s Lost Decades May Be Coming to an End?

Japan is cautiously emerging from its “Lost Decades,” a prolonged period of economic stagnation and deflation that began in the early 1990s. Recent data and expert analyses suggest that while the Japanese economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, significant challenges remain before it can be considered fully revitalized. Economic growth projections for Japan are positive but modest. For fiscal years 2024 through 2026, growth rates are expected to hover around 0.7% to 0.9% annually, with calendar-year GDP growth forecasted at about 1.1% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a notable GDP increase of 2.8% on an annualized basis, though this was largely driven by a decrease in imports rather than strong domestic demand, which remains subdued. Private consumption, a key driver of growth, has shown tentative signs of picking up but remains fragile, hampered by rising food prices and inflation that have dampened consumer sentiment. Real wages briefly turned positive in late 2024 due to seasonal bonuses but are expected to decline again in early 2025 as these effects fade. Business investment is improving, and corporate profits are on the rise, though the pace is moderate. Exports have been relatively flat but recently show some improvement, though external risks persist. The global economic slowdown, particularly in the U.S., Europe, and China’s real estate market, poses downside risks. Additionally, rising interest rates abroad and geopolitical uncertainties further complicate Japan’s economic outlook. The Japanese government and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remain committed to overcoming deflation and fostering sustainable growth through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies. The government emphasizes a growth-oriented economy driven by wage increases and investment, aiming to create a virtuous cycle between wages and prices. The BoJ targets a stable 2% inflation rate, conducting flexible monetary policy to support economic activity while monitoring price developments closely.
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