Japan PM Vows To Stay On; EU Prepares US Tariff Retaliation | Daybreak Europe 7/21/2025

Japan PM Vows To Stay On; EU Prepares US Tariff Retaliation | Daybreak Europe 7/21/2025

JOUMANNA: GOOD MORNING.
I AM JOUMANNA BERCETCHE AND THESE ARE THE STORIES THAT SET
YOUR AGENDA. DEFIANCE AND DEFEAT, JAPAN’S
PRIME MINISTER OF VALVES TO STAY ON AFTER HIS COALITION
LOSES ITS UPPER HOUSE MAJORITY. THE FIRST TIME IT HAS FAILED TO
CONTROL YOU THE HOUSE SINCE 1955.
THE YEN GAINS AFTER TWO WEEKS OF LOSSES. FIGHTING BACK, E.U.
ARE SET TO MEET TO PREPARE A TARIFF RETALIATION PLAN AS THE
U.S. CONTINUES TO HARDEN ITS STANCE.
PLUS A BIG WEEK FOR EUROPEAN EARNINGS.
SOME OF THE REGION’S BIGGEST BANKS SET TO REPORT BUT FIRST,
RYANAIR RESULTS CROSSING THE TERMINAL. OK.
SO WELCOME TO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, EVERYBODY.
WE ARE JUST GETTING SOME EARNINGS COME THROUGH FROM
RYANAIR RIGHT AT THE TOP OF THE SHOW.
LET ME BRING YOU SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS.
FIRST QUARTER PROFIT AFTER TAX COMING IN AT 820 2 MILLION
EUROS. THE ESTIMATE WAS 687.6 MILLION
SO A BEAT THERE. AS FAR AS CUSTOMERS, FOR YOUR
CUSTOMERS COMING IN AT TWO HUNDRED 6 MILLION, IT WAS 206.4
3 MILLION SO IN LINE AS WELL. OTHER COMMENTARY, WE ARE YET TO
GET THE FIRST QUARTER REVENUE THAT IS ALSO COME THROUGH AT
4.34 BILLION EUROS. AGAIN, IT BEATS A TOP LINE
VERSUS THE ESTIMATES OF 4.23 SO WE ARE GETTING A BEAT BOTH ON
THE BOTTOM LINE AND ON THE TOP LINE AS WELL. CUSTOMERS, 57.9 BILLION VERSUS
ESTIMATES OF 58 MILLION, IN LINE WITH ESTIMATES.
THE LOAD FACTOR COMING IN AT 94% VERSUS THE ESTIMATE OF
93.2% SO WE ARE GOING TO BE SPEAKING TO THE CFO SHORTLY BUT
ON FIRST GLANCE, IT BEATS THE TOPLINE AND BOTTOM-LINE FROM
RYANAIR. LET’S BROADEN OUT AND TAKE A
LOOK AT HOW THE MARKETS ARE FARING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EARNINGS WEEK AS WE JUST SPOKE ABOUT WITH THE AIRLINES
EARNINGS LATER THIS WEEK IN EUROPE.
A BUNCH OF EUROPEAN BANKS WILL BE REPORTING AS WELL IN
ADDITION TO THE ECB MEETINGS SO EUROPEAN MARKETS TODAY LEANING
TOWARDS A NEGATIVE OPEN, DOWN .2% AND KEEP AN EYE AS WELL ON
THOSE TARIFF DISCUSSIONS AS WE GET TOWARDS THE YOUNGEST FIRST
DEADLINE AND HOW THE E.U. MAY RESPOND TO PREPARE A LIST
OF COUNTERMEASURES. FTSE 100 TRADING BASICALLY
FLATTISH, BASICALLY TOWARDS THE RED BUT WALL STREET INDICES
POINTED TO OPEN UP IN THE GREEN, UP 50 BASIS POINTS.
20 BASIS POINTS RESPECTIVELY AND ANOTHER BIG WEEK OF
EARNINGS FROM THE TECH SIDE OF THINGS WITH NAMES LIKE AMAZON,
META, APPLE, ALL REPORTING THIS WEEK AS WELL.
TAKE A LOOK ACROSS ASSETS. THERE IS ONE CURRENCY PAIR THAT
HAS BEEN ON EVERYONE’S MIND AND THAT IS DOLLAR-YEN AFTER THE
RESULTS OF THE UPPER HOUSE ELECTIONS IN JAPAN SHOWING LDP
LOST A MAJORITY SO THIS IS THE REACTION.
THE YEN IS STRENGTHENING VERSUS THE U.S.
THE WE’LL TALK MORE ABOUT THAT ON THE SHOW AS WE SPEAK ABOUT
YEN WEAKNESS. THE EURO TRADING SIDEWAYS TODAY.
ECB IS GOING TO BE THE FOCUS. NO RATE CUT EXPECTED BUT OF
COURSE, THE LANGUAGE AND COMMENTARY AROUND THE ECONOMY
WILL BE PARSED FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON INTEREST RATE CLOSE.
BRENT SITTING AT 69 DOLLARS, SLIGHTLY FIRMER, AND GOLD ALSO
A TAD FIRM AS WELL, UP .2%. LET’S SEE HOW ASIAN MARKETS ARE
FARING WITH A ROUHANI IN SINGAPORE. I AM SURE JAPAN IS ON
EVERYONE’S MIND BUT IT IS A NATIONAL HOLIDAY IN JAPAN TODAY.
AVRIL: YOU HAVE STOCK AND BOND MARKETS
THERE. EDGING A BIT HIGHER IN CHINA
BUT THE SPOTLIGHT AS YOU SAY IS ON JAPAN.
SOMEHOW, WE HAVE COME AWAY FROM ELECTION WEEKEND WITH THIS
LINGERING POLITICAL AND TRADE TALK UNCERTAINTY SO FUTURES ARE
PARING THE DECLINES FOR EARLIER ON NIKKEI, SITTING QUITE FLAT
NOW. THE MARKET IS ONE THAT HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING FOR MOMENTUM FOR MUCH OF THIS MONTH AND THAT IS
WORTH NOTING AND THERE ARE SOME THAT ALSO POINT OUT THAT
DOMESTIC RELATED STOCKS, AND DOMESTIC ORIENTED STOCKS COULD
SEE SUPPORT IF THE OPPOSITION LAWMAKERS CALLS FOR TAX CUTS
AND GAIN FURTHER TRACTION. ASIDE FROM THAT, LET’S TAKE A
LOOK AT THE JAPANESE CURRENCY AS WELL TODAY, EDGING HIGHER,
HITTING AS HIGH AS 147.8 AGAINST THE GREENBACK AND OF
COURSE, THIS IS AFTER A COUPLE OF WEEKS OF MOVING LOWER AS THE
CONCERN ABOUT MORE GOVERNMENT SPENDING OR A TAX CUT TO COME
AND ADD TO THAT HOW OVERALL, THERE IS A BEARISH VIEW THAT
HAS EMERGED ON THE JAPANESE CURRENCY SO WHATEVER GAINS YOU
ARE SEEING FOR NOW MIGHT BE QUITE SHORT-LIVED ESPECIALLY
GIVEN HOW THE ELECTION RESULT MIGHT JUST MEAN THAT IT IS EVEN
TRICKIER FOR THE BOJ TO GIVE ANY SORT OF TIMELINE FOR THE
NEXT RATE HIKE. JOUMANNA: OK. THANK YOU SO MUCH.
FOR THE LATEST THERE AND SPEAKING OF JAPAN, WE ARE JUST
GETTING SOME LINES COMING THROUGH FROM THE PRIME MINISTER.
REMEMBER, THERE IS A LOT OF PRESSURE ON HIM AFTER THE
DEFEAT OF THE WEEKEND, QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER HE WILL
STAY ON IN THE JOB BUT HE IS SPEAKING NOW AND TALKING ABOUT
THE UPPER HOUSE ELECTION RESULTS, SAYING HE APOLOGIZES
DEEPLY FOR THE RESULTS. JAPAN STILL FACES DIFFICULTIES
LIKE TRADE TALKS. THESE ARE LIFE PICTURES OF HIM
SPEAKING AFTER THESE ELECTION RESULTS THAT WERE A
DISAPPOINTMENT FOR LDP AND HE IS SPEAKING IN JAPANESE SO JUST
TO BRING YOU SOME OF THE LOOSE TRANSLATIONS HERE, HE IS SAYING
THEY MUST NOT ALLOW FOR STAGNATION IN DOMESTIC POLITICS.
THEY MUST STILL FULFILL DUTY AS THE BIGGEST PARTY IN THE
PARLIAMENT AND HE IS REFERRING OF TO LDP AND THE FACT THAT
EVEN THOUGH THEY FACED DEFEAT OVER THE PAST WEEKEND, THEY
STILL CONSTITUTE THE BIGGEST PARTY IN PARLIAMENT WHICH GIVES
THEM THE MANDATE TO STAY ON AS PRIME MINISTER AND HE IS
CONFIRMING THAT THE COALITION IS SET TO CONTINUE.
THEY WILL LOOK TO SEE COMMON GROUND WITH PARTIES AND OF
COURSE THAT IS SIGNIFICANT AS WELL BECAUSE NOW, THEY NO
LONGER HAVE A COMMANDING MAJORITY.
THEY WILL NEED TO SHORE UP SUPPORT FROM OTHER PARTIES
WITHIN PARLIAMENT SO THIS IS PERHAPS LOOKING TO EXTEND AN
OLIVE BRANCH AND THEN HE’S ALSO TALKING ABOUT THE TRADE TALKS
WITH THE U.S. AND THAT IS A BIG FOCUS FOR
COUNTRIES ALL AROUND THE WORLD, NOT JUST JAPAN, AS WE GET
CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE AUGUST 1 TARIFF DEADLINE.
HE IS SAYING WE MUST PROTECT JAPAN’S INTEREST IN THE TRADE
TALKS WITH THE U.S. AND THEN HE ADDS HE IS HOPING
TO SPEAK WITH TRUMP DIRECTLY SOON.
SO LET’S SEE IF THAT PHONE CALL BETWEEN THE TWO LEADERS
ACTUALLY DOES TRANSPIRE. YOU HAVE TO THINK ALSO FROM
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S PERSPECTIVE, HE HAS MANY PEOPLE AROUND THE
WORLD WHO ARE WANTING TO REACH OUT TO HIM BEFORE THE AUGUST 1
DEADLINE BUT THIS IS THE JAPANESE FROM MINISTER
DELIVERING REMARKS NOW AFTER THAT QUITE SUBSTANTIAL DEFEAT
FOR THE LEADING PARTY, LDP, IN THE UPPER HOUSE ELECTIONS AND
HE IS APOLOGIZING, SO SOME QUITE BIG TAKEAWAY’S THERE.
WITH THAT, LET’S MAYBE JUST RECAP SOME OF THE HEADLINES
FROM THE WEEKEND AND THE FACT THAT ISHIBA DID ACTUALLY VOWED
TO STAY ON. LET’S GET MORE FROM ALICE
FRENCH IN TOKYO. BRINGING IN SOME OF THESE LINES
HERE, I WOULD SAY THAT THE MAIN THING THAT STOOD OUT TO ME IS
THE FACT THAT HE HAS APOLOGIZED FOR THESE ELECTION RESULTS BUT
IS GOING TO STAY ON AND HAS TALKED ABOUT MAY BE REACHING OUT TO OTHER PARTIES TO GET —
WELL, TO SEEK COMMON GROUND IS THE LANGUAGE HE WAS TALKING
ABOUT. WHAT DOES THAT NECESSARILY MEAN
FOR FISCAL POLICY? >> YES, SO I MEAN, LOOK, I
THINK THIS OUTCOME REALLY WAS EXPECTED BY A LOT OF MARKET
PLAYERS THIS MORNING. IT WAS NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE
LDP GOING INTO THIS ELECTION AND LIKE YOU SAY, FISCAL POLICY
HAS BEEN A MASSIVE FOCUS. WE SAW JGB YIELDS UP AT
HISTORIC HIGHS LAST WEEK ON WORRIES THAT, YOU KNOW, IF THE LDP AND ISHIBA IS WEAKENED —
WHICH OBVIOUSLY RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT HOW THOSE ARE GOING TO BE
FUNDED. YOU KNOW, GOVERNMENT BONDS HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN THE FOCUS BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT THE BOJ IS
SCALING BACK ITS PURCHASES SO I THINK REALLY HOW ISHIBA MOVES
FORWARD WITH THOSE FISCAL POLICIES WILL BE A HUGE FOCUS
OF THE MARKET GOING FORWARD SEND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE HOW, YOU KNOW, THE OPPOSITION KIND OF ORGANIZES
ITSELF GOING FORWARD IN WHICH PARTIES WE SEE COMING TO THE
ISHIBA FOR AND WHICH POLICIES ENDS UP HAVING TO MAKE
CONCESSIONS TO JUST IN ORDER TO KEEP HIS JOB. JOUMANNA:
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE BANK OF JAPAN MONETARY POLICY?
WE SPEAK ABOUT THE BACKDROP OF THE WEAKENING YEN BUT THE
EXPECTATION WAS AT THE BANK OF JAPAN WOULD HAVE TO CONTINUE
WITH THE HIKING CYCLE. MIGHT THE POLITICAL BACKDROP
INFLUENCE THE BANK OF JAPAN IN THE COMING MONTHS? ALICE:
I THINK SO, YES. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
BOJ DOESN’T REALLY HAVE MANY OPTIONS APART FROM TO PUSH
FORWARD WITH ITS RATE HIKES, BUT HAVING SAID THAT, NOW THAT
WE HAVE THIS SORT OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY, IT HAS BEEN MANY
DECADES SINCE JAPAN HAS SEEN SUCH WEAK GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP
THAT THE BOJ MAY HAVE TO PUT THE BRAKES ON SOME OF THOSE
FUTURE RATE HIKES. SOME PEOPLE I HAVE BEEN
SPEAKING TO THIS MORNING SAYING THAT THEY HAD BEEN EXPECTING AT
LEAST ONE RATE HIKE BY THE END OF 2025 AND NOW, IT IS LOOKING
LIKE THERE MIGHT BE NONE. YOU KNOW, IF DOWN THE LINE,
ISHIBA DOES END UP HAVING TO STEP DOWN AS PRIME MINISTER,
ONE OF THE MOST POPULAR ALTERNATIVE TO HIM IS ANTI-BOJ
RATE HIKES. SHE IS INTO EASING POLICY.
I WOULD SAY THE OUTLOOK FOR THOSE RATE HIKES HAS REALLY GOT
A LOT MORE SHAKY AND OF COURSE THAT IS GOING TO IMPACT AGAIN
AND THAT IS GOING TO IMPACT GOVERNMENT BONDS AND IT’S GOING
TO HAVE KNOCK ON EFFECTS FOR STOCKS, TOO.
SO THE OUTLOOK IS DEFINITELY LOOKING SHAKIER THAN IT WAS
BEFORE. JOUMANNA: EVEN THOUGH TODAY, THE YEN IS
RECUPERATING JUST A LITTLE BIT OF THE LOSSES VERSUS THE USD,
STILL ON TRACK FOR A LOT WEAKER YEN VERSUS THE DOLLAR OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. BLOOMBERG’S JAPAN STOCKS
REPORTER, ALICE FRENCH, THANK YOU SO MUCH.
AT THE TOP OF THIS SHOW, WE BROKE RYAN AIR AS — AS A
RECAP, WE GOT A BEAT ON THE PROFIT AFTER TAX.
820 MILLION VERSUS ESTIMATES OF 687.6 MILLION, ALSO ON REVENUE,
A TOPLINE BEAT, 4.34 BILLION EUROS VERSUS ESTIMATES OF 4.2
BILLION. I’M HAPPY TO SAY RYANAIR’S CFO
JOINS US NOW. LET’S — TALK US THROUGH THE Q1
EARNINGS. THE RESULTS SEEM TO BE QUITE
SOLID BOTH ON TOP AND BOTTOM LINE.
WHAT DROVE THE PERFORMANCE? NEIL:
A SOLID SET OF RESULTS AND I AM PLEASED TO BE HERE TO DELIVER
THEM THIS MORNING. TRAFFIC AS EXPECTED WAS JUST
UNDER 68 MILLION PASSENGERS SO THAT WAS A 4% INCREASE.
WE SAW A FAIR RECOVERY INTO THE CORRIDOR AND WE HAD THE BENEFIT
OF A DOUBLE EASTERN. AND THEN — WITH THE OTA
DISPUTE LAST YEAR WHICH IS NOW RESOLVED, CLOSE IN BOOKINGS
INTO MAY AND JUNE WHICH HAVE BEEN BETTER THAN WE WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED SO FARES WERE UP 21% IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE
YEAR. I AM VERY PLEASED THE CFO, WITH
THE PERFORMANCE ON COSTS WHERE WE SAW COSTS INCREASED BY JUST
1% ON A PER PASSENGER BASIS, UP 5% IN AN ABSOLUTE BASIS AND
THIS WAS DOWN TO OUR STRONG HEDGING OFFSETTING VERY HIGH
INCREASES IN AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL CHARGES DESPITE THE
FACT THAT IT’S LOUSY WITH INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS
SO IT’S A COMBINATION OF MODEST GROWTH, FAIR RECOVERY, AND
STRONG COST CONTROL IN THE BUSINESS. JOUMANNA:
NICE OVERVIEW. I WANT TO BRING UP SOMETHING
YOU DID MENTION. THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL.
EASYJET LAST WEEK RECORDED A 15 MILLION POUND HIT ON BACK OF
THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL ISSUES, THE DISRUPTION THAT TOOK PLACE
THERE. HOW MUCH OF A HIT DID RYANAIR
TAKE AND HOW MUCH PROGRESS HAVE YOU MADE IN TERMS OF SORTING
OUT THE LONG-STANDING ISSUES? NEIL:
WELL, WE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SORT OUT THOSE LONG-STANDING
ISSUES FOR MANY YEARS AND UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL BE DOING IT FOR A BIT MORE TO COME.
WE YET AGAIN HAVE CALLED ON URSULA VON DER LEYEN IN FOR ALL
OF THESE ISSUES THAT WE ARE HAVING.
THEY NOW ACCOUNT FOR OVER 40% OF DISRUPTIONS IN EUROPE.
WE WOULD HAVE CANCELED OVER 500 FLIGHTS OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS
IN EARLY JULY. 30,000 PASSENGERS DISRUPTED
LAST WEEK AS A RESULT OF ATC ISSUES ACROSS EUROPE BUT
PRIMARILY IN FRANCE, WHERE THEY UNFORTUNATELY DO NOT PROTECT
THE OVERFLIGHT SO EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE NOT LANDING IN AND OUT
OF FRANCE, YOU ARE DISRUPTED BECAUSE THE AIRSPACE ABOVE
FRANCE IS TAKEN OUT OF COMMISSION BY THE AIR TRAFFIC
CONTROLLERS SO THIS HAS A MASSIVE IMPACT ON THE TRAVELING
PUBLIC. WE LEFT ABOUT 100,000 PASSENGERS AS A RESULT OF THAT
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO CAMPAIGN HARD.
YOU SAW IN THE FIRST QUARTER, 16% INCREASE IN AIR TRAFFIC
CONTROL CHARGES YET THE SERVICE COULD NOT BE WORSE. JOUMANNA:
WELL, LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT LOOKING AHEAD AS SUMMER DEMAND.
HOW ARE THINGS LOOKING AT THIS POINT? HOW ARE YOU EXPECTING THE
SUMMER TO PLAY OUT? NEIL: DEMAND IS STRONG.
PEOPLE ARE KEEN TO GET OUT AND ABOUT AND TRAVEL.
WE HAVE 200 SICK — INCLUDING 160 NEW ROUTES THIS SUMMER.
ALL OF THOSE ARE BOOKING VERY STRONGLY.
FARES ARE RECOVERING NICELY. WE WOULD EXPECT TO RECOVER
ALMOST ALL OF THE FAIR DECLINE WE HAD IN THE SECOND QUARTER
LAST YEAR. SO YOU KNOW, WE ARE SEEING NO
SOFTNESS IN PEOPLE WHO WANT TO TRAVEL.
WE HAVE LIMITED GROWTH THIS YEAR AND WE ARE ONLY GROWING BY
3%. IT IS 206 MILLION PASSENGERS BUT DEMAND IS EXCEPTIONALLY
HIGH AND WE HAVE NO QUALMS ABOUT HITTING THAT TARGET THIS
YEAR. AIRPORT IS VERY KEEN TO GET
RYANAIR GROWTH SO WE ARE ACCOMMODATING REGIONS AND
AIRPORTS WHERE THEY ARE PULLING BACK ON THE MUNICIPAL AVIATION
TAXES AND STIMULATING GROWTH AND CUSTOMERS TRAVELING IN BIG
NUMBERS. JOUMANNA: HOW CLOSELY ARE YOU WATCHING
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE TARIFF DISCUSSIONS? E.U.
THIS WEEK PLANNING TO PUT TOGETHER RETALIATORY TARIFFS.
BOEING AIRCRAFT COULD BE INCLUDED IN THAT.
HOW WOULD IT AFFECT YOUR BUSINESS AND HAVE YOU DONE ANY
SCENARIO PLANNING? NEIL: IT’S ALL VERY HIGH POTENTIAL AT
THE MOMENT AND WE ALL HOPE THAT WE WILL SEE THE 1979 CIVIL
AVIATION EXEMPTION FROM TARIFFS WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A
VERY GOOD REASON AND THAT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PUT TARIFFS
ON THE VARIOUS PARTS AND COME FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD TO
ASSEMBLE AN AIRCRAFT IN PARTS. WE TOOK SOME COMFORT FROM THE
TRANSPORT SECRETARY DUFFY’S COMMENTS WHEN HE WAS AT THE
PARIS AIR SHOW THAT HE WOULD LIKE TO STICK WITH SOMETHING
LIKE THE 1979 EXEMPTION SO YOU KNOW, WE ARE ALL WORKING
TOWARDS REMAINING AS IS. NOBODY KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN AUGUST 1. WILL THERE BE A DEAL DONE?
I DON’T KNOW. I HOPE SO. IF THERE ISN’T, WILL EUROPE
RETALIATE? THEY PROBABLY WILL. WE ARE VERY CLEAR THAT WE HAVE
A FIXED PRICE WITH BOEING. WE EXPECT THEM TO DELIVER THE
AIRCRAFT AT THAT FIXED PRICE. IF THERE ARE TARIFFS, IT WILL BE ON BOEING’S ACCOUNT, NOT
RYANAIR’S ALTHOUGH WE WILL WORK WITH THEM. WE REMAIN HOPEFUL ABOUT THE
EXEMPTION FOR AIRCRAFT PARTS, SIMULATORS, ENGINES, ETC.
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE. >> YES, I ALSO JUST WANT TO
REFER YOU BACK TO SOME OF THE COMMENTS THE CEO MADE BACK IN
MAY WHICH IS IF THESE TARIFFS TO COME TO PASS, THEN YOU WOULD
HAVE TO REEVALUATE SOME OF YOUR ORDERS AND PERHAPS THINK OF
SOURCING AIRCRAFT FROM OTHER SUPPLIERS AND MAYBE EVEN
CHINESE SUPPLIERS. IS THAT STILL ON THE TABLE?
NEIL: I HAVE MET THOSE CHINESE SUPPLIERS A COUPLE OF TIMES.
WE HAVE RELATIONSHIPS WITH THEM AND WITH AIRBUS.
THE REALITY IS THAT AIRBUS SUPPLIERS, BOEING, AIRBUS, ALL
OF THEIR ORDER BOOKS ARE FULL THIS SIDE OF THE MIDDLE OF THE
20 30’S SO THE DIFFICULTY IN GETTING AIRCRAFT IN THE SHORT
TERM IS VERY HIGH. WE DO HAVE AN ORDER BOOK WITH
BOEING. THEY ARE PERFORMING VERY WELL.
THE PRODUCTION IS AHEAD SO WE WOULD BE HOPEFUL THAT, YOU
KNOW, SCIENCE PREVAILS AND THE TARIFFS DON’T COME TO PASS.
WE DON’T NEED TO 29 REMAINING AIRCRAFT IN OUR ORDER BOOK
UNTIL THE SUMMER OF NEXT YEAR SO YOU KNOW, IF THERE IS AN
ISSUE, WE MAY END UP NOT TAKING THOSE AIRCRAFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME. YOU KNOW, UNTIL THINGS SETTLE
DOWN BUT AS I SAID, WE EXPECT BOEING TO STEP UP TO THE PLATE
TO THE EXTENT THAT THERE ARE TARIFFS AND WE WILL WORK WITH
THEM TO MITIGATE THE COST OF THEM AS BEST WE CAN. JOUMANNA: GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING DAYBREAK TODAY.
THE CFO OF RYANAIR, APPRECIATE IT.
COMING UP, EUROPEAN UNION TRADE AND BOYS ARE SET TO MEET TO
FORMULATE A RESPONSE TO A POSSIBLE NO DEAL WITH THE
UNITED STATES. WE WILL HAVE MORE ON THAT, NEXT.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ JOUMANNA:
WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE.
EUROPEAN UNION ENVOYS ARE SET TO MEET TO FORMULATE A PLAN FOR
MEASURES TO RESPOND TO A POSSIBLE NO-DEAL SCENARIO WITH
U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP. THE U.S.
IS NOW SEEN TO WANT A NEAR UNIVERSAL TARIFF HIGHER THAN
10% BY U.S. COMMERCE SECRETARY HOWARD
LUTNICK SAYS HE BELIEVES A DEAL WITH EUROPE IS WITHIN REACH. >> I AM CONFIDENT WE WILL GET A
DEAL DONE, OK? AND IT WILL BE GREAT FOR
AMERICA BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT HAS THE BACK OF AMERICA SO I
THINK ALL THESE KEY COUNTRIES WILL FIGURE OUT IT IS BETTER TO
OPEN THEIR MARKETS TO THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA THAN
TO PAY A SIGNIFICANT TARIFFS. — A SIGNIFICANT TARIFF.
JOUMANNA: HOWARD LUTNICK SOUNDS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF REACHING A DEAL BUT OF COURSE THE E.U.
ARE PLANNING TO RETALIATE SOMEHOW.
DO WE KNOW WHAT THEY ARE THINKING, WHAT IS ON THE LIST
OF POTENTIAL COUNTERMEASURES? >> TO BE CLEAR, WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT CONTINGENCIES HERE AND ARE REPORTING SHOWS THAT THEY
ARE FOCUSED ON TRYING TO HAMMER OUT A DEAL WITH THE ONGOING
TALKS WITH ALMOST TWO WEEKS LEFT TO GO.
AT THE SAME TIME, WE ARE HEARING THEY SEE A STIFFENING
IN THE U.S. POSITION SO THEY ARE PREPARING
SOME POTENTIAL RESPONSES TO THOSE STEPS. THE FIRST STEP WOULD BE AN
APPROVAL RATING PACKAGE THAT WOULD COVER ABOUT $21 BILLION
WORTH OF AMERICAN PRODUCTS AND THESE ARE VERY STRATEGIC, VERY
MUCH AIMED AT POLITICAL PAIN POINTS IN THE U.S.
SYSTEM SO THESE WOULD TARGET THINGS LIKE SOYBEANS FROM
LOUISIANA, SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON’S HOME STATE, POULTRY,
MOTORCYCLES, AND THEN THERE IS A LIST THAT WE KNOW THE E.U.
HAS DRAWN UP ALREADY. THIS WOULD COVER BOEING PLANES
AS WE HAVE HEARD IN THE PREVIOUS SEGMENT, U.S.-MADE
CARS. THESE WOULD COVER BOURBON WHISKEY AS WELL AND THEN WE ARE
HEARING THAT THERE IS A GROUP OF COUNTRIES THAT IS ALREADY
PUSHING FOR PREPARING A POTENTIAL NEXT STEP, PUSHING
EVERYTHING TO A HIGHER LEVEL AND THIS WOULD ENCOMPASS THINGS
LIKE NEW TAXES ON U.S. TECH GIANTS OR POTENTIALLY
RESTRICTING U.S. INVESTMENTS OR BORROWING THEM
FROM PARTICIPATING IN PROCUREMENT PROJECTS SO THAT IS
KIND OF THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF THE POTENTIAL RESPONSES.
JOUMANNA: DIGITAL SERVICES, DEFINITELY
THE MOST ONEROUS ONE. IF THEY GO DOWN THAT ROAD.
BUT TRUMP AND XI JINPING ARE SET TO MEET A HEAD OF OUR
DURING THE APEC SUMMIT. WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THAT?
THAT WOULD BE A MAJOR MEETING. BALAZS:
THAT CERTAINLY SOUNDS LIKE THAT RELATIONSHIP IS GOING A
DIFFERENT WAY. A FEW MONTHS AGO, IT SEEMS LIKE
THAT RELATIONSHIP WAS COMPLETELY BROKEN.
THEY WERE TRADING ALL SORTS OF MISSIVES AND VERBAL THREATS
AGAINST EACH OTHER AND NOW IN THE LAST MONTH, PRESIDENT XI
INVITED PRESIDENT TRUMP TO VISIT CHINA.
WE KNOW THAT TRUMP HAS BEEN SEEKING THIS MEETING ALL YEAR
SO IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY EARLY THIS FALL. THERE IS AN APEC SUMMIT IN
KOREA IN EARLY NOVEMBER AND WHAT WE ARE HEARING IS THAT
THERE IS SOME MOVEMENT IN POTENTIALLY PULLING TOGETHER A
MEETING OF THE TWO HEADS OF STATE JUST BEFORE THAT AND THEY
HAVE PLENTY TO TALK ABOUT OF COURSE FROM TRADE TO THE STATUS
OF TAIWAN TO TECH TRANSFERS. CERTAINLY, THAT WOULD BE A HUGE
HIGH POINT OF THE DIPLOMATIC AGENDA OF THIS YEAR. JOUMANNA:
LET’S SEE IF IT DOES HAPPEN. IF IT DOES, IT WOULD BE AROUND
OCTOBER. BLOOMBERG’S A SENIOR EDITOR,
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE OVERVIEW.
COMING, RUSSIA LAUNCHES A MASSIVE AIR ATTACK ON UKRAINE
JUST HOURS AFTER PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY PROPOSED TALKS WITH
MOSCOW. MORE DETAILS, NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ ♪ >> WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG
DAYBREAK: EUROPE. WASHINGTON POST IS REPORTING A
CHINESE-AMERICAN AND EXPLOSIONS HAVE BEEN HEARD
ACROSS THE COUNTRY OF UKRAINE. UKRAINE PROPOSED A MEETING WITH
RUSSIA THIS MONTH. GERMANY AND THE U.K.
PUSH FOR A 50 DAY DRIVE TO BRING VLADIMIR PUTIN BACK TO
NEGOTIATE. THE U.K. DEFENSE SECRETARY WILL CHAIR A
VIRTUAL MEETING OF THE UKRAINE DEFENSE CONTACT GROUP. COMING UP, BILLIONS OF EUROS OF
INVESTMENT AS EUROPE LOOKS FOR GROWTH. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> GOOD MORNING, THIS IS
BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE, I’M JOUMANNA BERCETCHE
AND THESE ARE THE STORIES THAT SET YOUR AGENDA. JAPAN’S PRIME MINISTER STAYS ON
AFTER FAILING TO CONTROL THE HOUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
YEARS. EUROPEAN UNION ENVOYS WILL
PREPARE A TARIFF RETALIATION PLAN AS THE U.S.
HARDENS THEIR STANCE. RYANAIR BOOKINGS ARE STRONG
AFTER EUROPE’S BIGGEST BUDGET AIRLINE REPORTS DOUBLE NET
INCOME IN THE FIRST QUARTER. A CHECK ON KEY MARKETS AS WE
TALK ABOUT WALL STREET PULLING BACK FROM THE RECORD HIGHS. EUROPEAN BIG EARNINGS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ALONGSIDE THE ECB MEETING, WE WILL TALK
ABOUT THAT. MIXED PICTURE , EURO IS TRADING SIDEWAYS, BRENT CRUDE UP 4/10 OF 1%, 69
POINT 5 DOLLARS. ONE TOP STORY OVER THE
WEEKEND’S JAPAN’S UPPER HOUSE ELECTIONS.
VALERIE TYTEL, IT IS A NATIONAL HOLIDAY IN JAPAN SO THE NIKKEI
IS NOT OPEN AND IT IS EARLY DAYS TO CLEAN HOW INVESTORS ARE
DIGESTING THIS, BUT IT WAS WHAT WE GOT IN LINE WITH WHAT
PARTICIPANTS EXPECTED? VALERIE: MARKETS WERE BRACING FOR MUCH
WORSE OUT OF THE ELECTIONS IN JAPAN. THE YEN HIGHER ON RELIEF PERHAPS, BUT MARKETS WON’T OPEN
UNTIL TOMORROW. YIELDS ARE 2 BASIS POINTS
HIGHER. WHAT IT MEASN F– MEANS FOR THE MARKETS IS THE WEAKEST JAPANESE GOVERNMENT IN DECADES, A WEAK
COALITION, THROWING A HAMMER INTO THE WORKS WITH U.S.
TRADE TALKS AND THERE IS RISK TO JAPAN FROM THE AUTO TARIFFS. ISHIBA WILL NOT STEP DOWN AND WANTS TO PROTECT JAPAN’S
INTERESTS, BUT THE BIG RISK IS THE LAST THREE LDP PM’S STEPPED
DOWN AFTER LOSING THE HOUSE. SO WELL WILL SEE INSTABILITY.
DAVID: MANY COUNTRIES INCLUDING EUROPE
ARE PREPARING COUNTER MEASURES. HOW WILL THEY THINK ABOUT THE
GROWTH HITS SHOULD THERE BE NO DEAL? VAL: WE DO HAVE A THREAT OF 30% TARIFFS FROM TRUMP AND LAGARDE WARNED RISKS WERE TILTED TO THE
DOWNSIDE AROUND GROWTH AND THE MARKET DOESN’T EXPECT MOVEMENT. THEY EXPECT THE ECB TO MAINTAIN
RATES ON HOLD AT THE ECB MEETING.
MAYBE THEY WANT TO KEEP THE RATE CUT DOOR OPEN, BUT THERE ARE SEVEN WEEKS, AN EXTENDED
HOLIDAY BREAK, COMING UP. DAVID: VAL, THANK YOU. WELL, DOZENS OF GERMAN COMPANIES SEEK TO INVEST
INCLUDING SIEMENS AND DEUTSCHE BANK.
LET’S GET MORE FROM OLIVER CROOK IN BERLIN.
TALK US THROUGH THE PLEDGES THAT THE LARGE GERMAN COMPANIES
ARE ANNOUNCING OR THAT THE MARKET IS EXPECTING? OLIVER: THIS IS THE ERA OF CORPORATE
INVESTMENT, NOT THE 17 TRILLION TRUMP SAYS HAVE BEEN PLEDGED
THOUGH. THIS IS A PITCH TO TURN THE
ECONOMY AROUND WITH UPWARDS OF 1 TRILLION EUROS OF DEBT
SPENDING. THAT IS TO BRING THE ECONOMY INTO THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY AS THEY ARE UNDER THREAT BY THE
TRADE WAR WITH THE U.S. MADE IN GERMANY IS THE
BRAINCHILD OF SIEMENS AND DEUTSCHE BANK. IT IS A QUESTION OF WHAT THE
ECONOMY LOOKS LIKE FIVE OR 10 YEARS FROM NOW. WE DON’T HAVE THE ANSWER YET
AND THAT IS SOMETHING THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO ANSWER.
DAVID: YEAH, PERHAPS YOU CAN PUT SOME
OF THOSE QUESTIONS TO THE GENTLEMAN FROM SIEMENS AND
DEUTSCHE BANK. YOU MENTIONED THEY WILL MEET
WITH THE CHANCELLOR. HOW IMPORTANT IS IT THAT
INITIATIVES LIKE THIS, THAT YOU HAVE BUYING IN FROM INVESTORS?
HOW IMPORTANT IS THAT FOR SUCCESS? OLIVER: IT IS THE FOUNDATION OF MERZ’S
GOVERNMENT, WHICH UNDERSTANDS THE NEEDS OF THE GERMAN ECONOMY.
WHAT MERZ DOESN’T WANT IS ONE TRILLION EUROS OF DEBT SPENDING
THAT BECOMES A SUGAR HIGH. FAILURE WILL MEAN THE ALTERNATIVE FAR RIGHT PARTY MAY
SWOOP IN. HE NEEDS TO PROVE THEM WRONG
WHEN THE FAR RIGHT IS DOING ITS BEST SINCE WWII, SO THAT IS THE
CENTER OF HIS CHANCELLORSHIP. DAVID: OLLIE CROCK, THANK YOU. OLLIE WILL SPEAK TO SEIMENS AND
DEUTSCHE BANK AHEAD OF THE MEETING LATER TODAY. DEUTSCHE BANK IS ONLY ONE FIRM
REPORTING, LET’S LOOK AHEAD TO EARNINGS.
WE BROKE RYANAIR AND LATER WE WILL GET EUROPEAN BANKS.
LET’S START WITH DEUTSCHE BANK, WHAT ARE WE EXPECTING? CHLOE: FOR DEUTSCHE BANK WE GOT A
TASTE OF WHAT IS TO COME WHEN THE CEO MENTIONED A BUMPY,
BUMPY SECOND QUARTER IN TRADING. ADJUSTING EXPECTATIONS DOWN IN
THE TRADING UNIT AND MENTIONING THE ADVISORY BUSINESS HAD WEAK
PERFORMANCE. IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE WEAKER,
BASED ON THAT. THE CYCLE OF EARNINGS UPGRADES
MAY COME TO AN END, FEEDING THROUGH INTO LOWER INCOME AND
PUSHING UP THE COST OF RISK. DAVID: YEAH. >> CORPORATES ARE RESTRUCTURING TO INVEST IN DEFENSE, SO THAT
MIGHT HELP. DAVID: YEAH. I NOTICED HUGE OUTPERFORMANCE FOR THE EUROPEAN BANKS AND U.S.
BANK RESULTS WERE STRONG. HOW WILL THAT READ ACROSS TO OTHER BANKS LIKE UNICREDIT,
NATWEST, BNP? WILL THERE BE SIMILAR THEMES?
CHLOE: SECOND QUARTER FOR THE BANKS IS
COMING OFF THE HEELS OF A STRONG FIRST QUARTER.
IT WAS RESILIENT AND PUSHED SHARE PERFORMANCE UP, BUT THINGS ARE CATCHING UP AND RATE
CUTS ARE FEEDING INTO LOWER EARNINGS, PLUS TARIFFS ARE
IMPACTING DEALS. SO THE READ ACROSS IN THE U.S. MIGHT BE POSITIVE FOR EUROPEAN
BANKS REPORTING THIS WEEK OR BARCLAYS NEXT WEEK. THAT MIGHT BE A POSITIVE AND
U.K. BANKS HAVE STRONG HEDGES TO
SHIELD EARNINGS, SO WE EXPECT GOOD EARNINGS FROM NATWEST.
DAVID: CHLOE MELLY, THANKS! FRENCH GROCERY GROUP IS WORKING ON SALE OF ITALIAN OPPORTUNITIES — OPERATIONS IN
SEVERAL DEALS. ELON MUSK’S
FUEDS IMPACT HIS BUSINESS IN OUR BIG TAKE COMING UP.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ DAVID:
ELON MUSK STARTED HIS STINT AS CLOSE TO THE TOP OF THE WORLD
AS ANY BILLIONAIRE, APPOINTING HIMSELF HEAD OF THE DEPARTMENT
OF GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY WHICH MADE HIM ONE OF THE MOST
POWERFUL IN WASHINGTON, BUT HIS GRANDSTANDING COST HIM DEARLY,
THE SUBJECT OF OUR BIG TAKE ON THE TERMINAL.
HIGHLY RECOMMEND YOU READ IT BUT LET’S SPEAK TO DANNY LEE. ELON MUSK BLURRED THE LINES
BETWEEN BUSINESS AND POLITICS. HOW HAS THAT IMPACTED HIS
COMPANIES? DANNY: HAVING A FRONT ROW SEAT TO THE
WHITE HOUSE, THE BETS IN BACKING TRUMP, THE 300 MILLION
USD WAS WELL SPENT AND INVESTORS WILL COUNT THE COST
OF ELON BEING SO CLOSE TO TRUMP AND WE WILL SEE HOW MUCH ELON’S
MUSKY MAGIC HAS BEEN DAMAGED. TWO OF THE MOST POWERFUL PEOPLE FALLING OUT AND NOW WE SEE THE
THREAT FOR TESLA AND SPACEX, WHICH RELY ON SUBSIDIES, SO THIS IS A CAUTIONARY TALE ABOUT
A FRONT ROW SEAT IN THE WHITE HOUSE. JOUMANNA: THERE WILL BE TESLA EARNINGS
THIS WEEK. WE REPORTED BYD HAS OVERTAKEN TESLA IN THE EU, SO HOW IS THAT
OVERSHADOWING THIS WEEK’S RESULTS? >> TESLA IS FACING A DROP IN
SALES IN MANY MAJOR MARKETS. SALES SLIPPED BY ALMOST 14%, SO
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE IMPACT, WE WILL SEE REVENUE AROUND 23
BILLION USD. THESE ARE VARIOUS ESTIMATES WHIHC THEY — WHICH THEY KEEP
CUTTING. THESE ARE THE LOWESRT EVER, BUT
TESLA OR MUSK COULD HAVE A CLEAN SLATE NOW THAT MUSK HAS
LEFT U.S. GOVERNMENT, SO HE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS DESTINY AND HE WILL HAVE TO TRUN — TURN
IT AROUND. JOUMANNA: THE BAR IS PRETTY LOW AS YOU
SAY. THE BIG TAKE IS UP ON THE TERMINAL NOW.
ALASKA AIR GROUP SAW A GROUNDING AFTER AN IT OUTAGE
IMPACTED OPERATIONS. THEY REQUESTED THE GROUNDING ON
SUNDAY AND WARNED THERE WOULD BE SERVICES IMPACTED THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING. HACKERS ARE LAUNCHING A GLOBAL
ATTACK, U.S. IS INVESTING THE SHAREPOINT
SERVER HACK. THE SOURCE SAYS TENS OF
THOUSANDS OF SUCH SERVERS ARE AT RISK. U.K. PROPERTY SURGE GIVES BUYERS
MORE POWER. THE PRICE DROPPED 1.2% DUE TO
OVER-SUPPLY OF HOMES. THE AGREEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE
ON THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM FOR THE U.K. AND GERMANY. THESE WILL BE SEPERATE FROM
TALKS WITH THE U.S. MORE COMING UP.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ >> THE PRIVATE SECOTR’S NOT
DOING AS WELL AS PEOPLE THINK. NOT PARTICULARLY WELL.
IF YOU WALK ON A LAKE THAT’S FROZEN AND HEAR CRACKS, IT’S TOO LATE WHEN YOU GO THROUGH
THE ICE. JOUMANNA: THAT WAS CHRIS WALLER OF THE
FED. KEY CHARTS AND ANOTHER KEY WEEK
WITH THE ECB MEETING ON THURSDAY. THE REGIONAL VARIATIONS ARE
MINIMAL, SO THE FOCUS WILL BE ON GROWTH, CITING DOWNSIDE RISK AS WELL THINK ABOUT THE AUGUST
1ST TARIFFS DEADLINE. EU BANKS HAVE HAD A STRONG
START TO THE YEAR. SANTANDER OVERTOOK UBS AS THE
LARGEST BANK IN EUROPE AS WE TALK ABOUT STEEP CAPITAL
REQUIREMENTS. LATER THIS WEEK, WE GET RESULTS
FROM THESE BANKS. TESLA EARNINGS AS WELL.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE BLUE LINE IS REPRESENTING 2ND
QUARTER EPS AND IT HAS BEEN CUT AND CUT AND CUT, SO IT IS LOW. PRESSURE ON MUSK TO TURN THE
COMPANY AROUND AS IT HAS BEEN HURT A LOT BY HIM. SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR AMID
THE EARNINGS THIS WEEK. YOU CAN ACCESS THESE CHARTS AND
OTHERS ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL. THERE WILL BE A JOINT SIEMENS
AND DEUTSCHE BANK INTERVIEW AT 7:40 A.M. LONDON TIME.

Bloomberg Daybreak Europe is your essential morning viewing to stay ahead. Live from London, we set the agenda for your day, catching you up with overnight markets news from the US and Asia. And we’ll tell you what matters for investors in Europe, giving you insight before trading begins.

On today’s show, Japan’s Prime Minister addresses the nation after losing his majority in the Upper House. Shigeru Ishiba insists he won’t step down and intends to meet the US President Donald Trump for trade talks.

Also on the programme, Ryanair profit more than doubles. The airline says demand is strong for the crucial summer period, and it plans to claw back almost all of the 7% fare decline on 2024.

Plus, the European Union makes plans for a no-deal scenario in US trade talks. The bloc has already approved potential tariffs on €21B on US goods, and is preparing levies on €72B of additional products including Boeing aircraft, US-made cars and bourbon whiskey.

Today’s guest: Neil Sorahan, Ryanair, CFO

Chapters:
00:00:00 – Daybreak Europe
00:00:56 – Ryanair Profit More Than Doubles; Sees Strong Summer Travel
00:03:38 – Asian Markets
00:05:13 – Japan’s Ishiba Vows to Stay On Despite Historic Election Setback
00:07:57 – Japanese Yen Gains Most vs U.S. Dollar
00:11:02 – Neil Sorahan, Ryanair CFO
00:18:17 – EU To Prepare Retaliation Plan
00:20:58 – Trump, Xi Tipped To Meet Ahead Of Or During APEC Summit: SCMP
00:22:39 – Media Reports Say China Blocking US Commerce Workers From Leaving Country
00:22:54 – Ukraine Says Russia Launches Massive Air Attack
00:23:14 – UK Urges ’50-Day Drive’ To Arm Ukraine
00:26:36 – Yen Advances as Ishiba Holds On in Face of Election Setback
00:28:20 – ECB Set To Deliver Rate Decision On Thursday
00:29:53 – Major German Firms To Pledge Investment
00:33:51 – European Earnings Week Ahead
00:37:45 – Elon Inc. Creaking Under Strain of Musk’s Antics
00:41:40 – Alaska Airlines Asks FAA To Ground Fleet
00:42:04 – Hackers Hit Microsoft Server Software: WaPo
00:42:31 – UK Home Sellers Slash Asking Prices
00:42:55 – Iran To Hold Talks With UK, France, Germany: Report
——–
More on Bloomberg Television and Markets

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