Trump’s Indo-Pacific Vision & Japan’s Strategic Autonomy
uh I think President Trump’s uh main priorities for the Indopacific region uh consists of several uh probably priorities number one uh I think he’s primarily concerned with uh the economic uh trade imbalances in the region so uh starting with China uh I think he wants to address the trade imbalance issue also same with uh Japan and also South Korea and others so uh the primary interest of p uh President Trump in Indoacific region is economic I think uh secondly I don’t think he wants to see a regional conflict erupt uh particularly over Taiwan so he will probably want to have his China hawk uh cabinet members to work on uh various efforts uh regarding defense cooperation with regional states in order to deter uh China from uh uh undertaking aggression against Taiwan and lastly maybe North Korea uh we have yet to see uh what kind of policy President Trump would like to pursue uh visit North Korea but I think he also wants to uh advance uh denuclearization uh of North Korea [Applause] yes I think uh right now uh one of the central uh issue uh between Japan and the United States is the tariff issue uh the Japanese government has undertaken uh maybe five or six rounds of talks uh with the Trump administration trying to work out uh the uh resolution of the tariff issue right now but I don’t think uh they have a package agreement uh yet in sight so it is a work in progress uh but nevertheless a very important one uh Japan is trying to handle this tariff issue uh by for example uh proposing the increase the import of uh liquid natural gas LNG and also maybe grains and also uh semiconductor uh related uh material so those are uh the first I I think lab of the negotiation second is the security uh realm uh I think uh the Japanese ministry of defense and also uh the US Department of Defense have already uh undertaken significant progress uh in the area of defense cooperation and many of them will continue uh but one of the politically uh sensitive issue that has come up is the uh target level of um uh 3.5% of GDP uh for defense spending is a is a new issue and they have to tackle this issue uh in the coming uh weeks and months I think yes and so those are the two uh main areas uh where uh Japan is working uh to strengthen uh relationship with the United States rather than uh take a sort of a different attack from previous administrations yeah [Applause] in the Japanese context strategic autonomy uh refers to uh probably two elements uh first is the enhancement of uh Japan’s defense capability uh right now Japan is now uh aiming to uh achieve uh 2% of GDP on uh 2022 GDP basis by 2027 and it is uh currently considering uh increasing and enhancing its defense capabilities beyond 2027 so that uh is one uh very probably the central element uh in uh Japan strategic autonomy the idea is that if Japan uh increases its defense capability it would this would have uh not only the deterrent effect in the region but also uh strengthening uh US defense commitment uh toward Japan and the second uh element is uh advancing uh security cooperation with like-minded countries in the region and this has taken the form of uh trilateral uh defense cooperation for example US Japan South Korea US Japan Australia and US Japan Philippines and also um non-defense areas uh under the umbrella of the quad uh for example and there are also uh Japanese uh defense and/security cooperation with European countries uh one for is the IP4 uh in NATO countries and also uh Japan has an ongoing uh program uh with uh UK and Italy uh called GCAP uh global combat air program uh that is a sort of a new endeavor uh for Japan so Japan is reaching out not only not strengthening the traditional Japan US alliance but it’s also reaching out uh to other uh countries not only inside uh the Indopacific but also uh in the European area uh to advance its uh security so those are some of the elements uh that are considered to be included in Japan’s uh notion of strategic autonomy [Applause]
Satoru Mori, Senior Fellow at the Nakasone Peace Institute, explores key insights into President Trump’s likely priorities for the Indo-Pacific region. His primary concerns include addressing economic trade imbalances with countries like China, Japan, and South Korea. Additionally, he aims to deter regional conflicts, particularly over Taiwan, and wishes to advance the denuclearization of North Korea.
He also delve into how Japan should respond to the second Trump presidency. Key policy adjustments for Japan involve tackling tariff issues by proposing increased imports of liquid natural gas (LNG), grains, and semiconductors. Another important area is defense cooperation, especially regarding the politically sensitive target level of 3.5% of GDP for defense spending. Japan is actively working to strengthen its relationship with the United States in these areas.
Furthermore, the discussion elaborates on the concept of “strategic autonomy” in the Japanese context. This refers to two main elements:
• Enhancement of Japan’s defense capability: Japan is currently aiming to achieve 2% of GDP in defense spending by 2027 (based on 2022 GDP) and is considering further increases beyond that. This increase is intended to serve as a deterrent in the region and strengthen the US defense commitment toward Japan.
• Advancing security cooperation with like-minded countries: Japan is expanding its security partnerships beyond the traditional US-Japan alliance. This includes trilateral defense cooperation (e.g., US-Japan-South Korea, US-Japan-Australia, US-Japan-Philippines), collaboration in non-defense areas under the umbrella of the Quad, and security cooperation with European countries such as the IP4 in NATO and the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) with the UK and Italy. This demonstrates Japan’s effort to advance its security not only within the Indo-Pacific but also by reaching out to European partners.
This comprehensive overview provides a clear understanding of the complex dynamics shaping the Indo-Pacific under a potential second Trump administration and Japan’s evolving strategic approach.
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