中国への直接投資82％減。海外勢は中国に投資不適格の評価。日本の見直し買いが反映、東証の時価総額はアジア首位に返り咲いた

中国への直接投資82％減。海外勢は中国に投資不適格の評価。日本の見直し買いが反映、東証の時価総額はアジア首位に返り咲いた

Hello everyone. This is Kaoru Kamigawa. The topic I would like to discuss this time is the news that investment in China from all over the world is declining because it is considered that there is something wrong with the Chinese economy.

Up until now , I have argued that the Chinese economy has a huge problem of bad loans, which is slowing down domestic consumption, and that this situation will become even more serious in the future. This is not just my imagination; this recognition is becoming more and more widespread in the business world.

Let ‘s take a look at the news that clearly shows what companies in each country are doing, assuming that there is something wrong with the Chinese economy . Direct investment in China fell by 82%. Foreign investment is at its lowest level in 30 years.

According to the balance of payments statistics for 2023 released by China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange on the 18th, direct investment by foreign companies was approximately 4.9 trillion yen, down 82% from the previous year.

This is the lowest level in 30 years , due to a decline in new investment and a move to recover funds through withdrawals and business downsizing . This is the trend in the amount of direct investment in China.

Since the beginning of the year 2000, China has been attracting investment from all over the world. As the world’s factory, many companies have expanded into China, established joint ventures, and built numerous production bases. We have also actively embarked on business within China.

The amount of direct investment into China has therefore remained very strong even during the coronavirus pandemic, reaching its highest level in 2021. However, the ensuing policy tightening by the Xi Jinping administration suddenly dampened the desire to invest in China. Even if you compare it with 2021,

Direct investment will decrease by almost half in 2022, and in 2023, it will be in a truly dire situation. It has become clear that foreign companies are less willing to invest due to rising geopolitical risks and the enforcement of the revised anti-espionage law

. In the July-September period of 2023, the outflow of funds exceeded the inflow, marking the first negative figure since 1998, when statistics are available. In the October-December period, it turned positive by $17.5 billion, and although it remained positive for the entire year, it fell to about 10% of its peak in 2021.

In addition to tightening U.S.-led export controls to China regarding cutting-edge technologies such as semiconductors, economic activity within China is being tightened from the perspective of emphasizing national security. Against the backdrop of the prolonged real estate recession, the growth potential of the Chinese market is showing signs of slowing, and

Foreign companies appear to be becoming cautious about investing in China. As I mentioned earlier when I talked about the world economy, India exists as an emerging country that can replace China, and in addition to India, there are various countries such as Indonesia, Brazil, and Vietnam. We are looking forward to further growth.

Of course, each country has its own problems, and it will not necessarily achieve rapid growth that will replace China all at once, but at least the domestic market in China is currently cooling down. Currently, there is no appetite for investment in China, and it

Is only natural that direct investment into China has decreased significantly. A large part of what is causing this trend is that it is seen as a policy failure by President Xi Jinping in the first place, and this story did not come naturally, but rather that

China’s domestic economy has been artificially depressed. This situation is not improving and should be seen as worsening in the future. Of course, China itself has not said such a thing, and at the Davos Conference, an economic forum held in Europe and the United States, it was said that

China’s economic condition is now at the bottom, and that it is likely that it will pick up in the future and continue to develop. We are talking about achieving one more level of achievement . Financial and economic analysts in Europe and the United States do not trust China’s statements at all,

Which is why analytical reports for investors and companies include stories that warn against investing in China. is also available. It can be said that the situation in Japan is different from the situation in China. TSE ranks first in Asia in market capitalization. China’s economic slowdown reverses Shanghai.

It was revealed on the 19th that the total market capitalization of stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange ranked first in Asia. This is the first comeback in three and a half years since it was overtaken by China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange in July 2020. In response to the slowdown in the Chinese economy,

The inflow of funds, mainly from overseas investors, shifted from China to Japan, leading to a reversal. According to statistics from the International Federation of Exchanges, as of the end of January, the Japan Exchange Group, led by the TSE, had about 950 trillion yen, while

Shanghai’s sales were lower than that, and the TSE had risen to fourth place in the world. A strategist at Nomura Securities analyzes the background as follows: “China’s economy is not doing well due to the worsening real estate recession, and

The government is tightening regulations on IT companies, etc., which is causing investors to become anxious.” Due to geopolitical risks such as the US-China conflict, “There are moves to build supply chains that exclude China, making it a tough investment target.”

This is the TSE stock price. This is the 1-year movement of the Nikkei average, a representative index. The Nikkei average is currently at the same level as during the bubble period. However, some listed companies have repeatedly increased sales and profits, and their corporate structure is clearly better than during the bubble period.

Furthermore, the Japanese economy as a whole is currently experiencing a weak yen. Among listed companies, those in the automobile industry that particularly benefit from a weaker yen, such as the automobile industry, have recorded extremely strong performance, and

Toyota Motor Corporation has a market capitalization of over 50 trillion yen, prompting renewed “repurchasing.” I’m here. It takes time for things like international reputations and corporate trends to connect with each of us in our individual lives. For example,

When we interview people on the street and ask them, “The Nikkei average has risen significantly. Does that mean everyone’s life has improved?” Sho. However, numerically speaking, Japan’s economy is not bad at all. Listed companies have repeatedly increased their sales and profits, and

Not only large companies but also small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are hiring new graduates very well . This is completely different from the current situation where most new graduates are unable to find employment .

In fact, the employment offer rate is extremely high, and people are complaining that there is a shortage of manpower. No matter how many people there are, if a company’s performance is poor, they won’t hire people in the first place.

It is enough to run a company with the current workforce, and if the economy deteriorates further, companies will have to lay off workers instead of hiring new employees. If you watch the current news in Japan, you won’t hear about companies going through restructuring one after another .

In fact, in most cases, the more successful a company is, the more they want to hire more people, but they are unable to attract enough people. Also, for export-oriented companies, a weak yen is a weapon, but at the same time, for us citizens, a weak yen does not necessarily mean profits.

However, in the case of Japan, most of its energy resources are imported from overseas, so the weaker the yen is, the more likely it is that energy will become expensive . This also brings about higher costs in the distribution of goods, so

A wave of price increases will also come to foods and other items that are likely to experience price increases directly in daily life . Therefore, even if it is good as an economic indicator, the current evaluation of Japan’s economy is that it is

Time to take policies one step further in order for it to lead to the prosperity of the people . But at least we don’t have a very problematic situation like China, we have a situation where the overall situation is good, but it doesn’t connect to the lives of the people,

And this one loop is missing. It can be said that current Japanese politics means that something has to be done. Generally speaking, the worse the economy is, the more the government is exposed to criticism from the people. However, although the overall situation is not bad, the

Current approval rating of the Kishida administration is extremely low. For example, recently, there have been cases where neither the prosecutors nor the tax office took any action regarding the issue of politicians’ slush funds.On the other hand, the people are now approaching the time to file their tax returns, and

They are making sure to pay their taxes properly. is required. Considering the current situation where politicians do not pay their taxes in detail, yet the people are harshly punished, it is no wonder that the current government’s approval rating is low.

While the Chinese economy is stumbling due to the mismanagement of the Xi Jinping administration, it is essential that we come up with policies that will rebuild Japan’s economic strength and allow many Japanese people to feel that the economy is doing well. I believe

That Japan is currently in a very difficult situation for its people, as it is evaluated as not much different from the terrible Xi Jinping administration . What did you think when you heard this news? China’s economy is currently in serious trouble.

On the other hand, in Japan, although the economic situation is not so bad, many people feel that there are many problems with the current situation and are struggling to make ends meet. Is it wrong that both China and Japan feel that politics is holding back the economy ? What did you all think?

Please feel free to comment. Thank you for watching the video until the end. If you haven’t subscribed to the channel, please do so. After watching the video, please click the rating button and leave a comment with your thoughts. See you again in the next video. See you again!

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