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America’s Future is Already Written – In Japan



America’s Future is Already Written – In Japan

What’s happening in Japan is a preview of where the United States is heading. Jay breaks down how Japan’s crushing debt, collapsing yen, rising borrowing costs, and dependence on imported oil could ripple into American bond markets, the dollar, and the price of hard assets. He explains why Washington already copied Japan’s playbook — zero rates, quantitative easing, yield curve control — and why Tokyo running out of road could signal a much larger financial problem heading for the U.S.

Citations: https://rentry.co/qq5f9cmq

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0:00 – The Canary in the Coal Mine
3:47 – Japan’s Debt Experiment
4:21 – How Japan Avoided Collapse for So Long
6:31 – The Oil Shock Doom Loop
8:46 – The Yen Carry Trade Explained
9:53 – What Happens When the Carry Trade Unwinds
11:07 – The August 2024 Warning Shot
13:20 – Why Japan Is Different From America
14:33 – The Endgame of the Central Bank Playbook
15:25 – What America Can Learn From Tokyo

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23 Comments

  1. @Ian-j7z4p on

    The ONLY reason Japan has been able to manage it's debt is the EXTREME low interest rates. It is difficult to predict what will happen as Japanese interest rates go up – there will be different scenarios.

  2. @Nat_Ryder on

    Japan is like this because Japanese are overly disciplined, patriotic and subservient to their country, they buy Japanese treasuries at miniscule or non existent interest and would not think of investing in US bonds. (That is the majority of Japanese people, while their Oligarchs do the opposite)
    That is why although I admire Japanese discipl

  4. @McCraeMoto1 on

    The US caused the 40 year financial stagnation of the Japanese economy with the implementation of the Plaza accord. Japan was threatening US hegemony with its manufacturing and wealth creation. As is China today. The US forced Japan to alter the value of its currency , buy more US product. And manufacture in the US. The US crippled the Japanese economy to an extent that it could never recover from. Similar to what the US has and is doing to Germany and the EU. If Japan was aloud to flourish it would be the world’s hegemony today. And the US would have been like a proper civilised country. We would not have had the ever ending wars. Gaza would have flourished. The US has poisoned the well we all drink from.

  6. @TarmoHolland on

    Morning Jay, keeping well? A bit off, but brilliant as usual. The Fed (Warsh) does not have Door#2, aka, protecting the Bond Market. That is outside of the Fed purview, mandate. The Fed's responsibilities are (a) Employment and (b) Price stability <interest rates>. The job of protecting the Bond market lies solely with Bessent (aka, find Bond buyers, and don't let anyone sell Bonds). This is why Monte Hall (Trump) wants to merge (illegally) the Fed with Treasury, so the printing press of creating money, is blurred (and unlimited). The economy no longer has a "safe haven" status, Warsh is the option of last resort. The moment Warsh starts printing (more), the greater the damage to the "safe haven" status. Japan has to sell-off. Bottom line.

  9. @TarmoHolland on

    Hey Jay, little add-on. The US has $41T in foreign assets, overseas investors has $69T in US assets. In other words, the US is short $28T, or, what happens if those foreign owned assets were to endure a "fire sale"? If half of the foreign owned assets were blown away, what happens? This is why the US policy of stealing other sovereign funds, such as Russia or Iran or or or (it's a long list) compounds the problem, and lures those foreign owners to punish the US with an asset sell-off. That's when the US GDP goes from 120% to 220%. See the problem? Thoughts?????

  12. @BananaAircon on

    Both USA and Japan are heading to the downward spiral. US will still survive for now due to its geographical, demographic and vast resources. Japan has nothing at all. How long will they survive at the top? We will see

  18. @dorukcider4117 on

    The problem I see is that compared to Japan US has foreign creditors, a reserve currency to defend, no private savings of its citizens and most importantly the stable politics that Japan had. The question is can the the US citizens survive this slow death in the first place and we already see investors are not that trusting anymore from the bond yields. That means that money printing inflation will also drive up bonds prices whitout an interest rate hike. I only see a fast death and a fast death