ブラックロックCEO「ラリー・フィンク氏が見る未来」【WBSインタビュー未公開版】#WBS

ブラックロックCEO「ラリー・フィンク氏が見る未来」【WBSインタビュー未公開版】#WBS

Fore speech. So there is growing there’s a significant concern of the Trump tariff might accelerate the inflation in US and also it had a negative impact of US economy but on the other side there the situation might not be as pessimistic. Which view do you support? I think a little of both. I think the US economy was in a very strong position in December and in December everyone was talking about US exceptionalism and now today people are saying well maybe that’s not the case. No the fundamentals of the US economy are just as strong today as they were six seven months ago. That being said the introduction of tariffs creates huge uncertainty as you framed your question. Um by definition if the tariffs are passed on in a form of rising prices that is inflationary and so it takes times to implement the price increases because of the tariffs. In some cases the manufacturer will absorb some of the costs. In some cases the um the the US-based firm that is selling the products may absorb some of that in the form of reduced margins and at the same time I would say the majority of the price increases due to tariffs will be passed on. I read today one of the major uh toy companies announced that they’re going to have to be raising prices of toys because so many of the toys are manufactured in in in um China. Many of the auto company CEOs have identified that they’re holding back some of the tariff increases um until the new model year. The new model year generally is introduced in September or October. And so we’re going to start seeing more elevated uh price increases. That is my view and I said that for the last few months. I’ve told that to the administration. I think another burden is the um the deportations. Um the deportations uh are creating uh job shortages in some industries, agriculture and hotels um in construction. Uh when you have job shortages, you have to elevate uh wages. Elevating wages is inflationary. So all this is going to take time to u to funnel through the the economy. So I I still have a view that we’re going to have elevated inflation. I still have a view that um that though the fundamental strength of the economy is still there. I mean even today as an indication of the strength of US companies just today Nvidia’s stock price hit a $4 trillion market level and that is just the strength of US innovation and I believe US innovation is as strong today if not stronger today than it was in in December. So what I’m trying to say is yes, we’re seeing these mixed indicators and these mixed indicators are creating uncertainty, but I think there is a reason why the US equity markets at at an all-time high because the fundamental strength of US corporations, the innovation, if you think about the US versus Japan or the US versus Europe because of the strength of the US capital markets, If you were a smart entrepreneur, you have access to capital. If you’re a small and medium uh bank, you could go to the banking system or you could go to the capital markets. So the access to capital has created this dynism that no other economy has and in fact as I travel around the world even my conversations here in Japan. How can we elevate the capital markets here in Japan and you know and I think Japan is moving that way with the doubling the size of the tax exemption for Nissa. So I I I think we’re not going to know the total to direct trajectory of the US economy, but I would say we have these giant mixed signals. We have the introduction of tariffs which are inflationary. We have the uncertainty of how this is all going to you know manifest itself. Uncertainty generally when you have that some consumers pull back consumption. So we’re seeing a moderating of the US economy. Even the first quarter the it was much less robust than it was in the fourth quarter and and so um you know we we are going to have mixed signals uh and we probably are going to have higher interest rates. So under that kind of situation how this situation affect the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy? Do you believe it would be appropriate for Federal Reserve to decrease interest rate within this year? I think the the the chairman of the Federal Reserve has identified that until there’s more certainty related to the impact in tariffs, he’s going to be paying attention to the data. And if the data suggests that inflation is going to be rising or is rising, he’s going to be delaying any form of reduction in interest rates. If if there is not that increase in inflation and I’m wrong in that view, then he’s going to start lowering interest rates because we are seeing that moderation of the economy. The the responsibility of the Federal Reserve is is is twofold is it is inflation and it is the quality of the economy and they have to navigate around that. And I don’t believe at this moment there’s enough evidence to suggest a easing of monetary policy. So let’s talk about the bond market. So so we are seeing the mixed signals from the market but on the other hand the bond investors are being becoming more cautious and actually increase. What is especially the longerterm US Treasury bills and the JGB bills? What is happening on the global bond market right now?

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