Stocks pop on Japan trade deal news, Big Tech earnings expectations

Stocks pop on Japan trade deal news, Big Tech earnings expectations

[Music] Hello and welcome to Market Domination. I’m Josh Lipton live from our NYC headquarters. We’re on tech earnings watch now and bringing you everything you need to know from a toz on Alphabet and Tesla. Both reporting of course after the closing bell. We still have an hour of trading to go. So, let’s check in on the markets here as investors saw stocks popping on the latest agreement with Japan. There are also multiple reports Wednesday that the US and the European Union are closing in on a trade and tariff deal. The Financial Times reports the agreement would see US tariffs on EU imports dip to 15% instead of the 30% Trump had threatened. You look across your screen right now, green everywhere. We’ve got the Dow about 470 points. Your broad gauge, the S&P 500 is up about 7/10en of a percent and your tech heavy NASDAQ up about half percent. Let’s welcome in here now Dave Maza, CEO at Roundill Investments. We got senior auto reporter Praz Sumerian and tech editor. That would be Dan Howie joining us throughout the show to break down these earnings headlines. Praz let’s start with you my friend on what to expect with those Tesla earnings. Yeah Josh you know a lot on the agenda here for for Musk and crew but you know let’s just stick you know with the core auto business here. That’s sort of the obviously the main money maker still for the company and investors are expecting uh 26.6 22.64 billion in revenue about a 9% drop from a year ago and adjusted EPS of 42 cents a share. We’ve been seeing deliveries were weak in the second quarter. How much of that is because of the new Model Y changeover. Want to hear more about that. Uh also we want to look at the robo taxi roll out. Right. So good news in Austin there. The rollout’s happening tests are happening. There’s expansion in the territory. There have been some little hiccups here with with traffic issues or minor traffic violations, but the question is where the next where’s the next expansion going to be going as a California elsewhere? Are we going to see them use uh uh uh not use the safety drivers as they are right now in Austin? A long way to go to catch up to the leader uh Whimo. And finally, where is that cheap EV? Right, we’ve been asking about this cheap EV for for over a year now. It’s supposed to help boost Tesla’s sort of overall market uh get to that lower income consumer. We haven’t seen it. We haven’t even seen any pictures yet. We’re supposed it’s supposed to be in production already, but that could be the it could be the case. It’s going be pushed till the end of the year. Uh potentially, one analyst said waiting till the possible expiration of the EV tax credits. That’s when you might see a new e cheap EV. We’ll see. We’ll see what happens later today. Lot to kind of discuss and see on the call. Pros, let me ask you. So core EV business, you got robo taxis. What about humanoid robots too, Pros? I mean, we know listen very excited about that. You think any chance we get some some updates there? maybe some new guidance timelines. I mean, a lot of these stuff that Musk been saying about the Optimus robots been a lot of pie in the sky kind of things like 25,000 robots by the end of next year, robots in the factory. We might hear more some actual, you know, concrete details. I think there was some reports that the robots were actually working on some battery modules. Maybe we’ll hear more about what they’re actually doing in the factory, but I think that’s going to be more of a three to fiveyear type of thing. Uh we’ll see if we get any update on that, but I think that it’s a little bit it is again more of a pie in the sky thing with the robots. Uh even though that is that is a big part of that, you know, kind of over trillion dollar market is for human robots. Dave, your thoughts on all things Musk and and EV makers results coming up. Yeah, look, this has become a theme sort of every quarter. There’s been a lot of bad news priced into the stock. There’s bad news on revenue. There’s bad news on earnings. We know the core auto business has been under pressure in this EV winner and now competitors uh whether it’s in China with BYD and others or even General Motors selling you know a significantly lower price uh EV than Tesla’s at this point. But as noted there’s still a lot to sort of be excited about and I think that’s why investors continue to price the dream premium into Tesla. So whether we see sort of opportunities for growth in the core business with new models actually coming in sort of a defined timeline noted humanoid robotics something we’re excited about um over the longer run with the stock but they’re going to have to sort of again really get into a position where they can sort of be a little bit more definitive than they have been particularly because Tesla’s side hustle at least last quarter became its main hustle in regards to selling the EV credits. Uh and we know there’s going to be some challenges there with uh what happened with the big beautiful bill. Yeah, the report so so critical of course and so will be Elon Musk comments on the call. Dan Howie, let’s switch gears here. Tell us what to expect from from Alphabet. Yeah, there’s a few things that we’re looking at. It’s comes down to AI spending, AI revenue uh and then the uh cloud revenue that they’re seeing. Uh student had talked about how 1.5 billion people are using its AI overviews. That’s that little uh kind of AI uh blurb you get at the top of your search results. Does that mean people are specifically using that or does it just mean 1.5 billion people who are searching also get access to that? It’s not exactly clear. He also had mentioned previously that they see uh queries that are two times longer when people are using uh AI rather than when they’re using search. I mean that’s a great stat, but what does that mean as far as the revenue goes? How much are they actually making off of their AI? How much are they then continuing to invest? They have plans to spend $75 billion this year uh on data centers, building out models, things like that. Where does that then lead? And then there’s also just the general idea of Google Cloud Platform. This has been a a growth opportunity for them to try to catch up with the likes of Microsoft uh and Amazon. What does that look like moving forward? How much does AI play into that? And then just generally for the numbers, we’re looking at uh adjusted earnings per share projected of $2.17 on revenue XTC, that’s traffic ex acquisition costs, the kind of deals that they have with Apple and Samsung to get people to to use Google search. That would come in at 79.6 billion. That would be an 11.6% jump. And then quickly on search, uh they’re expecting revenue of 52.7 billion, YouTube ad revenue of 9.5 billion. Dave, uh, so you look at this stock here. We’re basically flat year to date and it’s because of some of the themes, uh, that are being highlighted there by Dan. It’s AI search. I, you know, also I think the Monopoly lawsuits, but what what are your expectations here? Yeah, it’s interesting. So, this was, you know, been a lagard at least from until recently of of the introduction of AI compared to sort of the other magnificent seven names. But the stock actually trades its relatively attractive multiples, right? Let’s call it 20 times forward earnings. Um, the name was under pressure for the the better part of this year. Since May, it’s been on a nice rally, outperforming the S&P 500. Had a kind of golden cross with the 50-day average moving above the tech uh the 200 day, excuse me. So, technicians are getting more interested in this name. And if we actually look at the options market uh here uh is looking for a 6% move either positively or negatively, which is higher than its average move um in on earnings days. And so I actually think the street is sort of cautiously optimistic on what Alphabet’s going to be able to produce here. But at the end of the day, it’s going to come down to what does those cloud margins look like? We saw double judge doubledigit growth, excuse me, in Q1. Can they continue that? And then of course, what’s happening um with the potential for for uh the crown the Chrome browser uh and if they’re able to kind of share any uh uh insights into what’s happening there. Dan, you know, it’s so interesting. You you look at the stock and a concern has been and we’ve talked about this a lot, Dan, is just AI and some investors obviously worried here about what it means for search, what it means for Google’s bread and butter looking forward. How well, Dan, do you think Google has told its AI story? How well do you think they’ve explained their AI position and strategy to the street, to analysts, to investors? I I think they’ve told it plenty well, right? They’ve explained to us where the the AI is going to be fitting in. and they have it in Google Workspaces. That’s not a huge revenue driver, right? It’s really about search. And so, you know, they have AI overviews. They also have something called AI mode. Uh, and then they have the Gemini app. It’s all this disperate kind of ideas that Google always tends to have. I mean, they’ve they have 8 million apps for everything. And that’s kind of been one of their big problems. I think one of the issues that people are still trying to wrap their head around is how are you going to monetize that aspect of it, right? We get how you’re going to do it with Google Cloud uh and Google Enterprise. You’re going to get, you know, users in uh through the enterprise cloud. You’re going to get people to be using your uh your cloud to try to build out their own models or deploy their own models. Great. What are you going to do when it comes to search? How are you going to monetize that? How are ads going to fit into say AI mode, which is more of a kind of chat GPT uh uh uh kind of analogy, right? Uh how are you going to make sure that uh AI overviews allows for ads to fit in there? Now, they’ve shown some of the the options for that, how that’ll look uh down the line, and it does look like it would be a pretty competent uh search kind of alternative. I think the other issue though, and this is just kind of an existential threat for Google uh on on on the whole is, you know, more people are trying out ChatGpt. ChatGpt’s got its own browser in the works. Uh Perplexity uh is out there. We have Anthropic out there. There’s there’s rival browsers uh from Perplexity. So, you know, are people going to continue to stay with Google or are they going to start moving off? Big questions. Praise Dan. Thank you. We’re going to hear from you guys after the results. Well, big tech is in focus as earning season kicks into high gear. Now, our next guest says it’s still a tale of two cities in the tech sector. For more, we’re bringing in Dominic Rizzo, portfolio manager of the Global Technology Fund at Troll Price. Dom, it is good to see you. So, let’s start right there as we head into big tech earnings season. Dom, I I like how you frame it. You say what we have here is a tale of two cities in tech. Explain what you mean by that for us, Dom. Yeah, great to see you again, Josh. You know, if you look at earnings so far, what we’ve seen is a tale of two cities. AI really strong. Everything else, smartphones, PCs, auto, industrial, pretty tepid growth. And so, I’ll give you an example. Let’s look at TSMC. TSMC saw 60% of their business driven by high performance computing and AI. And that grew 60% year-over-year. The 3 nanometer node, which is the node where a lot of the AI is going to start happening going forward, grew triple digits, over 100% year-over-year. Yeah, you look at smartphone and PC growth and it was, you know, meh. Turn look at something like ASML, their extreme ultraviolet lithography business, the business that makes those beautiful 250 million euro machines that that um do all the printing of the circuitry before AI comes through. That’s going to grow 30% year-over-year. This year, DUV, there are older nodes that serve China, auto industrial, that’s going to be relatively flat. Look at names like NXPI, Texas Instruments, both saw their auto businesses relatively flat. Texas was slightly up. So what we’re seeing is AI really strong, rest of the areas in tech, you know, relatively tepid growth. Now the question is what’s going to happen 12 to 18 months from now for those other areas of tech and and Don though if I want to if I’m an investor listening right now and okay tail two cities but I want to bet hey looking ahead there is going to be a recovery in auto industrial what are the smart ways to play that? Yeah. So, I really like areas where you could actually play both sides of the coin, right? So, I’ll give you a name like Infinian. So, Infinian’s a really interesting company because 80% of their revenue is driven by auto and industrial, but these are the guys that are the experts in power semiconductors in the world. And what do we all know about AI? That power consumption is going to absolutely go through the roof. So, if you look at the numbers for Infinian, it’s pretty incredible the content gains that we’re seeing in GPU servers relative to traditional CPU servers. Traditional CPU servers will have, you know, $100 or less of tra in Infinidian content. A GPU server from Nvidia, a blackmail server, will have north of $14,000 of an infinitian power semiconductor content within it. And so I think that the infinian AI business can kind of go from low single digits today to high single digits to low double digit percentage of the total business as that 80% of the rest of the business that’s tied to auto and industrial starts to see acceleration over the next 12 to 18 months as we get more certainty around things like tariffs, the big beautiful bill and we start to see capback spending come back. You mentioned tariffs there Dom that of course is another big theme in addition to AI. How should tech investors listening right now, Dom, be thinking about how to navigate that dynamic? Well, so the thing with tariffs that’s so interesting is the markets kind of look past them and and it actually makes sense, right? So tariffs really only directly impact roughly 9% of US GDP, right? It’s actually not that big in terms of the overall spending, our global economy and of the US economy in particular. And we’re starting to see deals come through. Japan, Europe, it looks like may happen. Obviously, tensions with China have come down, but when you talk to the companies themselves, the businesses themselves, you know, I was on a call with a CEO this morning and he was saying, “Hey, Dom, until there’s absolute certainty with regards to what these deals look like, it’s tough to see customers start to spend and commit to big capex projects that are going to take 5 years.” So we have to see that kind of come through here in August and see what happens on August 1st in order to get that certainty around tariffs that can kind of start that capex cycle. But the thing that you have in the big beautiful bill is you have that 100% depreciation super super depreciation of expenses, right? So if you get certainty around tariffs and you have um 100% expensing, you can see a real big capex cycle from here. When I think tariffs, Dom, you know, I I do think of those chip names uh first and foremost. Your thoughts on Nvidia and AMD? Yeah, so look, big picture, they remain extraordinarily well positioned, both of them. We’re going from a $45 billion AI chip world in in two uh two years ago to a $500 billion chip world in in 2028. Within that, Nvidia will remain the lion share. But I think AMD is really become the only true second source to Nvidia in terms of someone who can offer full rack scale computing with their new MI400 that’s coming out and and you know amazing general purpose parallel processing, right? So I think that AMD is really well set up from here. You have revenue that’s accelerating, operating margins that are expanding, free cash flow conversions that end proving. The numbers look a little too low on the street to me. And you have um their ability to sell back into China now, which should really help on the AI side through 2025 as we get into 2026 for that MI400 launch, which is that big rack scale that’s going to really be the competitor with Nvidia. So both remain extremely well positioned and and I think that that AI trade can keep going from here. You know, as we talk about big tech earnings season here, Dom, you know, a lot of these names of course had big moves off those April lows. How broadly, Dom, would you characterize valuations? Well, if we take a step back and we say, okay, the Q’s are up over 35% from their bottom in Apollo, right? So tougher expectations heading into the quarter. Now we’ve seen names like SAP have really strong numbers and you know kind of down three four percent on the back of really strong numbers because expectations had gotten so high. So I think expectations have gotten higher into this print. That being said I think AI is going to be really strong and industrial auto is going to come back. If I take a look at the valuations themselves the global technology universe is kind of trading at 24 25 times earnings today. Historically, that will hit near-term peaks at 27 to 28 times earnings. And in periods of bubbles, you could see north of 30 times earnings. So, I I look at valuations saying that they’re on the higher end of historical averages, but not quite at that expensive range yet. Dom, always great to see you and to have you on the show. Thank you, sir. Great to see you, Josh. Talk soon. Well, we are just getting started here on Market Domination. Coming right up, Crispy Cream and GoPro among the companies riding the latest meme stock rally. We’re going to dive into the latest moves on the other side. Plus, at 3:30, it’s the latest edition of our series, Goodbye or Goodbye. We’re taking a deeper dive into two stocks to help you make the best moves to your portfolio. Stick around. Much more market domination still to come. [Music] A new chapter in President Trump’s trade war. New reports suggesting the European Union and the US could be moving closer to a tariff agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most products. It would mirror a deal with Japan, lowering tariffs to 15% on autoimp imports and goods. For how investors should be thinking through these headlines, we’re joined now by Thomas Martin, Global Investments senior portfolio manager. Tom, it is great to see you. Let’s talk about this trade and tariff news, uh, Tom, because we had Trump announced, of course, the deal with Japan. Now, we have this FT headline, too, Tom. The US EU perhaps closing in on a on a 15% tariff deal. What do you make of these headlines, Tom? What should investors make of them? Well, Josh, thanks for having me on your program. Um, you know, uh, we’ve been waiting, um, really it hasn’t been all that long. It just seems like a long time since April 2nd. I mean, as the negotiations happen and, you know, I think Scott Besson said it perfectly is that, you know, we want good deals. Uh, the timeline doesn’t really make that much of a difference, but we do want to have serious talks and have people come to the table. Um, and it’s taken a little bit longer than people expected hopefully, but it is starting to come through and you’re starting to get um, tariff numbers that if these deals hold and aren’t renegotiated um, they’re high, but they’re lower than I think people’s worst fears. Um, and it’s starting to put some resolution uh, into uh, various companies and categories. So, you’re seeing some of the uncertainty taken out. Uh and that’s why you know the market tends to sort of inch upward on this. It’s it’s generally a positive backdrop. So Tom is your point investors see this I mean listen we’re talking about tariffs 15% it’s meaningful but is your point Thomas well folks see that and they think it’s it’s at least not the maximalist kind of position Trump was talking about back in April and there’s a sigh of relief there. Well, it’s not just that, but it’s also that we had um you know, we’re in our second quarter of tariff era um reporting of earnings and companies making comments and um uh talking about how it has affected their business and what the actions are that they’re taking. And I think what we’re seeing uh is that, you know, companies are able to move. Uh I mean some are kind of boxed in but there are a lot of things that they can do. Uh and you know you see it overall in the market in the earnings estimates which really came down um after the uh first quarter was reported um and have now stabilized and started to move up a little bit more and I think that’s because uh people are realizing that companies can deal with these tariffs. Um, so in addition to the environment getting more settled, I think it’s it’s more positive that companies are able to mitigate these. Dave Mans, I want to bring in you and get your thoughts as well about trade and tariffs, how investors are reacting. I’m just looking at the popular averages, Dave. S&P 500 hits another record. Dow’s up about 460 points. What do you make of it? Well, I think for the short term here, and for better or worse, and I guess I would say better, uh, the markets have really moved on from tariffs. Um right now obviously today is really the beginning the Super Bowl of earning season and that’s going to become begin the focus. Of course then we’ll kind of position and start thinking about the Fed. So tariffs have become this background noise and for the most part even though there’s been pockets of sort of negative headlines, the EU being a big one, you know, a few weeks back we’re seeing deals get done. Now, at some point, I think the investment community needs to take an appreciation of, well, what impact will this ultimately have um on earnings of companies if they’re going to be the ones eating it. But for the t for the time being, again, markets are moving on from it. Tom, I want to bring you back. Uh, you know, we’re talking tariffs. Of course, we have to talk about big tech earnings. Got two big names reporting after the bell. What’s on the line for investors with these big tech reports, Tom? What’s at stake? Well, you know, you’ve had a market that again, it’s at all-time highs and you had tech uh and you know, the MAG 7 which went down significantly and people were talking about a market rotation and a change in leadership. Um, and that just hasn’t happened. They came they’ve come roaring back. They still have the lion’s share of the earnings relative to the other, you know, 493 companies. and technology just has the the winds at its back for getting that earnings growth. So those are the companies that um are important to this economy. They’re driving um the earnings growth and they’re they’re driving the uh the stock prices. Are you Tom in the camp? And I’ve had we have some smart strategists on the show recently. They do look at the move off the April low Tom and they say you know boy we we sure do look like we could be poised for a breather here, a pullback, maybe a correction. What do you think? Well, we’re um uh in terms of technicals, we’re getting into the part of the year where you really um ordinarily see a flattening out in the markets. Um uh taking kind of a breather right here in mid July up uh through the beginning of September or so. Um that’s just sort of the historical cycle of the market. But you know that is driven by real news. Um and the backdrop as I said um is positive on any number of fronts whether it’s tariffs or the stimulus of the big beautiful bill or earnings growth estimates starting to go up you know the consumer remaining strong etc etc so that could be an offset here and that’s that’s what you’re seeing but I think that’s what you’re seeing a it be a little bit muted um on the upside as well. Tom always great to see and to have you on the show. Thank you. Great. Thanks a lot. Turning now to other sectors of the market, we got meme stocks. They are running wild again. And here with more is Yahoo Finance’s Josh Schaefer. Josh. Hey Josh. Yeah. So, you know, I like to take some of these little pockets of the market that we’re watching and maybe related to a broader theme that we’ve been watching in the stock market, right? So, we’re taking a look right now. My board’s moving a little bit on me. I’m going to take a look at GoPro here, which took off this morning, of course, and then specifically Crispy Cream because this fits sort of what I’m watching a little bit more because Krispy K Cream is a heavily shorted stock. A lot of times when we talk about meme stocks, that’s what these investors that are out there on Wall Street Better, Wall Street Bets are looking for, right? A heavily shorted stock, a Crispy Cream, a Kohl’s, an Open Door Technologies from last week. And what I think is interesting here, Josh, is this has really been a theme of the market since the April low. So, what I first want to take a look at is simply how sort of offsides consensus was. What we’re looking at here is polymarket pricing of a recession versus the S&P 500. You and I have looked at this chart plenty over the last couple months. Of course, the key turning point is here, right? The market got up to a point of pricing in an over 50% near 60% chance of recession. That tanked the stock market, but what happened at that point is a lot of investors got out of the market. So JC Perez over at Trend Labs was pointing out essentially investors got off sides at this point. People were not ready for this rip higher that we saw in the stock market as data has come in better than expected as tariffs have been falling. And so what happened is you’ve seen a lot of short covering. It’s not just in meme stocks. Yes, meme stocks are certainly fun to talk about. It’s in the big stocks that we talk about all the time. So this is data that S S3 partners sent for me on short selling. How much shorts have lost. You’re looking at over 16 billion on Nvidia. Tesla’s your next one at 9 billion. Microsoft. So, a lot of those mag seven names. That was a key story of what brought the market back when you think back to April and May. Now, over the last month, that has continued to be a trend, right? You’ve seen uh data from Bespoke Investment Group pointing out that the Russell 100 or Russell 1000, the top 100 stocks shorted in that index. The most shorted stocks in that index are up over 50% over the last 3 months. They’ve outperformed the actual Russell 1000 by over 30 percentage points. So, a hot part of the market has simply been chasing where investors appear off sides right now as consensus has swung so quickly and moving to that trade. Liz Anne Saunders of Charles Schwab told us this morning she thinks that might be what’s going on with meme stocks. Investors and traders simply looking for another area where things are heavily shorted and putting the chase on because we are certainly in a bit of a riskon environment right now Josh with stocks at record time and Josh when you talk to the pros and then they look ahead do they expect uh continued shortside losses here? Yeah. So, Eeyore over at S3 Partners told me he thinks probably, right? He thinks if economic data were continue to surprise to the upside, if that growth story remains intact, if tariffs don’t completely derail the economy, he said there’s still plenty of short covering out there to be had. And that could continue to be a theme of this market. He said he normally says buyer beware when it comes to the stock market. He said right now the theme in the market is seller beware, Josh, because those short sellers over $350 billion loss for short sellers since April 8th. All right, let the seller beware. Yeah. All right, there we go. Thank you, Josh. Dave, want to also get you on this meme trade. You say the meme heat is back, but in certain pockets. Talk us through what what you’re seeing. Yeah, no, it’s interesting. The speculation that we’re seeing in the market is really in these pockets. And so we’re definitely having some uh behavior that feels a lot like 2021, right? So you’re, of course, back then it was GameStop and AMC, but now it seems as though the Wall Street Bets community, the Reddit community is is kind of picking out and identifying a combination of companies that are household names, right? So your Kohl’s, uh, Crispy Cream most recently, of course, the Open Door situation, and then coupled with that short interest. And then now because you have the ability for zero dated options, shortdated options um to to also play a role here. Um I think you can see just sort of that speculation run rampant in certain areas. So uh as uh my kind of advice to investors here is sort of you know if you’re a trader and want to be incredibly nimble like there could be opportunities for you to take advantage of this but they appear to be very very fleeting and they’re moving from name to name very quickly. Of course, we’ll see if this behavior um sticks around at all. Um but for now, this speculation, it’s definitely there, definitely here, maybe here to stay, but it’s in these kind of micro pockets of the stock market. So, it’s sort of silo, Dave, to your point. I I asked because I could see some people watching this, Dave, and they think, hold on, they see this hot talk again of meme stocks and and meme stocks mania, and they think, is that a is that a cause of any kind of broader concern? Does it point to some type of froth in the market? But it sounds like you don’t think so. Not really. I mean, look, we could argue that the stock market is overvalued, right? On some traditional measures, it certainly is. You could argue that a lot of areas of the market are are overvalued. But again, we’re, you know, it’s reporting today. Look at Alphabet, you know, it’s trading, it’s trading at, let’s call it again, around 20 times earnings. Not necessarily a sign of mass speculation. Even Meta, you know, 25 times earnings. So, it’s not as if we’re seeing sort of everything from your mega cap magnificent 7 down. uh actually um having incredibly high valuations. Look at the Russell 2000 broadly. Um you know, everyone was waiting for that kind of small cap trade has never materialized for any sort of longer time period. So until we were to see that sort of every area of the market uh kind of continue to push higher. It would kind of, you know, continues to give me some confidence that we’re not seeing speculation take over, but at the same time, it’s definitely happening in certain places. All right. All good points. Thank you, Dave. Coming up, it’s the latest edition of our series, Goodbye or Goodbye. We’re taking a deeper dive into two stocks to help you make the best moves for your portfolio. Stick around. Much more market domination that’s still to come. [Music] Welcome to Goodbye or Goodbye. Our goal here is to help cut through that noise to navigate the best moves for your portfolio. I’m here with Jensen Investment Management Management Managing Director and portfolio manager. That would be Allan Bond. Allan, it is good to see you. Let’s walk through some of the moves here, Alan. We’re going to start with one you like. Uh the buy here would be Striker. Now, this one is up about 10% year to date. Most analysts on the street still like this one. They think it’s a buy. I want to go through the reasons why you think it’s a buy. Start here. Benefits from higher HC utilization. Yeah, this is pretty straightforward for Striker. Striker is a leader in orthopedic implants and healthcare equipment. Uh so higher utilization of the healthare system system means more utilization of implants, more utilization of healthcare tools and benefit striker volume. So they are a beneficiary of higher healthcare utilization and that’s what we’re seeing right now. Uh another reason you were telling people this one’s a buy taking market share. Yeah. And this is really important for Striker. So the orthopedic implants implant space um traditionally share does not change very much. They’re in these are entrenched players. Striker is one of the big ones but Striker has been taking share. Uh and the reason they’ve been taking share is really twofold. One is technology leadership. Um Striker was first to market with a robot assisted surgery platform for orthopedic procedures and that’s allowed them to take share in otherwise areas where it’s difficult to take share. The other is execution. Um more and more procedures are being done outside of the hospital in what’s called ambulatory surgical centers. Striker’s execution in that space has been superior and it’s allowed them again to drive share, drive volumes. All right. Third reason you say it’s a buy. Pricing is improving. Yeah. Um pricing is improving. So So traditionally, uh orthopedic implants, there’s always a little bit of ongoing pricing pressure, but it’s improving for Striker for two reasons. Number one, um their business mix is sh changing. So they’re they’re they’ve diversified outside of just orthopedic implants where pricing is better. Secondly, because of the strength of that robotic platform, they can get better price on the orthopedic implants. So overall, we we’ve we’ve shifted to a story where we get volume and a little bit of price. All right. So you made a compelling case, Alan. The four viewers, they all pile in. Let’s talk about downside risk here to this day. What do you see? Yeah, so this you’ve got it here. Um this is a popular stock. Um a lot of what I’ve talked about has been going on for a long time. Striker’s been executing at a high level for a long time. So we think it’s sustainable. That’s why it’s a top holding for us. But the risk is if you have a shares that are trading at a bit of a premium and there’s a slip up, you can see a negative reaction. Um, again, we don’t we don’t expect that. We we we have confidence that can that they can continue to execute. All right, so that’s your buy. Let’s move on to a name you would avoid here, and that would be United Health. I want to go through these reasons. One reason you say to avoid, higher HC utilization hurts profit margins. Yeah. So, it’s it’s the inverse for United Health. So, United Health is a health insurance company and simply speaking, higher utilizations means higher costs, which means lower profit margins. They get to keep less of the premiums that they earn. And that’s been a big story. You showed the stock price graph of the stock declining. That’s one of the big reasons why we’ve seen a spike in utilization, spike in care costs, and therefore lower profitability for for United Health. All right. Second reason you would not commit capital. Reimbursement is under pressure. Yeah. So, so this this speaks to their business mis mix and and one of the things that’s great about United Health is they’re very diversified. U but they do serve um patients in Medicare and in Medicaid. Uh Medicare reimbursement’s been under pressure. They’ve changed some of the coding they do to reimburse. uh and Medicaid we’re expecting that as well. So reimbursement which essentially for price for them it’s kind of the inverse of striker again striker it’s improving for them uh it’s getting worse and the third and final reason you say this one is one to avoid high uncertainty. Yeah the the uncertainty right now uh is is really high with this one. Um there’s been a there is a abrupt management change at the senior level. Um they’ve withdraw their financial guidance for the year. All they’ve indicated is that the the first two items here that the the healthcare utilization trends keep getting worse. uh they’re going to report earnings here in a couple weeks and it’s going to be very interesting to see how this uh this updates as the year unfolds. Yeah, earnings call July 29th. What would be on the upside risk your call here? Um well the the we need to see stabilization, right? Again, they they pulled guidance which is very unusual for this company that this is a company that has that gives guidance early. It’s rock solid. They often increase it. So this was a big change for investors, but to the extent that they can reinstate it and create kind of a floor and expectations that’s credible, um that that would be probably the start of the way back for them and and the stock Allan has been shelled already. I mean it’s down I about 40% this year. But you obviously look at that and say listen that that actually is not still pricing in all the bad news. Bad news is priced in. Uh what’s really difficult right now is measuring that bad news because the the financial results have been or the financial guidance has been withdrawn and so now we’re left to speculate. We kind of know the trends. It’s a matter of like how how bad do those trends get before they get better. All right. So buy striker avoid United Health Allen. Thanks so much for your time today. Appreciate it. And thank you all for watching. Goodbye or goodbye. More market domination right on the other side. [Music] President Donald Trump announcing a trade deal with Japan on Tuesday which includes a 15% tariff on imported goods. And while markets jumped on the trade optimism, crypto markets, they’ve stalled here. John Woo, Ava Labs, president with me now to discuss what’s next for the industry. John, it’s good to see you. So, uh, you know, trade deals of course front and center today. Markets, I got green everywhere here, John, but Bitcoin is actually not taking part in the party. It’s actually edging lower here. I am curious though John to the you know the extent that looking ahead we get more clarity John more certainty around trade and tariffs how would you expect that to kind of ripple through and affect crypto in the months ahead absolutely it’s great to see you again Josh so um I’m actually out in the hants and there’s a company called the TAI which is a great data platform company in in crypto think of them as Bloomberg for crypto and they put together 300 executives and seuite people from crypto as well as traditional finance banks, uh, payment companies, fintech companies. So to answer your question, how do I feel about it? How do the people here feel about it? Well, they don’t obviously trade and tariffs very important, but I think there’s just a general enthusiasm and a positivity because the intersection between traditional enterprises and banks with that of crypto and web 3 is about to happen. That’s what the conversation is about. It’s far more about how this technology can help best parts of traditional finance than about tariffs. Right now, I look at Bitcoin here, John, at 118. I’ve had some bulls come on the show recently, and I asked them for targets for bogeies and and one well-known bull said, “Listen, he says 200,000 before year end.” Does that make sense to you, John? Absolutely. I think by the end of next year, we’ll have maybe even double close to 300,000. In fact, you know, it’s very simple. The right now it’s about 10% of the AUM of gold. And if you look at the incremental demand versus incremental supply, supply is the the the block being mined on the Bitcoin. And then you have the incremental demand which is all these ETF the digital asset trading companies and the reserves being built on public companies as well as nations as well as states. There’s a five to one imbalance of incremental demand versus supply. And then as a percentage of gold as a market cap, it’s only 10%. I don’t see why it can’t be 30% because the incremental buyer is Gen Z and millennials and they view this as the digital storage store of value as opposed to gold. So I can easily see much higher than 200,000 by the end of next year. So on that March, let’s say let’s say we put 300,000 on the board. John, what are some risks to that call? Yeah, absolutely. As you know, Josh, it’s a very volatile space. Um, you know, one of the things that has gotten everything going recently is the clarity from the Genius Act and that’s helped not just Bitcoin, but has also helped the alternative L1s like you know, Ethereum as well as Avalanche because a lot of stable coins on on that. Now the risk would be a lot of this now the clarity in the rules doesn’t lead to immediate success in operational and market share for payments and other reasons to use stable coins or to continue using these currencies. That would be a risk because to execute things it always takes longer than the initial thought of just creating a rule. It’s kind of like the risk would be it doesn’t pan out as quickly as people would hope it can. John, great to see you. Great to have you on the show. Thank you for your time today. Thank you, Josh. Now, time for some of today’s trending tickers. We’re keeping our eye on shares of Capital One Financial, Texas Instruments, and Otis. Starting off with Capital One Financial, which is reporting better than expect results for the company’s second quarter. Uh this one Q2 profit beats net interest income it looks like tops estimates did report a net loss the quarter that talking there about costs associated looks like with the discover deal which completed in May. Capital one of course targets those more uh relatively affluent customers like American Express stocks up around 25% now this year. Dave what do you make of it? Well I think it’s I think what we’re seeing is some positives here right? So the core business continues to be strong. Um then they have the the acquisition of disco D discover card making them sort of the largest card issue in the US. So a lot of momentum for this name. Um I think of course there’s questions about sort of what could happen if we have an economic slowdown but for the time being continues to take tick on. I want to turn to another one here. Texas Instruments also reporting second quarter results announcing a beat on earnings though disappointing investors and issuing the company’s third quarter outlook. Uh this one Dave’s interesting. So, the chipmaker uh worst stock decline I’m reading here in 17 years. Uh the Q3 forecast beat it looks like most estimates. I see the outlook was described as as more guarded than some maybe thought was coming. Yes, revenue climbed 16% last quarter. I think the question here uh for investors seems to be about how much of that we chalk up to to tariff fueled pullins. So, stock under pressure. What you make of the results, Dave? Yeah. Well, Texas Instruments is sort of a, you know, a have and have not story and unfortunately it’s in the have not side. Um, you know, its business is not really as exciting as sort of, you know, many other chip names that are out there. And so, for the time being, it continues to really be hit. But I think today’s sort of, uh, forecast really shows you just how hard companies that don’t provide sort of the proper level of guidance um, can really get destroyed in today’s market. Yeah, I see I see just a note here from Bernstein. Stacy Rasggon, friend of the show. He was telling his clients, we remain lukewarm on the analog space overall at the moment as our pull forward fears potentially, Stacy says here, manifest valuations remain elevated. He says lukewarm on TXN at large as well. It looks like Dr. Rasg maintained his target of 180 and also his market perform rating. So, he stays on the sidelines. Finally, want to end here on Otus Worldwide, which is seeing shares decline sharply over the company’s second quarter results. So, let’s take a look at this one as well, Dave. Um, Elevator Manufacturer did cut its forecast for fullear sales and free cash flow. Q2 sales, it looks like, missed consensus. Looks like that is due to decrease in new equipment sales in China and the Americas. I see JP Morgan analyst site is saying uh they did not expect the company to reduce operational guidance by this much. They added China remains stubbornly weak. Dave, your thoughts on this one? Yeah, it’s kind of bad all around the board here, right? So, new equipment sales were pretty rough. Um, obviously it it looked like it was a little bit better on sort of some of the servicing side. Um, but the challenge is China here. It has been. It continues to to be the case. And um, again, just like we saw with Texas Instruments, companies that are not sort of one uh providing sort of beating on the top line and bottom line and then providing positive guidance are getting hammered. Um and and this is an example of uh of it uh in a sector very different than Texas Instruments. All right, Dave, we are just a few minutes away now, my friend, from the latest earnings reports. Waiting for Tesla. We got Alphabet on deck. Any final thoughts before those results hit the wires, Dave? Yeah. Well, I think it’s interesting that both of these names are reporting on the same day. not that we should make that big of a deal about that, but they’re really the two names in the mega cap space in the Magnificent 7 space that um and maybe you could include Apple in this as well that haven’t really uh one articulated the AI story to the satisfaction of the investment community at large. Uh and then have had faced different levels of challenges. Of course, Tesla’s uh challenges can go on and on and some of that would just point to the CEO in that particular case and the situation that happened from moving from uh you know the first bro or best bro to you know seeing his way out the door and then in the case of Alphabet you know that’s a business that potentially either has the ability to be transformed by AI and the investments that they’re making or get eaten away from it. um you know as as was mentioned earlier in regards to this situation that’s happening with chat GBT and a lot of others coming for them. When you think Dave about these big tech names these mag seven names on deck which you know very well what would you say is at stake for investors with these reports with the mag seven results what’s on the line for investors? Yeah. Well, again, we know that their weight sort of in uh indices uh matters significantly, right? So, even if you don’t have an individual position in any of these names, you you own them if you’re invested in the market through the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, what have you. So, their results really matter. But I think this particular earning season is tremendously important for these companies because we are getting to the point with this AI buildout. The amount of capex that uh has been plowed into this space that is likely going to continue to be plowed into this space that was reiterated in the last earning season does need to start paying off with return on investment and then positive uh positive cash flow. Um so at some point investors do will begin to say hey enough is enough on that side. We haven’t seen that yet. So I think it’s a really pivotal earning se earning season that you know the impact of tariffs not that these companies are sort of at the forefront of that in in every in every case uh is is going to not hurt their momentum and then at the same time this AI buildout you know continues to to plug ahead. All right big reports hitting the wires momentarily. Meanwhile, let’s do a very quick check at the markets as we’re moments away here from the close. S&P 500 on track for another record. Got green everywhere. The Dow’s up about 500 points. Got the S&P 500 tacking on about 7/10 of a percent. Your tech having NASDAQ up about a half a percent. Trade deals front and center and fueling optimism. While we are wrapping up today’s market domination, don’t go anywhere. We’ve got you covered with all the action following the closing bell, including the latest earnings results from Tesla, Alphabet, many more. Stay tuned for market domination over time. [Music]

Market Domination Overtime anchor Josh Lipton breaks down the latest market news for July 23, 2025.
President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan, with the US and EU are reportedly nearing a trade deal.
Josh speaks with one portfolio manager about how the trade deals will impact markets and businesses.
Tesla and Alphabet kick off Big Tech earnings. Dominic Rizzo, T. Rowe Price, Portfolio Manager, Global Technology Fund, explains why he believes Big Tech is a tale of two cities. Rizzo says AI is ‘really strong,’ but everything else has had ‘tepid growth.’
For more videos of Market Domination Overtime, please visit:
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