Japan Is About to Pop the Biggest Bubble in History… And It Takes Us With It
The yen just hit a 40-year low and Japan is trapped. Whether they hike or freeze, it ends the same way: the pin that pricks our bubble.
Tonight’s episode is sponsored by NetSuite. For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, Go to http://netsuite.ai/gold
Tonight’s episode is also sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosm
Investors are far too complacent about risks that are now hiding in plain sight. The AI trade cracked this week: Alphabet fell 10% after announcing even higher CapEx, Oracle is down 41% on the year, Meta and Amazon fell, and Microsoft is nearly in a bear market. SpaceX now trades 49% below its post-IPO high with its float set to jump from 5% to 40% by year end, and Tesla dropped 18%, costing Elon Musk nearly $100 billion in a week. Peter Schiff compares the roughly three-quarters of a trillion dollars in annual AI CapEx to the dot-com build-out, where the early favorites went bankrupt and took their vendors down with them.
The bigger danger is Japan. The yen fell to a 40-year low against the dollar, the 30-year JGB yield hit an all-time high near 4%, and with debt above 200% of GDP and a policy rate still at just 1%, Japan is trapped. Whether the Bank of Japan finally hikes aggressively or stays timid, the result spills into the United States, potentially forcing the world’s largest holder of US Treasuries to dump its $1.1 trillion position. Schiff calls Japan the pin that pricks the far bigger US bubble. Meanwhile the US 30-year yield hit a 20-year high of 5.16% on more than four times the debt of 2006, oil is up 30% in July guaranteeing a hotter CPI, and gold rose on the week even as bonds and stocks fell, with the miners signaling a bottom. He closes on why record-low jobless claims are meaningless in a gig economy and why Trump’s new slave-labor tariffs are an unconstitutional tax on Americans.
Chapters:
00:00 Japan Sparks US Crisis
00:41 AI CapEx Reality Check
07:51 AI Bubble Parallels
13:03 Gold Miners Rebound
19:17 Oil Bonds Warning Signs
32:16 Japan Debt Rate Trap
34:36 Weak Yen Trade Deficits
37:22 Japan Creditor Status Slips
41:22 Two Japan Crisis Paths
44:26 US Vulnerability Dominoes
45:21 Unemployment Claims Hype
47:20 Why Claims Mislead
51:37 New Tariffs Legal Workaround
59:03 Wrap Up Subscribe Call
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– Tonight’s episode is sponsored by NetSuite. For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, Go to http://netsuite.ai/gold
– Tonight’s episode is also sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosm
American workers spend too much money on taxes, medical insurance/healthcare, and school loans to be savers like the Japanese.
The funny thing about Elon Musk is how dependent on welfare he is. Tesla has only ever been cash flow positive thanks to state subsidies. Adding to that, Tesla has made about $38 billion in profits during its whole existence… and that is all from these subsidies! Why would you give Musk any money?
BLS employment data is a waste of time. It is based on the kind of jobs economy that existed 20 years ago.
bla bla and? been hearing pop pop pop for many months now
the drop in bitcoin is no different than the drop in gold and miners. normal volatility in a bull market. yet to you a 50% drop in bitcoin is proof it is going to zero while a 50% drop in miners gets the "yeah but they're still up over X time period" argument. all your pro gold arguments apply to bitcoin too, but you dont see it.
Socialism always fail, always! and MAGA-Socialism (=big increase in TAXES paid by consumers, aka Tariffs) won't be an exception! Reagan explained it so well just some decades ago!
Peter reads Shakespeare, judging by the book behind him. I like it.
They spent $1T this year but back in 2019 that's only about $15B. LOL
Holy hair line. 😮
this guy lost his ass in gold in the first half of the year buying it hand over fist like he always does now hes down 30 percent. and still saying doom and gloom.
Keep up the good work!!!!!
And if people flood to Chinese AI then that's the free market fully working as yanks bang on about 😂
I'm confused who's getting pricked here.
Dear Peter (@peterschiff) – The real bubble isn’t AI itself—it’s the assumption that hardware scaling is the only path to progress. We’ve seen this movie before: mainframes crushed by PCs, CDs by MP3s, and now cloud giants betting on ever-bigger data centers. Each time, software or a smarter architecture flipped the script. The next breakthrough could come from anywhere. What if it’s the AI equivalent of the MP3? Suddenly, today’s hardware kings won’t just slow down; they’ll be worth pennies on the dollar.
goldmember
Like how SimpleSwap simplified swap with 2,800+ assets.
Debt market will never bring anything down
Japan pipping the bubble, lol didnt they warn us; we buried them with the "Bombs" , they woukd bury us with economics
All these experts that know the market so well get Japan wrong. They been saying it's the end for years. They look at the math and logic and see how bad it is but they are missing a variable that is specifically unique in Japan. The Japanese people are different. These people are very patriotic and believe in doing the right thing to help each other. They can get away with some of this stuff that would absolutely look crazy anywhere else. They are together, we are greedy and very independent
Peter is great and spot on. Have followed his advice for years. But his constant lip smacking after every two sentences or so is EXTREMELY annoying. Hope he get over this vert bad habit
Same narrative over and over and over again
Doom! Doom and Gloom! Keep it up. Schiff has prediction 900 out of the last 3 recessions.
trump is a treasonous tyrant
Holy mouth smacks
Did….did this old white guy just say that slaves don’t work hard, they do the minimum amount of work possible and that they WANT to get fired?