Countering China and Controlling the Pacific: George Friedman on the Australia-Japan Frigate Deal
What does the multi-billion-dollar warship deal between Japan and Australia say about the new geopolitical order forming in the Pacific?
On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the landmark defense cooperation, its impact on regional power dynamics, and how it may alter the posture of major players like China and the US. Also discussed: the future of oil dependency.
Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter for a free download from our Special Collection on the Middle East.
00:00 Introduction and the Australia-Japan Frigate Deal
05:52 Japan and Australia’s Military Evolution
13:22 Comparing Alliances: Pacific vs. Europe
20:50 The Role of India and The Quad
24:09 US Strategy and the Future of the Pacific
40:45 The Geopolitics of Energy and Technology
34 Comments
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Yeah! Make Japanese Empire Great Again! Make British Empire Great Again!
Let's get real about what is happening with regards to the world order. It is not a Trump thing, per se. From the end of the Cold War the US electorate has turned progressively more isolationist and populist. George H. W. Bush, possibly our most experienced president in foreign affairs and government (check out the list of offices he held), lost his reelection bid to Bill Clinton, whose campaign tag line was, "It's the economy, stupid." George W. Bush ran on a platform of reducing foreign entanglements and refraining from "nation building". Then 9/11 happened. The GWoT was a detour. We are now back on track. What I want to stress is that it is the electorate, not Trump, who is driving this change. Trump obviously agrees and is just accelerating it and making it happen. Those within the US that want us to be responsible for the world, the Neocons, are fading from the scene. Without 9/11 they would have no influence.
The situation is evolving faster than navy building timelines. By the time these ships are launched, China may well have broken apart/run out of money/had regime change. Or all three.
The left has long figured out how to replace the sinful oil. It is all about green energy. But after a very long time pushing it, it doesn't look promising.
The old guy does not speak for this administration. He is in the minority that aligns with Australia. While us is aligned with Japan. A small minority.
what happen to QUAD ?? usa will ditch like nato
This would work great if either of these countries had oil
Australia is a insignificant military power.
Japan most deadly weakness is densely populated in volcanic islands that definite will be submerged one day into the Pacific. In the other hand Australia is an open land thinly populated that need immigrants to develope it's economy. Japanese should be encourage to migrate to form their society to merge I to the people down under.
We Indians are so happy to see America going down
I hope they put a lot of drone/ anti-drone tech on those frigates.
When George starts the discussion by describing Australia as being at the southern end of China you know you can’t trust him. Dude, Beijing to Canberra is 9,000km.
Japan sees Australia as a key strategic partner as well.
Almost in every discussion George sees nothing wrong with anything US does, every action of US seems justifiable to him, he also thinks all other countries are so scared of US and the mighty US can run rough shod over everyone. He probably needs to relook at US Vs Iraq, US Vs Afghanistan and now US Vs Iran. I would not call anybody them clear cut dominance or victory. The world will teach US a lesson by debasing the Dollar then American's will realise what it is to borrow at 7% or 9%. The whole economy will become shaky and no one will lend money to US to rebuild its depleted weapons cache.
Great. That was brilliant.
Australia's problem with industrialisation is lack of markets, high wages, and one side of politics trading its industry for primary production on the world stage.
war of 1812, Canada burnt down the first White House 😂
China produces only a small fraction of the oil it consumes, ~15–20%. However, they are building hundreds of nuclear and coal power plants and millions of EV's and charging stations without a need for oil.
7 billion is chick feed compared to US nearly 1 trillion a year.
But good you don't plan to depend on the american titty.
One of the best channels, one of the best thinkers. Thank you, George!
Japan & Australia are 2 QUAD nations.
With the very public spats & strategic divergence between India & the US – the 2 bookends of the Indo- Pacific,Japan & Australia prefer to hold hands to feel safer vs any Chinese streaming into the Tasman Sea or blockading Taiwan.
The nature of G-2 Trump wants with Xi,is not yet clear & at the moment the US is dealing with the Chinese in the area it labels. CENTCOM.
India is watching the progress of battle 😊.
The US shows no interest in retreating to the Western Hemisphere.
Their worry about India is such,they plan on becoming our neighbours in CENTCOM space.
No less than 3 Armadas in play !
The World GDP has moved from Europe to Asia – so the US focus has moved from Europe to Asia.
China is not going to " secure" the Malacca Straits.
Both Indian & Russian strategic assets( RELOS) targeted at Beijing & China's eastern seaboard cities & the Tri- Services command of India based in the Andaman & Nicobar islands itself holds that strait. 😊.Backed by plenty of carrier killer missiles from as far as the Indian mainland.
It's the Indian Ocean,for a reason.Think about it.There is a Persian Gulf,Arabian Sea & then an Indian Ocean….3 US battle carrier groups won't change that fact.The US doesn't dare put boots on the ground in Iran,so it's safe to say they will think twice before attempting such adventures in India( never mind their chap in Manipur) that's way bigger & more strongly defended.
China should remain content with the South China Sea & make friends with its neighbours or suffer the consequences as they all become friends of a rising India as the sun of China fades.
China's Malacca Dilemma is permanent,as is Russia's lack of unrestricted ocean access.
Yes, but…the energy density of oil will keep it around until it's gone. We thought we would detach form oil after the shocks of the '70s. Didn't happen then, won't happen now.
'US & China were never in war' : False
A friendly input. I see a trend: more time to fill than ideas and information. A lot of repetition. Forty minutes for twenty-five minutes worth.
Ships are expensive and take time to build. The ratio of missiles and drones to ships is extremely high and growing. In a war it wouldn't take long to severely reduce the number of ships. And factor in submarines launching torpedoes and missiles, and aircraft launching missiles
Geostrategists never see big changes coming… I think EU is the next big thing
forgot the Japan solider choppered the head off Australian solider? That is not long ago just decades.
George
Your incredible knowledge, insight, and foresight are truly amazing.
Thank you. With gratitude from Japan
I hope this Japanese reaches you.
ジョージさん
あなたの素晴らしい知識と見識と先見性に本当に素晴らしいです。
ありがとう。日本から感謝を込めて
この日本語が伝わると良いのだけれども
Why is China so psychotically hell bent on Taiwan.I would think the larger prize would be to look west at Russia, especially with Russia being so weak right now.
Les citoyens chinois ont déclaré avoir été dupés par le PCC pendant de nombreuses années, mais avoir maintenant compris la vérité et décidé de quitter le parti. Voici leurs déclarations :
Dandan et Longlong, originaires du Hebei, ont déclaré : « Nous n’avons réalisé la supercherie qu’après avoir entendu des amis parler de la tyrannie communiste. N'ayant jamais voyagé à l'étranger et ne sachant pas comment contourner la censure d'Internet, nous étions coupés du monde extérieur et ignorions beaucoup de choses. Maintenant que nous le savons, nous avons décidé de quitter le Parti, la Ligue de la jeunesse et les Jeunes Pionniers ! C'est notre déclaration solennelle ! »
Huang Peng a dit : « Marx était en réalité un sataniste et son porte-parole. Satan est le démon dont parle la foi vertueuse. Le PCC est, en substance, l'incarnation d'un culte diabolique et la source de tout chaos social. En cette ère de décadence, être en phase avec lui mène inévitablement à être enseveli sous son mal. Éveillez votre conscience, quittez le Parti et sauvez-vous. »
Man kann nur hoffen dass diese Art Politik zu machen irgendwann endet und wir einen Schritt in Richtung Zukunft gehen
GF is regularly arguing that Trump's policies are effective, when they are actually chaotic and destructive.